If not today, maybe over weekend; ”we are VERY CLOSE” EUR/USD at session high 1.3144 on comments.

Actions have helped bond markets Must build further confidence in Europe ESM will have a capital base of 700 bln Euros and a lending capacity of 500 bln Need stronger  financial firewalls Focus needed on reforms, growth and employment Vital to avoid a credit crunch Leaders will discuss EFSF, ESM  in coming weeks, will finalize some [...]

– M3 Up +1.6% Y/Y; Slowest Since January 2011 December sa M3: +1.6% y/y M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.1% y/y SA private loans: +1.0% y/y MNI survey median: December sa M3: +2.2% y/y M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.3% y/y SA private loans: +1.5% y/y MNI survey range: December sa M3: +1.7% to +2.4% y/y M3 [...]

Seeing more confidence in Italy, Spain now ECB is doing the necessary, but must avoid false incentives Greece must deliver to regain confidence, no firewall will work if real problems are not addressed We don’t expect Greece to default  Reuters reporting.

Will help confidence return.

Greek objective is 120% debt /GDP ratio Concern over Greece return to markets, IMF’s business is to avoid ” huge volatility” and “ instability” More funding needed for Europe EU partners have to focus on better integration No countries can be in debt “forever” Greece needs courage to get itself  and programs back on track

Ouch!!, that’s a severe old haircut….. Short back and sides

Heading down towards the weekend lows around 1.2273  with a slide back to 1.2295 just now  after stalling around 1.2350 in Asia. The move’s helping AUD/USD to chew through the offers around 1.0650, but more solid resistance is expected up around the recent high of 1.0688. ( note also that China was seen  selling in [...]

EMU DATA: EMU Dec sa M3 growth +1.6% y/y; MNI median fcst +2.2% y/y: ECB

Hesse CPI January: -0.3% m/m +1.9% y/y December: +0.5% m/m, +1.7% y/y — Pan-German CPI December: +0.7% m/m, +2.1% y/y — BERLIN (MNI)- Consumer prices in the western German state of Hesse fell 0.3% in January, which still lifted the annual inflation rate to +1.9% from +1.7%, the state statistics office said Friday. Downward pressure [...]

Spain 2011 deficit overrun damaged credibility Not committed to any minimum interest rate

Oct-Dec average 2.1% y/y vs 2.5%  Sep-Nov Dec private loan growth 1.0% y/y

If my life depended on getting the direction of the next 30/50 pips in EUR/USD correct, I’d be in serious danger……. We sit at 1.3105, unchanged from when I sat down YESTERDAY!!!!! Where’s Joe, I think I’m gonna go play hookey…

5 and 7 years apparently. They should get themselves some of those Portuguese ones too

Portuguese/German 10 year govt bond yield spread has widened out to 1301 at writing from the 1292 I jotted down first thing. EUR/USD continues to bore the pants off me, back up around 1.3102. Is it home time yet?

We’re at 1.2072. Barriers noted at 1.2050 AND 1.2025.

Weaker than median forecast of -0.05. EUR/CHF tiny bit firmer at 1.2070.

Guess market got a little unnerved by Czech central bank governor’s Greece comment. Go figure. We’re at 1.3088. Buy orders clustered 1.3060/70, sell stops through 1.3050.  

Whatever….. Official thinks Greece would be better off economically outside euro area. He thinks a credible exit (whatever that is) wouldn’t have to affect other countries in the currency bloc (yer right) Governor interviewed by Czech newspaper. EUR/USD steady at 1.3105 in comatose trade.

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!! Italian Dipartimento Del Tesoro to sell 8 bln of a new 6 month BOT maturing July 31 and 3.0 bln of a new flexi BOT maturing December 27. Results due around 10:10 GMT.