Worse than forecasted -0.6%m/m, -2.3% y/y. After  Q1 unrevised -0.8%m/m,-1.4% y/y

No cheer for poor old Mario Monti here…

Bad day at the office and guess this one will run and run…

Latest from the FT ……… (Google…  ‘Standard Chartered shares tumble’ )

-Jun manufacturing output -2.9% m/m; -4.3% y/y
-Jun industrial production -2.5% m/m; -4.3% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Industrial production fell sharply in June, but the
fall was less than forecast, suggesting overall GDP growth in Q2 could
be revised a little higher, figures from National Statistics showed
Tuesday.

The June figures imply an upward revision to the quarterly change
in GDP of 0.07 percentage point which could push growth up to -0.6% on
the quarter from the originally estimated 0.7% decline. Given the scale
of the decline in growth in Q2 however, it is not a large revision and
does little to alter the dismal growth picture.

Industrial production fell 2.5% during the month of June compared
with May and was down 4.3% on the same month a year earlier. Analysts
had expected to see a 3.5% monthly fall and a fall of 5.9% on the year.

Manufacturing output, which makes up the bulk of industrial
production, fell 2.9% on the month and by 4.3% on the year. This was
also a lower decline than the median for a 4.5% and 5.9% fall on the
month and year respectively.

Output was hit by the addition of two extra bank holidays in June
this year which cut the usual amount of working days. National
Statisticians said it was not possible to quantify the impact at the
present time but said it was clearly a contributing factor to the
weakness.

The wider measure of industrial production was boosted a little by
a bounce in oil and gas output which rose 3.6% on the month. This
follows months of declines in output with production still down 10.3% on
the year.

The rise in oil and gas output outweighed a fall of 4.9% on the
month in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

At the time of the preliminary GDP release on July 25, National
Statistics estimated that industrial production would fall 3.5% between
May and June with output predicted to fall 1.3% on the quarter in Q2.

Today’s release shows production falling by 0.9% on the quarter,
implying an upward revision to quarterly Q2 GDP of 0.07 percentage point
to the previously estimated fall of 0.6% on the quarter. This is not
certain, however, as other elements of GDP could also be revised which
may also impact on growth in Q2.

-London newsroom 4420 7862 7491 email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Jun manufacturing output -2.9% m/m; -4.3% y/y
-Jun industrial production -2.5% m/m; -4.3% y/y
————————————————————————
Jun industrial production fell by less than the median of -3.5% m/m
suggesting Q2 GDP could be revised up 0.07 percentage point to -0.6% on
the quarter. It’s only a small change and does little to change the
dismal growth picture. Manufacturing was down 2.9% m/m also above the
median for a larger 4.5% fall. The numbers were hit by the two extra
bank holidays in June which the seasonal adjustment process doesn’t pick
up and are subject to greater uncertainty than usual. The wider measure
of industrial production was boosted a little by a bounce in oil and gas
output which rose 3.6% on the month. This follows months of declines in
output with production still down 10.3% on the year. The rise in oil and
gas output outweighed a fall of 4.9% on the month in electricity, gas,
steam and air conditioning supply.

Not great…… but not as bad as forecasts of  -3.4% m/m

Manufacturing output in June  fell -2.9%m/m (forecasted -4.1%m/m)

ONS:  June production data points to an upward revsion of 0.07% to Q/Q change in GDP

Cable’s relatively unfazed around 1.5625

…..”Trade not a ‘fat finger’ and it will stand”

According  to a Dow Jones/EBS headline

EUR/CHF’ is currently  back down around 1.2015 after yesterday’s spike to around 1.2081

Gonna be a few unhappy bunnies out there….

ITALY DATA: June SA industrial output -1.4% m/m, WDA -8.2% y/y
- Output in all sectors except for energy goods contracted m/m
- May SA industrial output +1.0% m/m (revised from +0.8% m/m)
- See details MNI main wire for more details.

Also worse than Reuters forecast of -1.0%

On a workday adjusted basis production fell 8.2%  (-6.7% in May) from a year ago. Doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the GDP data out at 0900GMT

The CIO of the world’s biggest bond fund said yesterday the current public-spending program is unsustainable and efforts to fix the debt crisis have been futile.

To read the full CNBC story google the headline “stay away from Europe”

Looks like the market exhausted the downside for now with some small sell stops i’m now being told taken out on the move down to 1.2375 in EUR/USD earlier.  Now also hearing some buy stops sitting up in the  low/mid 1.2420′s but there’s plenty of supply being mentioned upto the barrier at 1.2450.

Equities are  edging up on the day now with STOXX up around 26 from yesterday’s close at the Italian up 200 and Spanish around 130.

EUR’s presently around 1.2414

Expectations were for -0.6%m/m and -0.8% y/y

10 consecutive fall in consumer prices but an improvement from June

It’s not that there aren’t lazy people in Britain……… but look at some of the findings ! 

EUR/USD:  Bids (light) 1.2370/80 larger down at 1.2340/50 and 1.2300/20. Offers 1.2430/50 from SNB related name) buy stops above on a break of the 1.2450 barrier.  Also talk of another barrier at 1.2500

GBP/USD:  Offers start from 1.5600 up to 1.5650 (UK names and funds),  and 1.5690/00 ahead of tech res 1.5730/35 (1.5729- 200 day MA).  Bids 1.5540/50 and 1.5500/10, sell stops below

EUR/GBP: Strong offers 0.7960/70 and tech res 0.7968 (55 day MA) stronger again up at 0.7990/00. Bids 0.7935/45 and 0.7900/10, sell stops just below.

USD/JPY:  Bids 78.78.00/10 (semi official), large sell stops through 77.90 and 77.50. Offers 78.30 up to 78.50 and again through 78.70/00 (exporters) some buy stops mixed in through 78.85, and more stops through 79.00 just ahead of tech res at 55/200 day MA's at 79.11/17

EUR/JPY: Bids 96.50/60, more below at 96.20/40 Offers 97.30/50 and 97.70/80

AUD/JPY:  Bids 82.50/60 (Japanese names) sell stops below. Offers 82.95/00 and 83.15/20

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2050

USD/CHF: Tech supp 0.9660/70 and 0.9630/35. Offers 0.9730/40 and tech res 0.9765/70

AUD/USD:   Offers 1.0580/00, larger 1.0630/50. Bids 1.0550/60,1.0530/40 and 1.0500/10, sell stops through 1.0500

EUR/AUD:  Offers 1.1770/80 and 1.1845/55, likely buy stops above. Bids 1.1700/10 and 1.1650/60

NZD/USD:  Offers from 0.8215 up to 0.8230 . Bids 0.8165/70, 0.8120/25

USD/CAD:  Bids 0.9950/60 (funds, Canadians). Offers 1.0010/20 and 1.0050/60, tech res 1.0095/10 (100/200 day MA's 1.0096/1.0107)

Unadjusted jobless rate falls to 2.7% 9Exp 2.7%) in July from 2.9% in June

Market signals are suggesting a very hard landing for the global economy. Britain has it’s own currency, which all but eliminates any risk of default, but largely due to the government’s ability to print money.

Jeremy Warner in today’s Telegraph

Nick Leeson (he should know..) talks to the UK Independent

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.2250, 1.2400, 1.2425, 1.2500

USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.50, 79.50, 80.00

USD/CHF: 0.9700, 0.9800

AUD/USD: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600 (large)1.0615, 1.0635

GBP/USD: 1.5750

EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7910, 0.7925, 0.7970

Feels like it with EUR/USD not a million miles from where it was yesterday morning when i started just under 1.2400. It doesn’t bode well for the morning but maybe some UK and German Mfg and Factory data will spark some life into this.

EUR/USD offers sit up  at 1.2430/50 which is expected to see the likes of SNB related sales ahead of a 1.2450 barrier. Bids are firm down at 1.2340/50 with some lesser bids infront around 1.2370/80. I can’t confirm any definite buy/sell stops just yet, but will update more on the orderboard a bit later.

Meanwhile  when’s the next women’s beach volleyball match? …

As widely expected, with following comments from the RBA….

• RBA states policy remain appropriate
• A$ remains high despite a drop in terms of trade, which peaked almost a year ago
• Most commodity prices have fallen
• Inflation is expected to be consistent with target over 1-2 years
• Policy is easier than most of 2011, but too early to see impact of  moves
• Overall economic growth close to trend
• Sees modest US growth but continuing weakness in Europe
• No funding difficulties for Australian banks
• Labour market shows moderate job growth

AUD’s picking up again and takes out a barrier at  1.0600 to a 4 1/2 month high of 1.0603.

Good morning all

Please post any ideas/comments you’d like to share with your fellow readers here…