Market consensus was for  10.8% , highest in more than 14 years

–CIPS/Markit Manufacturing PMI 51.2 Vs Revised 51.5 In February
–But Input Cost Pressures At Seven-Month High – Mainly Due Oil

LONDON (MNI) – UK manufacturing saw its strongest growth in 10
months, according to the latest Markit/Chartered Institute of
Purchasing and Supply survey, published by Reuters.

The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index rose to a ten-month high of 52.1 in March, from
a revised reading of 51.5 in February.

Markit pointed out that the PMI has now signalled expansion for
four successive months, with its average reading in Q1 2012 (51.8) the
highest since the second quarter of last year.

Markit warned, however, that the increase in output was heavily
supported by a running down in ‘backlogs of work’ and record inventory
building. It also said that input costs rose to a 7-month high due to
high oil and metal prices.

Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, said:

“UK manufacturing has made a brighter-than-expected start to 2012,
with PMI data pointing to output growth of around 0.3% in the first
quarter. This is obviously nowhere near a strong pace, but it is at
least sufficient to prevent the sector from remaining a drag on broader
GDP growth…

“A major cause of concern among manufacturers is the recent upsurge
in input prices, which mainly reflects high oil prices. While there are
few signs currently of this passing through to factory gate prices, it
is creating an unwelcome pressure on margins as strong competition
restricts firms’ pricing power”.

–London newsroom: +44 207 862 7492; email: dthomas@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$]

FTSE down -0.3%, DAX down -0.2% and CAC 40 down -0.6%.

EUR/USD rally splutters to a halt, presently back down at 1.3355 from session high 1.3380.

Where was it I mentioned the sell orders clustered?……..oh yer 1.3380/00.  Go figure

Summertime and the living is easy………..

I nearly forgot, some talk now of buy stops through 1.3380.  Personally can’t imagine they’re too hefty.   What a silly place to put a stop loss buy order

Market consensus was for  50.7. highest reading since May last year

Better reading driven by new orders index up at 52.7 from 50.5 in Feb, highest since Mar 2011

Cable ‘s taken out the 1.6050 barrier to a fresh day’s high of  1.6059

Presently at 316 bps from the  332 I jotted down first thing.

Spanish/German 10 year govt bond yield spread narrows to 341 bps from early 355

Will be helping support EUR/USD which is up at 1.3373.

Been up to 1.6043 this morning from early session lows around 1.5970. Middle Eastern names have been the buyers but there’s also some talk of a major European name and an Asian sovereign slowing the move higher towards a barrier at 1.6050.

The market closed on Friday above the 200 wk MA at 1.5996 which should trigger a potentially bullish signal

The PMI due out in few mins is expected  50.7 against last month’s 51.2 release

In line with flash estimate and as expected.

Down from flash estimate of 47.6 and a 33-month low.

German March final manufacturing PMI 48.4,  up marginally from flash 48.1

From 47.8 in February and very slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of 47.5.

EUR/USD is slowly grinding higher, presently at 1.3362.

Sell orders clustered 1.3380/00 ahead of 1.3400 barrier option interest.  Talk of buy stops through 1.3405.

• No need to be pessimistic over Japan’s economic outlook

Overnight release of tankan had manufacturing sentiment coming in at -4, unchanged from December and weaker than median forecast of -1.

The weaker than expected data has fuelled expectations of further early BOJ monetary easing, which has helped lend USD/JPY support.

Stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 49.5.

Down from +4.7% in January.

Down from 45.0 in February and lowest read since December.

FRANCE DATA: March new car registrations -23.5% y/y in nominal terms;
workday-adjusted -20.0 y/y
- 1Q nominal registrations -21.7% y/y, workday-adjusted -22.9% y/y

Producer Prices Retail Sales
– February – – February -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 0.5 3.4 -0.3 -1.2
High forecast 1.0 4.0 0.2 0.0
Low forecast 0.4 3.3 -0.5 -2.0
Previous period 0.7 3.7 0.3 0.0
-
Number of responses 8 7 8 4
-
4Cast 0.4 3.3 0.2 N/A
Barclays Cap. N/A N/A -0.5 -2.0
BNP Paribas 0.5 3.5 0.1 N/A
Capital Economics 0.5 3.5 -0.5 -1.8
Citi 0.4 3.4 -0.3 N/A
Commerzbank N/A N/A N/A N/A
DZ Bank N/A N/A N/A N/A
Danske N/A N/A -0.2 N/A
ING 0.5 3.4 0.1 0.0
LBBW 0.8 N/A N/A N/A
Natixis N/A N/A N/A N/A
Soc. Generale 0.4 3.4 -0.3 -0.6
UBS N/A N/A N/A N/A
West LB 1.0 4.0 N/A N/A
–

Unemployment
– February -
(%)

Median Forecast 10.8
High forecast 10.8
Low forecast 10.7
Previous period 10.7
-
Number of responses 11
-
4Cast 10.7
Barclays Cap. 10.7
BNP Paribas 10.8
Capital Economics 10.8
Citi 10.8
Commerzbank N/A
DZ Bank N/A
Danske 10.7
ING 10.7
LBBW 10.8
Natixis 10.8
Soc. Generale 10.8
UBS N/A
West LB 10.8

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, March 30.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Industrial Industrial
Orders Production
– February – – February -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 1.6 -4.9 -0.4 0.6
High forecast 2.0 -1.2 1.3 2.3
Low forecast 0.2 -5.8 -1.3 -1.8
Previous period -2.7 -4.9 1.6 -1.8
-
Number of responses 12 6 12 8
-
4Cast 0.9 N/A N/A N/A
Barclays Cap. 0.2 -1.2 0.3 -0.2
BNP Paribas 2.0 N/A 1.0 N/A
Capital Economics 1.0 -5.8 -0.8 0.0
Citi 1.0 -5.8 1.2 2.1
Commerzbank N/A N/A -0.5 0.3
DZ Bank 1.2 N/A -1.2 N/A
Danske N/A N/A N/A N/A
ING 2.0 -4.9 -1.0 2.3
LBBW 2.0 N/A 1.0 N/A
Natixis 2.0 -4.9 1.3 2.1
Soc. Generale 2.0 -4.5 -1.3 -1.8
UBS 0.5 N/A -0.2 N/A
West LB 2.0 N/A -0.8 0.8

—————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, March 30.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Expects to fall to 0.5%/GDP in 2013.

Way to go Cyprus!!

Says Simon Nixon at the WSJ.

From 49.7 in February,  first growth since October.

Hooray we like a bit of good Irish news here at ForexLive, to be sure.

EUR/USD touch firmer at 1.3345.

BERLIN (MNI) – The head of Germany’s Ifo economic research
institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, sees no end to the Eurozone’s sovereign
debt crisis.

“One has to fear that the current account deficits will remain for
a longer time and that the debt crisis in the southern [European] states
will worsen again,” Sinn told German business weekly Wirtschaftswoche in
an interview published Monday.

The peripheral Eurozone countries have not yet been able to improve
their competitiveness sufficiently, he argued.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,MFX$$$]

The Japanese yen fell this week as market sentiment was swinging back and forth among pessimism and optimism, but ended the week leaning to optimistic outlook for Europe and for the global economy in the whole.(...)
Read the rest of Yen Posts Losses as Week Ends on Optimistic Note (170 words)

By Suzanne Cosgrove

CHICAGO (MNI) – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana
Kocherlakota late Saturday said members of the Federal Reserve’s
policymaking committee hold varying views “on what inflation looks
like,” but stressed that a 2% rate remains the target.

Speaking to a meeting of the Midwest Economics Association,
Kocherlakota reiterated in prepared remarks his point made earlier this
month that there are limits to what the Fed can achieve on its own to
reduce to reduce unemployment.

Kocherlakota in a March 20 speech that used the same econometric
models that he discussed Saturday said the Fed can, by lowering the real
interest rate, influence demand for goods and services and indirectly
help reduce unemployment in that way. But it has much less impact on
demand for labor.

In addition, he noted in his presentation Saturday that the Fed’s
models look at both real and nominal wages, but it is not always obvious
what the impact of inflation will be on real wages.

Kocherlakota was one of three Federal Reserve Bank presidents who
dissented against easing measures adopted by the Fed’s policymaking
Federal Open Market Committee last August and September.

Taking a question from the audience about the impact of rising gas
prices on inflation models, Kocherlakota acknowledged that it is
important how people’s expectations factor into their response to higher
prices, but when pressed by MNI for his on response to the “stickiness”
of the data, he said he had no comment.

** MNI Chicago Bureau **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$]

“FXDD Master Live” is coming to Miami, Florida
When: April 21st, 2012

• A full day of live training with FXDD’s Greg Michalowski and James Chen 
• Hands-on, intensive learning environment
• Beautiful hotel location
• Complimentary self-parking pass
• Free refreshments
• Trading workbook
• Certificate of completion
• Closing cocktail reception
• Free continuing education webinar
• FXDD gift bag

What is the tuition fee:

Since FXDD is committed to your success in trading, we will waive the tuition fee for our existing account holders and for new traders who open a new FXDD trading account.

To sign up or for more information, please go to www.fxddmasterslive.com today. Space is limited and we are already near our capacity – so do not delay.  See you in Miami!