The revision in CPI this morning in Asia  and poor housing data has put Ozzie into a skid. The major leg down this morning from the 1.0350 area  is being attributed to some on going selling from  a sovereign name , and  some aggressive buying in EUR/AUD from a US investment bank. Ozzie’s been down as [...]

July preliminary: +1.0% m/m, +4.2% y/y MNI survey median: +1.4% m/m, +4.4% y/y MNI survey range: -0.5% to +2.5% m/m June: -0.8% m/m (revised from -0.7%) May: +0.2% m/m (unrevised) April: +0.2% m/m (unrevised) March: -0.1% m/m (unrevised) February: +0.5% m/m (unrevised) – PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone industry output bounced back less than generally expected [...]

EMU DATA: July industry output sa +1.0% m/m, wda +4.2% y/y-Eurostat – EMU July industry output m/m below MNI median fcast (+1.5%) – EMU June ind output rev down -0.8% m/m, +2.6% y/y (-0.7%,+2.9%) – EMU July industry output +0.5% vs 2q avg; 1q +0.3% q/q – EMU July 3mm avg (May-July:April-June) +0.1% after June [...]

Yes it is……. We must be better at implementation of our decisions in the European Union (err, yes) Certain that a default or exit of Greece from euro zone would carry dramatic costs, not only for Greece, but also euro zone and global partners

The Bk of Portugal Governor is attempting to avert the possibility of a default, and sees a need to consider the introduction of Eurobonds despite Germany’s opposition. Adds, Portugals’s banking system is doing fine….

Weaker than median forecasts of +1.5%, +4.6% respectively.

–Aug Claimant Count Unemployment +20,300 m/m; Rate 4.9% –Jul Average Weekly Earnings +2.8% vs +2.7% in June –Jul Average Weekly Earnings ex bonuses +2.1% vs +2.3% in May –May-Jul ILO Unemployment +80,000; Rate 7.9% –Jul Claimant Count revised to +33,700 m/m from +37,100 LONDON (MNI) – Unemployment rose at its fastest pace for two years [...]

EU based on principle of no exit and no defaults Unthinkable for Greece to leave euro under the current treaty Country solvency based on level of debt and interest rates Uncertainty of reaction of creditors to a default is “enormous” Guess some changes are going to have to be made then…..

Contagion risk is enormous….no prizes for stating the obvious, but doesn’t help the EUR/USD now down around  1.3635

Better than median forecast of +35k. Claimant count rate 4.9%, unchanged from previous month and in line with Reuters’ median forecast.  Some people had been looking for an increase to 5.0% though. Ilo jobless +80,000 in 3 months to July. Unemployment rate unchanged at 7.9%, as expected.

Above  1.3670  after recent highs of  1.3678 We’re down at 1.3642

For the NY 1000 EDT cut:- USD/JPY- 76.00, 76.80, 77.15, 77.25, 78.00 GBP/USD- 1.5600 AUD/USD- 1.0300, 1.0350 EUR/USD- 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3900, 1.4000

BERLIN (MNI) – The economic panel of the German Banking Association (BDB) on Wednesday lowered its GDP forecasts for Germany to +2.8% this year and +1.1% in 2012, from the +3.0% and +2.3% figures it had projected in March. “After the swift and strong recovery from the recession, the growth outlook has clouded surprisingly quickly [...]

To 2.8% for 2011 from previous 3.0% To 1.1% for 2012 from previous 2.3% 

DAX up +0.1%, CAC 40 up +0.6%, FTSE up +0.6% Spain’s IBEX up +1.3%,  Portugal’s PSI 20 up +0.7%, Italy’s FTSE MIB up +1.1% And the suns out in sunny Suffolk!!!

Investors will trust us only when we show that we can deliver on our commitments The European Commission will soon present options for the introduction of euro bonds Some euro bond proposals could be implemented under current treaty, others would need treaty change EUR/USD will be garnering a lift from the above comments re euro [...]

Financial tensions over Greece could affect official growth forecasts for 2011

–Downplays Rating Downgrade of Societe Generale, Credit Agricole PARIS (MNI) – ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer reiterated Wednesday that Greece has the capacity to meet the deficit targets set down in its bailout program, and he downplayed the latest credit downgrade early Wednesday of leading French banks Societe Generale and Credit Agricole. The best [...]

Sovereign debt crisis in some countries worsening (tin hat time) China “always” confident in euro Beijing to enhance macro-economic policy coordination with Europe Meanwhile China ForMin says Asked about possible US legislation on yuan, says stable economic ties benefit both countries Urges U.S. lawmakers not to resort to “excuses” for trade protectionism