Unchanged from previous forecast.

I’m not going to list the whole bloody lot but here’s the interesting ones (in my everso humble opinion)

Germany 2012 GDP growth revised up, to +0.7% from previous +0.6%

French 2012 GDP growth revised up, to +0.5% from previous +0.4%

Spain 2012 GDP growth revised down sharply to -1.8% from previous -1.0% (ouch!!)

BERLIN (MNI) – Greece won’t get any further financial aid from its
Eurozone peers if it does not adhere to the agreed fiscal consolidation
and reform measures, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said
Friday in a government declaration in the German parliament.

“If Greece leaves the authoritative reform path then a pay-out of
further aid tranches won’t be possible anymore,” Westerwelle stressed.

“We want to keep the Eurozone together,” the minister vowed. “The
future of Greece in the Eurozone is now in the hands of Greece,” he
declared.

Westerwelle reaffirmed the German government’s mantra that growth
in the Eurozone must not be kick-started through higher borrowing. It
can only be achieved by undertaking structural reforms. “One cannot buy
growth through debt,” he asserted.

“We want to get out of debt policies…in Europe, because printing
money cannot be a solution. It leads to depreciation of money, it leads
to inflation,” Westerwelle said.

The minister reaffirmed that the German government aims to work
closely with the new French president Francois Hollande and his
government but will not give in to Holland’s demand to renegotiate the
EU fiscal compact.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$F$$$,M$Y$$$,M$G$$$]

LONDON (MNI) – UK input prices plunged in April, taking the rate of
yearly input price inflation below that of output price inflation for
the first time since October 2009.

Input prices fell 1.5% on the month in April to stand up 1.2% on
the year, having been up 5.6% on the year in March. This vertiginous
fall in the yearly rate of input price inflation took the rate below the
3.3% yearly rise in ouput prices in April.

The 1.2% yearly rise in input prices was also the lowest since
October 2009. National Statistics said the 1.5% monthly fall was mainly
due to the declines in crude oil prices, imported metals and other
imported parts and equipment.

Output prices rose 0.7% and were up 3.3% on the year, down from
3.7% on the year in March, with the yearly rate the lowest since
December 2009.

Core output prices were up 2.3% on the year in April compared with
up 2.5% in March.

The fall in input prices was larger than analysts had anticipated
but the decline in output prices was less.

–London bureau: 0044 20 7634 1624; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

– See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s gross domestic product in January-March is
expected to have posted the first rise in two quarters, up a real 0.9%
q/q, or an annualized +3.5%, backed by consumption and fiscal spending,
according to the median forecast by 28 economists surveyed by MNI.

The latest median forecast is slightly higher than the 0.8% rise
q/q (annualized +3.4%) projected in the initial MNI survey of 11
economists released on May 2.

The Cabinet Office will release the Q1 GDP data at 0850 JST on
Thursday, May 17 (2350 GMT Wednesday, May 16).

The economy contracted 0.2% on quarter, or an annualized 0.7%, in
October-December after expanding 1.7% q/q (+7.1% annualized) in
July-September and slumping 0.3% q/q (-1.2% annualized) in April-June
2011.

In Q1 this year, personal consumption, the largest component of
GDP, is expected to have risen 0.7% q/q, thanks to leap-year effects and
government subsidies for buying low-emission vehicles, after +0.4% in Q4
and +1.0% in Q3.

Public demand is also expected to have increased 0.4% q/q on demand
for rebuilding the northeastern regions hit by the March 2011 earthquake
disaster, which would be the first rise in three quarters after falling
0.1% in Q4 and being flat in Q3.

Public outlays for reconstruction of the disastered areas have
totaled around Y19 trillion, equivalent to about 4% of Japan’s nominal
GDP, the Bank of Japan estimates.

Meanwhile, business investment, another major component of private
demand, appeared to have fallen 0.6% q/q, the first fall in three
quarters, after a robust 4.8% gain in Q4 and a modest 0.3% rise in Q3.

If the forecast for the Q1 GDP is met, GDP for fiscal 2011 will
show a slight contraction of -0.1% to -0.2% from the previous year, in
line with the government’s official forecast for -0.1%.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$,MT$$$$]

–UK Q1 Construction Output -4.8% q/a; -3.7% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – First quarter construction output fell more sharply
than previously assumed and will knock first quarter growth, data issued
by National Statistics Friday showed.

Construction output fell 4.8% on the quarter in Q1, compared with
the 3.0% fall factored into the initial estimate of Q1 GDP. National
Statistics said this means it will knock an additional 0.1 percentage
point off Q1 GDP.

If everything else stayed the same, this would mean Q1 GDP fell
0.3% on the quarter, with the initial 0.2% quarterly already showing the
UK economy going back into technical recession.

Construction will lower quarterly Q1 GDP on this estimate by just
over 0.3 percentage points, having lowered it by some 0.2 percentage
points in the initial estimate, NS said.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee was not on the
pre-release list for the construction data and so did not see them at
their May policy meeting, at which they left policy unchanged, National
Statistics said.

–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Apr Producer Output Prices +0.7% m/m; +3.3% y/y
–UK Apr Core Output Prices +0.6% M/M; +2.3% Y/Y
–UK Apr Producer Input Prices -1.5% M/M; +1.2% Y/Y

UK DATA: Construction Output To Knock 0.1pp Off Q1 GDP
–UK Q1 Construction Output -4.8% q/q; -3.7% y/y
–NS: UK Q1 Construction Knocks 0.1pp off Q1 GDP
–NS: BOE MPC Did Not See Construction Data Before May Vote
–NS: Construction Output q/q Lowest Since Q1 2009
————————————————————————
First quarter construction output fell more sharply than previously
assumed and will knock first quarter growth, data issued by National
Statistics Friday showed. Construction output fell 4.8% on the quarter
in Q1, compared with the 3.0% fall factored into the initial estimate
of Q1 GDP. National Statistics said this means it will knock an
additional 0.1 percentage point off Q1 GDP.

Lowest since Dec 2009

Core PPI Output  +0.6% m/m. +2.3% y/y (exp +1.9% y/y)

April PPI Input  -1.5% m/m,  +1.2% y/y (expected -1.0%, +1.9%)  from +1.9% , +5.8%  in March, lowest since Oct 2009

Q1 Construction output -4.8% from Q4 2011

ONS see downward revision  knocking off 0.1% off Q1 GDP growth

– See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital
spending, are expected to have fallen on the month in March, taking a
breather after posting solid gains for the previous two months. But they
would still mark the first q/q rise in two quarters in January-March.

Some economists said companies remain cautious about expanding
domestic production capacity as the yen stays relatively strong and
global growth is slowing.

The Cabinet Office will release revisions to past figures when it
releases March machinery orders, which might prompt it to revise its
assessment. Last month it upgraded its view for the first time in eight
months, saying that “machinery orders are rising gradually.”

Meanwhile, producer prices as seen in the domestic corporate goods
price index (CGPI) will post the first year-on-year drop in April since
-0.1% in September 2010 as slower global demand has led to softer prices
of crude oil and steel among other commodities.

The Bank of Japan’s overseas commodity index — composed of 17
items including crude oil, copper, gold, wheat and beef — fell 8.2% y/y
in April after no change in March and +2.2% in February.

Monday, May 14, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Bank of Japan
releases April corporate goods price index (CGPI). Forecast: -0.3% on
the year, after +0.6% in both March and February.

Wednesday, May 16, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Tuesday): The Cabinet Office
releases March and Q1 machinery orders. Forecast for core orders, which
exclude volatile demand from electric utilities and for ships: -3.2% on
the month, which would be the first fall in three months after +4.8% in
February and +3.4% in January.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

We’re up at 1.2925 with Russian buying noted in recent trade.

Hopes rising Greeks might cobble together a government.

light-ish buy stops seen through 1.2935.

• Government with conservatives, socialists, moderates eyed
• Government with two year mandate until 2014 being proposed

In EUR/USD

Sit presently at 1.2917.

Talk of trailing buy stops through 1.2935 before sell orders clustered 1.2940/50.  Further buy stops then through 1.2950.

On the downside, we have the well-documented 1.2900 barrier option interest. Talk of stops through 1.2900 and 1.2895, take your pick.

Eight times out of ten (approx) you’d likely see barrier interest pierced quickly followed by profit-taking bounce.

Personally find the lack of general momentum makes this market a particularly tricky read.  Well that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it

After +0.7% m/m and +1.9% y/y in March

Final EU- harmonized April  CPI  +1.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y (expected +1.1%, +2.0%) from 2.2  % and + 1.8% in March

That’s what I keep sayin!!  

Final HICP

April: +0.1% m/m, +2.2% y/y (+0.2% m/m, +2.2% y/y)
March: +0.4% m/m, +2.3% y/y

Final CPI

April: +0.2% m/m, +2.1% y/y (revised from +0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y)
March: +0.3% m/m, +2.1% y/y
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – German inflation eased to 2.2% in April in
EU-harmonized terms from 2.3% in March, the Federal Statistical Office
reported on Friday, confirming its flash estimate.

The annual CPI rate was revised up to 2.1% from the previous
estimate of 2.0%. Inflation has remained above 2% since February 2011.

While Brent crude prices fell more than 5% in April, motor fuels
still rose 1.2% on the month and were 6.3% higher on the year. Excluding
energy, core prices rose 0.1% on the month and 1.5% on the year.

Amid political uncertainty in Greece and growth concerns in the
Eurozone, oil prices slipped to three-month lows earlier this week
before partially retracing losses.

Should Brent stabilize at current levels, upward pressure from
energy on annual inflation rates should ease, despite the base effects
from the dip in oil prices in May 2011.

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were up 0.2% on the month
and 4.2% higher on the year. Household energy was flat month-over-month
while rising 5.0% year-on-year. Prices for clothing and shoes rose 0.2%
on the month for a 4.2% annual gain.

April’s PMI polls showed input prices in the private sector
continuing to rise at a robust pace, while output price inflation
remained subdued, slowing to weakest rate since the start of the year.

Suggesting that pipeline pressures could remain subdued in the near
term, an Ifo survey published last month indicated that selling-price
expectations in the retailing, wholesaling and construction sectors were
all revised downward.

Nevertheless, households’ inflation concerns increased in April,
fueled by higher petrol prices, a GfK survey showed. This has dampened
consumers’ income expectations.

“Consumers view their purchasing power as being compromised, as an
ever greater proportion of their income is spent on energy, particularly
on petrol and diesel, and is therefore not available for other
purchases,” GfK said.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has warned that domestic
inflation may exceed well exceed 2%, as Eurozone policy rates will
likely remain too low for Germany’s robust economy.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a weekend newspaper
interview that he was not worried about wages in Germany rising faster
than in other countries, since this would contribute “to reducing
imbalances in Europe.”

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]

GERMANY DATA: Apr HICP rev +0.1% m/m (+0.2%), Unrev +2.2% y/y
– Apr m/m final HICP below MNI median fcast (+0.2%)
– Apr y/y final HICP matches MNI median fcast
– Apr CPI revised +0.2% m/m (+0.1%), +2.1% y/y (+2.0%)
– Apr final CPI above MNI median fcast
– Apr m/m final CPI above MNI median fcast (+0.1%)
– Apr y/y final CPI above MNI median fcast (+2.0%)

Slightly stronger than initial reads of +0.1%, +2.0% respectively.

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The European Central Bank should be able to
ensure price stability for the Eurozone, but that may mean a period of
higher inflation in Germany, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in
an interview with German daily Bild Zeitung on Friday.

In the ECB Governing Council, “I consistently advocate price
stability for the euro area. To achieve this, it is now key that the
guardians of the currency don’t let themselves be put under the yoke of
fiscal policy,” Weidmann said. “If we stick to this principle, there is
no danger that inflation will get out of control.”

Still, in Germany inflation may exceed previous past rates and
surpass the target the ECB has set for the Eurozone average.

“The price stability target is just under 2% for the euro area. For
many years, Germany was below the average. Given strong economic
developments and low unemployment levels, we could now temporarily be
above the average,” Weidmann said.

-Frankfurt bureau tel.: +49-69-720 142 Email: frankfurt@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$EC$,M$G$$$,MGX$$$]

For the 1000NY/ 1400GMT cut…..

EUR/USD: 1.2900 (also barrier), 1.2950, 1.2975, 1.3000 and 1.3100

GBP/USD:  1.6050 ,1.6150 and 1.6200

EUR/GBP: 0.7970

AUD/USD 0.9950,1.0120, 1.0150, 1.0195 and 1.0200

AUD/JPY: 83.00

USD/JPY: 79.50, 80.00, 80.10 and 81.00

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2970/90, buy stops through 1.3000 Bids ahead of 1.2900 barrier from sovereigns and option names., sell stops down through 1.2895

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6090/00, tech support 1.6065/70 offers 1.6150/60, larger at 1.6170/80

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.7995/00, sell stops through 0.7990. Offers 0.8045/50 and 0.8060/65

USD/JPY: Bids 79.40/50 (possibly semi-official), very large stops just below. Offers 80.00/10 from exporters, models and funds

EUR/JPY: Offers 103.50/60, tech res towards 103.75/80 and 104.00/10. Bids 102.95/05, 102.50/60 (102.54 61.8% of this year's rally), heavy sell stops below.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0050/60 and 1.0025/35, larger ahead of parity. Offers from 1.0080 up to 1.0100/10, buy stops through 1.0140.

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9300/10, Bids 0.9280/85, tech sup 0.9255/60

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10 (SNB), offers 1.2015/25

NZD/USD: Tech sup/bids 0.7830/35, offers 0.7865/70, tech res 0.7895/00