-June PSNB-X Stg14.447bn vs Stg13.919bn in June 2011

LONDON (MNI) – June public sector borrowing in the UK was up
compared with last year, and excluding the positive impact from the
Royal Mail pension transfer, the deterioration was far worse, figures
from National Statistics showed on Friday.

Public Sector Net Borrowing excluding financial sector
interventions stood at Stg14.447 billion in June, up from Stg13.919
billion in the same month a year earlier, compared with the median of
Stg13.2 billion.

For the year to date borrowing stood at Stg14.9 billion compared
with Stg38.4 billion in the same period in 2011/12. But the figures are
flattered by the one-off transfer of the Royal Mail pension plan in
April. Excluding this effect then for the year-to-date PSNB-X is
actually up 11.7% on the year.

Receipts growth picked up in June and were up 3.6% on the year on
an accrued basis. Still, growth of 2.5% for the financial year-to-date
remains below the Budget forecast of 4% for 2012/13.

Current spending, though, is running below forecast with spending
up 2.1% for the year-to-date, below the full year Budget forecast of
3.1%.

It is, though, early in the financial year and it is too early to
assume this pattern will last as the monthly data are erratic. National
Statistics said timing of local government grants was one factor that
may have pushed up borrowing in the first three months of the fiscal
year.

For 2011/2012, PSNB-X was revised down by Stg1.8 billion to
Stg125.711 billion, mainly due to methodological changes in how the
figures are calculated.

–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: June PSNB-X Stg14.447bn vs Stg13.919bn in June 2011
————————————————————————
June public sector borrowing in the UK was up compared with last year,
and excluding the positive impact from the Royal Mail pension
transfer, the deterioration was far worse. PSNB-X stood at Stg14.447
billion in June, up from Stg13.919 billion in the same month a year
earlier, compared with the median of Stg13.2 billion. For the year to
date borrowing stood at Stg14.9 billion compared with Stg38.4 billion in
the same period in 2011/12. But the figures are flattered by the one-off
transfer of the Royal Mail pension plan in April. Excluding this effect
then for the year-to-date PSNB-X is actually up 11.7% on the year.
Receipts growth is still running below the Budget forecast, although
spending data showed expenditure below forecast.

Above expectations of £11 bln and June 2011′s reading of £11.073 bln

June PSNCR £2.996bln, vs poll of £6,1 bln and June 2011′s reading  of £10.689 bln

I’m declaring a half-day holiday.

Well that’s how I see it

Infratest dimap poll commissioned by ARD public television.

52% of Germans are against Spain receiving aid from euro region financial backdrops, while 38% approved planned rescue.

1,000 people interviewed between July 17 and July 18.

Only question I have; is 1000 people a big enough representative sample?

Some of those protestors looked quite…………happy

The latest poll 1.2170-1.2370 was a tricky one.  Here we sit at 1.2265 going nowhere fast.

We mentioned earlier sell stops in EUR/USD through 1.2230. Getting reports of some through 1.2240 as well.  Go figure.

Summertime and the livin is easy, fish are jumpin and the cotton is high…..

Bounces are being limited to the 96.50 area now and  it looks like the market wants to push through 96.00 which is rumoured to hold a barrier.

Sell stops are lined up on a break of the level, ahead of technical support and bids down around the  95.60 level which was the June 1st lows. There’s talk of further stops now through 95.50.

Thanks to Peter K for the heads up.

Two articles from AEP in one day.  My cup runneth over

If you don’t like Ambrose, guess you’ll be grinding ya teeth right about now

See, that wasn’t so painful was it

EUR/USD touch firmer at 1.2270 in slow trade.

EUR/USD:1.2150, (unconfirmed 1.2200)

AUD/USD: 1.0450, 1.0500

USD/JPY: 78.25, 78.00 and 77.50

EUR/JPY: 96.00

GERMANY DATA: June PPI -0.4% m/m, +1.6% y/y; May +2.1% y/y; April +2.4%
– Germany June PPI below MNI median fcasts (-0.3%/+1.8%)
– Germany June PPI ex-energy -0.1% m/m, +1.0% y/y; May +1.3% y/y
– Germany June PPI ex-petroleum products -0.3% m/m, +1.5% y/y
– Germany June PPI energy -1.4% m/m, +2.8% y/y; May -0.9%/+4.2%
– Germany June PPI cap goods unch m/m, +1.1% y/y; May +1.2% y/y
– Germany June PPI cons goods +0.1% m/m, +2.1% y/y; May +2.3% y/y
– Germany June PPI basic goods -0.3% m/m, +0.1% y/y; May +0.6% y/y
– See MNI MainWire for details

When I got reports that China had been seen selling EUR/USD circa 1.2300 yesterday, I just knew I’d wake to a lower EUR/USD this morning.

And here we are, presently at 1.2250.

That said, we seem firmly ensconsed in a well-trodden 1.2150-1.2350 range.  Not sure what it will take to breakout.  Looks like we’ll need something pretty darn  significant.

Closer to home, sell stops seen through 1.2230.  Reports of topside stops a little more mixed up. Suffice it so say seems they’re gathered in the 1.2325/35 area.

Weaker than the median forecasts I had of -0.2%, +1.8% respectively.

Is the forex market gonna care about this data?   Not a jot I suspect

Oh dear  :(

EUR/USD:  Offers 1.2280/00 (talk semi-official, Dutch names, ACB), (1.2300 also large opt expiry). More offers 1.2315/25,. Suggested buy stops above ahead of stronger offers up at 1.2340/50, buy stops above and through 1.2365. Bids 1.2230/40 sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2200/10, sell stops below ahead of bids 1.2150/60 (1.2150 barrier)

GBP/USD:  Bids 1.5650/60 1.5580/00, offers 1.5730/50 (1.5750= 200 day MA), stronger up from 1.5775 up to 1.5800 (1.5790= 100 day MA)

EUR/GBP:   Bids 0.7795/05.  Likely sell stops below through 0.7790. Offers 0.7835/40 and 0.7865/70

USD/JPY: Bids 78.40/50 sell stops below, more bids 78.25/35 (78.25 barrier) and 78.00/10 (78.00 barrier) sell stops below. Offers 78.90/79.10(200 day MA 79.07). Buy stops through 79.25 ahead of tech res/offers 79.40/50 (79.43= 55 day MA)

EUR/JPY:   Offers 96.50/60 and 96.90/00. Tech res 97.30/40, bids 96.00/20 likely sell stops below 96.00 ahead of larger bids down at 95.55/65 with more sell stops through 95.50

AUD/JPY:  Bids 81.25/35(81.26=200 day MA) and 81.00/10, likely sell stops below through 80.90. Offers 81.90/00, and 82.05/15 (82.14=100 day MA) likely buy stops just above and through 82.40

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9800/20, bids 0.9750/60 and from 0.9730 down to 0.9700

AUD/USD: Offers 1.0440/50 (1.0450 barrier), buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.0470/75 and 1.0500 (possible barrier). Bids 1.0390/00 sell stops through 1.0390 and stronger bids down at 1.0350/70, sell stops through 1.0340 ahead of more bids 1.0300/10

EUR/AUD: tech support 1.1740/45 (recent low) and 1.1700, offers 1.1790/00 and 1.1850/60

NZD/USD: tech res 0.8070/75, Bids 0.8000/10, and 0.7980/90, sell stops through 0.79800 ahead of tech supp 0.7960/65 (200 day MA 0.7962) stronger supp 0.7915/25

Financial bookies see FTSE, DAX and CAC 40 all opening down around -0.2%.

Euro zone finance ministers’ conference call starts 10:00 GMT

‘As the euro zone struggles to pull together, Britain is trying to pull away’