Rises to a new Eurozone era high in line with Reuters expectations….

About 17.56 million out of work and the figure pushed higher by increased job lay offs in Austria, France  and Spain

-UK June Manufacturing 48.6 Versus 45.9 in May
-Headline Activity Number Comes In Above Median 46.6 Forecast

LONDON (MNI) – The UK manufacturing sector continued to contract in
June but at a much slower pace than in May, according to the
Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply survey.

The headline June CIPS manufacturing index, from Reuters, rose to
48.6 from 45.9 in May. The 4.3-point monthly fall in May was the second
steepest in the survey’s history. Analysts had expected some bounce back
in June, with the median forecast for a 46.6 outturn.

The June survey will provide some comfort to the Bank of England,
as it offers further evidence of inflation pressure easing rapidly.
June manufacturing input prices fell at their fastest pace since May
2009.

New orders rebounded in June, rising 47.0 from May’s 42.0, but were
nevertheless still well below the 50 breakeven level.

The data support the view manufacturing will make a negative
contribution to second quarter GDP.

-London newsroom: +44 207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$]

Jobless Producer Prices Retail Sales
Rate (%) – May – – May -
– May – %mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 11.1 -0.3 2.4 0.3 -1.4
High forecast 11.1 -0.1 2.5 0.6 -0.4
Low forecast 11.0 -0.5 2.3 -1.9 -2.9
Previous period 11.0 0.0 2.6 -1.0 2.5
-
Number of responses 13 7 7 10 6
-
4Cast 11.1 -0.3 2.5 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. n/a n/a n/a 0.6 -0.4
Berenberg Bank 11.0 n/a 2.4 0.5 n/a
BNP Paribas 11.0 n/a n/a 0.3 n/a
Capital Economics 11.1 -0.5 2.3 0.0 -1.1
Citi 11.1 -0.4 2.4 0.3 n/a
DZ Bank n/a -0.1 n/a n/a n/a
Danske 11.1 n/a n/a 0.0 n/a
ING 11.1 -0.3 2.5 0.4 -2.2
Lloyds Bank 11.1 n/a n/a -0.8 -1.7
LBBW 11.1 -0.4 n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 11.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Standard Chartered 11.1 -0.3 2.5 0.4 -0.5
UBS 11.0 n/a n/a -1.9 -2.9
Westpac 11.1 n/a 2.3 n/a n/a

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 29.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Industrial Industrial
New Orders Production
– May – – May -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 0.2 -5.6 -0.1 -1.9
High forecast 1.9 -0.3 1.4 0.0
Low forecast -1.0 -6.4 -0.5 -2.2
Previous period -1.9 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7
-
Number of responses 17 9 16 7
-
4Cast -0.5 -0.3 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 0.5 -5.6 -0.5 -2.2
Berenberg Bank 1.4 n/a 1.4 n/a
BNP Paribas 0.2 n/a 0.5 n/a
Capital Economics 0.5 -5.6 -0.2 -1.9
Citi -0.3 -6.4 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 0.5 -5.5 -0.5 -1.8
DZ Bank 0.5 n/a 0.5 n/a
Danske 0.0 n/a 0.3 n/a
ING 1.0 -5.2 1.0 0.0
Lloyds Bank 0.8 n/a 1.0 n/a
LBBW -1.0 n/a 0.0 n/a
Natixis -0.3 -6.4 -0.3 -2.0
Nomura -0.2 n/a -0.3 n/a
Soc. Generale 0.0 -6.1 -0.1 -1.8
Standard Chartered n/a n/a -0.4 -2.1
UBS 1.9 -4.3 0.6 n/a
Westpac -1.0 n/a -0.5 n/a

—————————————————————-
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 29.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Trade Balance
– May -
E Bln (SA)

Median Forecast -5.5
High forecast -5.4
Low forecast -6.0
Previous period -5.8
-
Number of responses 5
-
Barclays Cap. -5.5
BNP Paribas -5.4
ING -6.0
Natixis -5.4
Soc. Generale -5.6

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 29.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Yer reckon….

• Estimates growth at 0.4% in 2012, 1.0% in 2013
• 6-10 bln euros in new deficit-cutting measures needed for 2012 due to slowing growth. Deficit target is 4.5% of GDP in 2012
• 33 bln euros deficit cutting measures needed in 2013 to hit 3% deficit target

UK DATA: UK June Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 48.6: Reuters

BERLIN (MNI) – The German government plans to tie fiscal aid for
banks from Europe’s future permanent bailout fund ESM to the
introduction of a financial transactions tax in the concerned countries,
the German weekly Focus reported Monday, without citing sources.

According to the magazine, only banks in Eurozone member states
that apply a financial transactions tax and transfer its receipts to the
ESM would be eligible for direct aid to their banks.

Thereby, Berlin hopes to minimize risks for German taxpayers, Focus
wrote.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,MT$$$$]

Big improvement and up from Reuters poll of 46.5, but still under 50.

New orders sharply up at 47.0 in June from 42.0 in May

ITALY DATA: Italy May provisional unemployment rate 10.1% vs 10.2% in
April.

Down from 10.2% in  April and better than Reuters’ median forecast of 10.4%. 

Youth unemployment meanwhile climbed to 36.2%, the highest level since 1992

Down from 43.1 in May as new orders, output fall sharply

EUROPEAN DATA: European June manufacturing PMI 45.1 vs flash 44.8, May
45.1 : Reuters

Down from May’s 45.2, but above flash  of 44.7

Lowest  reading for 3 years, overseas orders fell at 2nd fastest rate since May 2009, with  a marked slowdown in demand from China

Eurozone June Final Mfg PMI 45.1 (unchanged from May but up from flash reading of 44.8), June Output index 44.7 from 44.6 in May (up from flash reading of 44.4)

Italian 10 year govt bond yield down at 5.70%, off 12 bps on day.

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield down at 6.22%, off 11 bps on day.

EUR/USD sits at 1.2630, up 5 pips from what greeted me first thing. It’s all go……

From final May reading of 44.7,  June flash estimate was  45.3, but Q2 still looks likely to  be sector’s worst for 3 years

FRANCE DATA: France June manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs flash 45.3, May
44.7: Reuters

ITALY DATA: Italy June manufacturing PMI 44.6 vs 44.8 in May: Reuters

Well, that’s good

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Greek government’s first priority must be to
get its reform program back on track, European Central Bank Executive
Board member Joerg Asmussen said in Monday, warning that a delay in
meeting targets could be risky and would lead to more funding needs.

“So let me make it clear upfront: the programme is the best option
for Greece,” Asmussen said in a speech given in Athens.

“The difficulties that Greece is currently experiencing do not stem
from the programme,” Asmussen continued. They are “deep rooted” and
“stem from many years of unsustainable economic policies and a
reluctance to implement the necessary reforms.”

“With or without the programme, any Greek government would have to
pursue a similar adjustment to bring the economy back on track and
restore the confidence of financial markets,” the central banker said.

Asmussen stressed that the government, instead of wasting time
trying to avoid or weaken the needed reforms, should take a “much
stronger program ownership” and maximize the program’s effectiveness.

He also warned of risks in delaying reforms, noting that it would
raise the debt-to-GDP ratio above the sustainability target of 120% in
2020. “And it is not free: it requires additional funding from the
creditor countries, because the country still runs a primary deficit,”
Asmussen said.

Shifting his focus to the Eurozone as a whole, Asmussen said that
restoring confidence in the monetary union posed a greater challenge
than the Greek crisis. He called on all countries receiving assistance
to implement their programs.

“For Ireland and Portugal, this means maintaining their strong
track record of implementation,” Asmussen said. “For Spain, it means a
convincing recapitalisation plan that removes all doubts about the
solvency of its banks. The first financial review can provide a basis
for this. For Cyprus, it means finally addressing its macroeconomic and
financial sector vulnerabilities.”

However, those countries aren’t the only ones with work to do,
Asmussen continued: “For other member states – including France and
Germany – it means learning the lessons of the crisis so far and getting
ahead of the curve on fiscal and structural reforms.”

Asmussen also warned against believing in “once and for all
solutions,” and he said that those calling for a banking license for the
European Stability Mechanism or a European transfer system were
“contenting themselves with a superficial analysis.”

“There is no silver bullet,” he said. “The crisis can only be
resolved through determined steps on a number of fronts that address its
root causes.”

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$Y$$$,M$$EC$]