Ifo – May
business current expec-
morale conditions tations

Median Forecast 109.2 117.0 102.2
High forecast 109.9 118.0 102.5
Low forecast 108.7 116.8 101.5
Previous period 109.9 117.5 102.7
-
Number of responses 20 9 9
-
4Cast 108.8 117.0 102.2
Barclays Cap. 109.2 117.0 101.7
Berenberg Bank 109.1 117.6 101.7
BNP Paribas 109.2 116.8 102.2
BoA-ML 109.0 N/A N/A
Capital Economics 109.0 N/A N/A
Citi 108.7 N/A N/A
Commerzbank 109.5 N/A N/A
DZ Bank 109.4 116.9 102.4
ING 109.4 117.0 102.5
Investec 109.9 N/A N/A
Lloyds Bank 109.7 N/A N/A
LBBW 109.5 N/A N/A
Morgan Stanley 109.0 N/A N/A
Soc. Generale 109.0 117.0 101.5
Standard Chartered 108.9 116.8 101.8
UBS 109.9 118.0 102.2
Unicredit 109.7 N/A N/A
West LB 109.4 N/A N/A
Westpac 108.9 N/A N/A
–

PMI (flash)
– May –
mfg svc

Median Forecast 47.0 52.0
High forecast 48.5 52.2
Low forecast 45.7 50.9
Previous period 46.2 52.2
-
Number of responses 13 12
-
4Cast 46.0 52.2
Barclays Cap. 46.0 51.9
Berenberg Bank 45.7 51.5
BoA-ML 47.0 N/A
Commerzbank 47.0 52.0
ING 46.5 52.0
Investec 46.2 52.2
LBBW 47.0 51.0
Soc. Generale 48.5 52.0
Standard Chartered 47.0 51.0
UBS 46.8 50.9
Unicredit 48.0 52.0
West LB 47.0 52.0

—————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, May 18.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

PMI (flash) Sentiment
– May – – May -
mfg svc business consumer

Median Forecast 47.0 45.5 88 93
High forecast 47.5 47.0 89 95
Low forecast 45.8 44.4 86 88
Previous period 46.9 45.2 88 95
-
Number of responses 10 10 8 13
-
ABN AMRO N/A N/A 87 93
Barclays Cap. 46.2 45.5 N/A 94
Berenberg Bank 46.0 46.2 N/A 88
BNP Paribas N/A N/A 89 95
BoA-ML 47.0 N/A N/A N/A
Capital Economics N/A N/A 87 93
Citi N/A N/A 88 93
Commerzbank 47.0 46.0 N/A 95
DZ Bank N/A N/A N/A 93
ING 45.8 45.0 N/A 93
Investec 46.9 45.2 88 N/A
Lloyds Bank N/A N/A 87 N/A
Morgan Stanley N/A N/A 86 N/A
Soc. Generale 47.2 45.8 N/A 94
Standard Chartered 47.5 45.5 N/A 94
UBS 47.4 44.4 N/A 95
Unicredit N/A 47.0 N/A N/A
West LB 46.5 45.0 89 93
———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, May 18.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

UK DATA: April gross mortgage loans Stg10.2bln Vs Stg12.6bln Mar: CML

Some buy stops were taken out through 101.50 to  a day’s high of 101.58 but  momentum seems to be lacking, despite ongoing real money demand in USD/JPY which is continuing to chew through the exporter offers with a recent high of 79.41

Talk of some buy stops also sitting in the cross up through 101.70 now,  ahead of better offers 101.90/00 and more buy stops just above

• ECB has taken decisive action in maintaining price stability
• Sees  the eurozone inflation expectations stabilizing after LTO’s
• ECB can withdraw special monetary measures at any time, using liquidity- absorbing instruments
• ESM must be in place by July 1
• Debate between budget consolidation and growth is wrong. ..Both are needed
• Extra growth pact should include reforms of goods markets, financing and labour
• Financing could come from  ‘EIB project bonds’

• Will address issues over Bankia and other Spanish banks in Parliament on Wednesday
• Bankia needs Eur 7-7.5 bln for new provision  rules
• Doesn’t expect much more of a rise in mortgage defaults, remains ‘calm’ over residential mortgages
• Will announce bank auditors later today
• Q2 Spanish GDP likely to similar to Q1

Climbed up to 79.32 recently from around 79.15 when i fell out of bed this morning and being told it’s real money buyers behind the move.

Hardly exciting stuff i know;…

There are offers running up to 79.50 from exporters to chew through with some tech resistance above around 79.75/80 (tenkan line )

Germany’s  aiming to sell some  Eur 3 bln  of new 1yr Bubills, results around 0930GMT

Holland’s   looking to sell Eur 1-2 bln of  3 and 6 month T-bills , results around 0940GMT

Belgium’s to sell  Eur 2-3 bln  of 5,10 and 15 yr  bonds, results around 1010 GMT

France’s  to sell Eur 7.2-8.4 bln of  3,6 and 12 month T bills,  results around 1255GMT

Haven’t heard exactly who’s selling this but one friend in the Far East is  telling me The Bk Of Korea has been actively selling in USD/KRW and suggests he could be behind the slip in the EUR/USD  as he rebalances his reserves.

Euro’s slipped to the low 1.2760′s  from the low 1.2790′s when i sat down. Real money names are reportedly sitting on the bids from 1.2750 and more bids are seen down towards 1.2720/30

Signs of some stabilization creeping into the Swiss economy. Analysts were expected  a reading of -15.

The new French President wants to push Angela Merkel on Wednesday at the informal European summit dinner to withdraw her Eurobond veto, which he sees as a potential remedy to the debt crisis and would relieve borrowing cost stresses on weaker countries in the Eurozone.

More… (from the Irish Times)

EUR/USD:  Real money bids 1.2740/50, stops below ahead of more bids 1.2720/30 and 1.2700/10 (sell stops below). Offers 1.2810/30, talk of buy stops through 1.2835 ahead of further offers 1.2860/70

GBP/USD:  Offers 1.5830/40, tech res 1.5890/10. Bids 1.5790/00, 1.5730/40, suggested sell stops below

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8085/00, 0.8135/40, Bids 0.8070/75, 0.8050/55 from funds

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.00/10 (79.10, 61.8% of 76.00-84.15), (79.00 rumoured barrier). Sell stops down through 78.95 and 78.80. Offers start from79.20 and run up to 79.50 (exporters)

EUR/JPY: Offers 101.40/50 and 101.90/00, but stops just above. Bids 101.00/10, likely stops just below.

EUR/CHF:  Bids 1.2000/10, offers 1.2015/25 and 1.2040/50

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9400/10, Bids 0.9370/80

AUD/USD:  Sell stops through 0.9820. Bids 0.9800/10, sell stops through 0.9790. Offers 0.9870/80 larger up at 0.9890/00 with buy stops on a break above.

– Japan Mar Coincident CI Revised +1.5 Pt Vs Prelim +1.3Pt
– Japan Mar Leading Index Revised +0.3 Pt Vs Prelim +0.6Pt

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s coincident composite index (CI), which
reflects current business conditions, rose a revised 1.5 points to 96.7
in March (preliminary +1.3 points at 96.5), Cabinet Office data showed
on Monday.

As seen in preliminary data, the coincident CI posted the second
consecutive monthly gain after a 1.0 point gain in February.

In March, nine out of the 11 sub-indexes comprising the coincident
index rose, led by retail sales.

The composite index was set at 100 in the 2005 base year.

In the preliminary report released earlier this month, the Cabinet
Office maintained its overall assessment, saying the composite index
“shows that the economy is improving.”

Other details from the latest data follow:

The leading composite index, which measures the state of the
economy three months ahead: Mar revised 96.4 (+0.3 point m/m) vs.
preliminary 96.6 (+0.6 point), posting a fourth straight monthly rise.

The lagging CI, which reflects economic conditions three months
ago: Mar revised 86.7 (+0.4 point m/m) vs. preliminary 86.7 (+0.5
point), marking the second consecutive monthly rise.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

JAPAN DATA: The Cabinet Office releases revised Composite Indexes of
key business indicators for March:
– Japan Mar Coincident CI Revised +1.5 Pt Vs Prelim +1.3Pt
– Japan Mar Leading Index Revised +0.3 Pt Vs Prelim +0.6Pt

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut..

EUR/USD: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2800, 1.2900 and 1.3000

USD/JPY: 79.50, 79.75 and 80.00

GBP/USD: 1.5785, 1.5880 and 1.5900

EUR/GBP:  0.8000

According to a leading European fund manager.

Fidelity Worldwide Investment Equity CIO Dominic Rossi said..

“I don’t think it will be long before Spain will need to seek official assistance in the recapitalisation of its banks from both the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.” he said.

Rossi is in charge of £155 bln of assets at Fidelity and believes that UK banks are in better shape to cope than most , having already taken steps to boost their capital and reduce exposure to sovereign debt.

More… 

Support now seems to be moving towards two parties in the run up to the June 17 elections in Greece, and it’s a close run race at the moment with one poll putting Syriza on around 28% and the ND on 24%.

Syriza’s leader Tsipras travels to Paris and Berlin today and insists his party’s opposition to the bail out deal wouldn’t result in an exit from the Euro

More…

Roger Bootle’s take  on the Euro’s future in today’s Telegraph

British PM Cameron calls for world leaders to draw up  “strong contingency plans” in the event of a Euro break-up and  urges the ECB  to follow the BOE in printing new money to boost economies.

Good morning

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