Today’s option expiries Posted: 02 May 2012 02:08 AM PDT For the 1000EDT NY/1400GMT cut: EUR/USD: 1.3000, 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3250 and 1.3300 USD/JPY: 79.75, 80.00, 80.30 EUR/JPY: 106.00 GBP/USD: 1.6200, 1.6225 and 1.6300 EUR/GBP: 0.8150 AUD/USD: 1.0265, 1.0335, and 1.0400 |
Eurozone March Unemployment rate 10.9% from 10.8% in February Posted: 02 May 2012 02:01 AM PDT Small rise and exactly as expected by analysts Equals the record high of 15 yrs ago for the 17 nations, with the increase seen mostly in Italy and Spain. |
Update 2: BOE: M4 Hits Record Low; Non-Residents Sell Gilts Posted: 02 May 2012 02:00 AM PDT –Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 0848 GMT London (MNI) – Broad money growth hit a record low in March and non-residents were net sellers of Gilts, Bank of England data published Wednesday showed. The M4 broad money measure fell 0.8% on the month in March to stand down 5.0% on the year. The 5% decline was the weakest outturn since the series began in 1964 but much of the weakness was due to a decline in intra-financial sector transactions and stripping these out broad money growth was relatively firm. The Bank of England’s favoured measure of broad money growth, M4 ex-intermediate other financial corporations, which excludes economically irrelevant intra-financial sector transactions, saw 6.4% growth on a one quarter/three month annualised basis and 2.7% growth on a four quarter/12 monthly rate. The 6.4% growth rate for M4 ex-IOFCs was last higher in Q4 2007. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has highlighted the weakness of money growth as one reason for his belief above target inflation outturns will not prove sustainable. These latest data, however, highlight the problems of getting a clear picture from the diverse money measures. The BOE Bankstats data showed that, while the central bank continued with bulk purchases of Gilts in March through quantitative easing, foreign institutions were net sellers. Non-resident net purchases of Gilts declined by Stg1.73 billion following a Stg4.659 billion decline in February. Back in January, non-residents were buyers, purchasing a net Stg9.414 billion. –Data Show Subdued Housing Market Activity The BOE data also showed subdued activity in the housing market. The number of mortgage approvals rose to 49,860 in March from 49,029 in February and the net change in secured lending was Stg0.966 billion, just up from Stg0.958 billion in February. Nevertheless, mortgage approvals were well down on the levels seen in late 2011 and early 2012, hitting a local peak of 57,954 in January this year. Net consumer credit rose Stg419 million in March, up from Stg285 million in February. The data were stronger than analysts had expected, with mortgage approvals exceeding the 48,800 median forecast and consumer credit above the Stg300 million prediction. Among the raft of data issued by the BOE Wednesday, its effective interest rates release showed borrowing costs rising for new borrowers. The effective new secured loan rate rose in March by 14 basis points on the month to 3.64%. The effective rate on the stock of outstanding secured loans fell marginally, by 1 basis point to 3.32%. The rate on unsecured personal loans rose by 13 basis points to 7.49%, although the new unsecured personal loan rate fell by 26 basis points to 6.88%. Analysts have raised concerns over effective monetary tightening at a time when the BOE Monetary Policy has left policy unchanged, and these figures do show some borrowing costs rising. –London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$$BE$,MABDS$] |
Update: BOE: M4 Hits Record Low; Non-Residents Sell Gilts Posted: 02 May 2012 01:50 AM PDT London (MNI) – Broad money growth hit a record low in March and non-residents were net sellers of Gilts, Bank of England data published Wednesday showed. The M4 broad money measure fell 0.8% on the month in March to stand down 5.0% on the year. The 5% decline was the weakest outturn since the series began in 1964 but much of the weakness was due to a decline in intra-financial sector transactions and stripping these out broad money growth was relatively firm. The Bank of England’s favoured measure of broad money growth, M4 ex-intermediate other financial corporations, which excludes economically irrelevant intra-financial sector transactions, saw 6.4% growth on a one quarter/three month annualised basis and 2.7% growth on a four quarter/12 monthly rate. The 6.4% growth rate for M4 ex-IOFCs was last higher in Q4 2007. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has highlighted the weakness of money growth as one reason for his belief above target inflation outturns will not prove sustainable. These latest data, however, highlight the problems of getting a clear picture from the diverse money measures. The BOE Bankstats data showed that, while the central bank continued with bulk purchases of Gilts in March through quantitative easing, foreign institutions were net sellers. Non-resident net purchases of Gilts declined by Stg1.73 billion following a Stg4.659 billion decline in February. Back in January, non-residents were buyers, purchasing a net Stg9.414 billion. –Data Show Subdued Housing Market Activity The BOE data also showed subdued activity in the housing market. The number of mortgage approvals rose to 49,860 in March from 49,029 in February and the net change in secured lending was Stg0.966 billion, just up from Stg0.958 billion in February. Nevertheless, mortgage approvals were well down on the levels seen in late 2011 and early 2012, hitting a local peak of 57,954 in January this year. Net consumer credit rose Stg419 million in March, up from Stg285 million in February. The data were stronger than analysts had expected, with mortgage approvals exceeding the 48,800 median forecast and consumer credit above the Stg300 million prediction. –London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$$BE$,MABDS$] |
So what we got from here…. Posted: 02 May 2012 01:44 AM PDT Some talk of more stops through 1.3160. I’m a little surprised by the positioning, but what do I know….. We’re at 1.3168, BIS having at least slowed, if not turned, the decline. |
CORRECT:Germany’s Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises In April Posted: 02 May 2012 01:40 AM PDT SA Unemployment: +19k (pan-German), +19k (West), flat (East) – corrects fourth paragraph to show unadjusted jobless level at 20-year low, not 20-month low as initially reported – FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ranks of the unemployed in Germany unexpectedly rose in April, while the number of payroll jobs contracted modestly, the Federal Labour Office reported on Wednesday. The number of jobseekers rose by 19,000, more than reversing March’s decline, bringing the total number of unemployed to 2.875 million. Even the most pessimistic analyst polled by MNI had projected a rise of only 10,000 persons. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 6.8% after March’s figure was revised up 0.1 percentage point. Without taking into account seasonal trends, the jobless rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 7.0%, reflecting a 20-year low of 2.963 million persons looking for work in April compared to 3.028 million in March. Job vacancies fell by 1,000 in April after no change in March. Payroll jobs, for data for which lag by one month maintained its upward trend, rising by 29,000 after +43,000 in February. The April PMI polls show a slight reduction in private sector employment for the first time since early 2010, as both manufacturers and service providers adjusted to lower workloads. As weakening demand from southern Europe offsets robust sales to Asia and the U.S., further reductions in staff are possible, which could well create a drag on Germany’s consumption-fueled recovery. Still, recent surveys suggest the German labour market should generally continue to develop positively and remain the envy of a number of Eurozone partners. Manufacturers and service providers polled by the Ifo institute in April indicated that they still planned to expand staff, albeit more cautiously than in March. While hiring expectations in retail and construction eroded last month, they remained above average, according to a European Commission survey, The Labour Office’s IAB research arm foresees unemployment to decline to 2.84 million on average this year. With immigration and increased labour force participation expected to boost the labour force by 40,000 persons, the institute sees average employment reaching a post-unification high of 41.55 million. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142, email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$] |
BOE: M4 Hits Record Low; Non-Residents Sell Gilts Posted: 02 May 2012 01:40 AM PDT London (MNI) – Broad money growth hit a record low in March and non-residents were net sellers of Gilts, Bank of England data published Wednesday showed. The M4 broad money measure fell 0.8% on the month in March to stand down 5.0% on the year. The 5% decline was the weakest outturn since the series began in 1964 but much of the weakness was due to a decline in intra-financial sector transactions and stripping these out broad money growth was relatively firm. The Bank of England’s favoured measure of broad money growth, M4 ex-intermediate other financial corporations, which excludes economically irrelevant intra-financial sector transactions, saw 6.4% growth on a one quarter/three month annualised basis and 2.7% growth on a four quarter/12 monthly rate. The 6.4% growth rate for M4 ex-IOFCs was last higher in Q4 2007. The BOE Bankstats data showed, while the central bank continued with bulk purchases of Gilts in March through quantitative easing, foreign institutions were net sellers. Non-resident net purchases of Gilts declined by Stg1.73 billion following a Stg4.659 billion decline in February. Back in January, non-residents were net buyers, purchasing a net Stg9.414 billion. –London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$$BE$,MABDS$] |
UK DATA: BOE: UK Mar House purchase approvals 49,860. Posted: 02 May 2012 01:40 AM PDT UK DATA: BOE: UK Mar House purchase approvals 49,860 vs 49,029 Feb –BOE: Non-Residents Sold net stg1.73bn gilts in Mar –BOE: UK Mar Net Mortgage lending change m/m +stg0.966bn –BOE: UK Mar Net CONSumer credit +stg0.419bn vs stg285bn Feb –BOE: MAR M4 Ex-IOFCS +0.5% m/m; +6.4% 1q/3m ann.; +2.7% 4q/12m –BOE: UK Mar M4 -0.8% m/m; -5.0% y/y; m4 lending -4.3% y/y –BOE: UK Mar M4 Y/Y Lowest on record; series began 1964 –BOE: UK Mar M4 EX-IOFCS 1Q/3M Last Higher Q4 2007 |
UK April construction PMI 55.8 from 56.7 in March Posted: 02 May 2012 01:31 AM PDT Weaker than previous month but above market expectations of 54.0 |
BIS seen on bid in EUR/USD Posted: 02 May 2012 01:24 AM PDT Seen on bid on EBS at 1.3166 apparently. They’re there apparently to stop me attaining my 1.3150 poll target |
Japan Average Gasoline Price Posts 4th Straight Weekly Fall Posted: 02 May 2012 01:20 AM PDT TOKYO (MNI) – The average price of regular gasoline in Japan this week fell to Y153.9 ($1.91) per liter, or $7.26 per gallon, from Y155.5 last week, marking a fourth straight weekly drop, data released by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy showed Wednesday. The average retail price this week was 0.9% above the Y152.5 per liter price seen a year earlier, with the pace of year-on-year gains decelerating further from a 1.8 % rise in the previous week. Before the recent decline, the price reached Y158.3 in the week starting on April 2, the highest in three and a half years since Y161.6 seen in the week of Oct. 14, 2008. The average price of high-octane gasoline stood at Y164.7 per liter this week, down from Y166.3 in the previous week. It hit a record high of Y196.0 on Aug. 4, 2008. The average price of diesel fuel was at Y133.7 per liter, down from Y135.0 in the previous week. That compares with the record high of Y167.4 recorded on Aug. 4, 2008. The average over-the-counter price of kerosene for heating stood at Y1,738 per 18 liters this week, down from Y1,749 last week. It posted a record high of Y2,378 on Aug. 11, 2008. The average home-delivery kerosene price was at Y1,854 per 18 liters, down from Y1,866 the previous week. It hit a record high of Y2,484 on Aug. 11, 2008. tokyo@marketnews.com ** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 ** [TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$] |
Germany’s Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises In April Posted: 02 May 2012 01:10 AM PDT SA Unemployment: +19k (pan-German), +19k (West), flat (East) – FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ranks of the unemployed in Germany unexpectedly rose in April, while the number of payroll jobs contracted modestly, the Federal Labour Office reported on Wednesday. The number of jobseekers rose by 19,000, more than reversing March’s decline, bringing the total number of unemployed to 2.875 million. Even the most pessimistic analyst polled by MNI had projected a rise of only 10,000 persons. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 6.8% after March’s figure was revised up 0.1 percentage point. Without taking into account seasonal trends, the jobless rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 7.0%, reflecting a 20-month low of 2.963 million persons looking for work in April compared to 3.028 million in March. Job vacancies fell by 1,000 in April after no change in March. Payroll jobs, for data for which lag by one month maintained its upward trend, rising by 29,000 after +43,000 in February. The April PMI polls show a slight reduction in private sector employment for the first time since early 2010, as both manufacturers and service providers adjusted to lower workloads. As weakening demand from southern Europe offsets robust sales to Asia and the U.S., further reductions in staff are possible, which could well create a drag on Germany’s consumption-fueled recovery. Still, recent surveys suggest the German labour market should generally continue to develop positively and remain the envy of a number of Eurozone partners. Manufacturers and service providers polled by the Ifo institute in April indicated that they still planned to expand staff, albeit more cautiously than in March. While hiring expectations in retail and construction eroded last month, they remained above average, according to a European Commission survey, The Labour Office’s IAB research arm foresees unemployment to decline to 2.84 million on average this year. With immigration and increased labour force participation expected to boost the labour force by 40,000 persons, the institute sees average employment reaching a post-unification high of 41.55 million. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142, email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$] |
Italy March adj jobless rate 9.8% Posted: 02 May 2012 01:07 AM PDT Much worse than median foreast of 9.4%. Just another piece of crap economic data out of the eurozone. Congratulations to Lello for picking up on my deliberate mistake. |
Greek April manufacturing PMI 40.7 Posted: 02 May 2012 01:04 AM PDT |
German April sa unemployment rises 19k to 2.875 mln Posted: 02 May 2012 01:02 AM PDT Demontrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of -10,000. Nasty shock. April sa jobless rate 6.8%, worse than Reuter’s median forecast of 6.7%. |
GERMANY DATA: April sa unemployment +19k m/m vs MNI.. Posted: 02 May 2012 01:00 AM PDT GERMANY DATA: April sa unemployment +19k m/m vs MNI fcast -10.0k: Labour Office – Germany April sa unemployment rate 6.8% vs March 6.8% – Germany April sa unemployment 2.875 mln vs March 2.856 mln – Germany April nsa unemployment rate 7.0% vs March 7.2% – Germany April nsa unemployment 2.963 mln vs March 3.028 mln – Germany April sa job vacancies -1k vs March flat – Germany March sa payroll jobs +29k vs February +43k – See MNI MainWire for details |
German manufacturing PMI 46.2 Posted: 02 May 2012 12:58 AM PDT Pretty much in line with flash estimate of 46.3. Down from 48.4 in March and lowest read since July 2009. Stops tripped through 1.3180 and 1.3170. We’ve been as low as 1.3166, presently at 1.3170. |
French April final manufacturing PMI revised down Posted: 02 May 2012 12:51 AM PDT To 46.9 from flash estimate of 47.3. |
Italy’s April manufacturing PMI 43.8 Posted: 02 May 2012 12:45 AM PDT Demonstrably lower than Reuter’s median forecast of 47.0 and demonstrably lower than March read of 47.9. EUR/USD slumps on the news. Stops tripped through 1.3200 and been as low as 1.3182 so far. |
China’s not happy….demands US apology and punishment of Embassy officials responsible for taking in dissident Posted: 02 May 2012 12:44 AM PDT - Expresses strong dissatisfaction over US Embassy’s taking in of dissident Chen and wants assurance that there will be no reoccurrence
- China accuses US of interferring with Chinese domestic politics, saying US should reflect on its policies and take action to preserve/protect US-chinese relations.
Chen has since left the US embassy and been sent to a Beijing medical facility for treatment before being reunited with his family |
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