Inflation slowing less than expected.

EUR remains comotose around 1.3242

March sa M3: +3.2% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.8% y/y
SA private loans: +0.6% y/y

MNI survey median:
March sa M3: +2.8% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.7% y/y
SA private loans: +2.6% y/y

MNI survey range:
March sa M3: +2.4% to +3.2% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.3% to +2.8% y/y

February sa M3: +2.8% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.3% y/y
SA private loans: +0.8% y/y
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Contrary to expectations, private sector lending
in the Eurozone slowed further in March to its weakest pace since
mid-2010, while M3 broad money supply surprised to the upside, the
European Central Bank reported on Monday.

Loans to the private sector were 0.6% higher on the year after
slowing to +0.8% in February, bringing the three-month moving average to
+0.9%. Adjusting for sales and securitisation, the annual rise was
steady at 1.2%.

Household credit picked up speed to +1.8%, 0.4 percentage point
higher than February’s rate. Credit to governments jumped 7.3% on the
year after +5.6% in February. Credit extended to the private sector
accelerated slightly to +0.5% from February’s +0.4%.

Loans to households slowed to +0.6% — half the annual growth in
February. Lending for house purchases – the most important component of
consumer borrowing – slowed to +1.1% in March from +1.8% previously.

Loans to non-financial corporations also decelerated, slipping to
+0.3% from February’s +0.6% rate. Monthly flows showed a drop of E5
billion after -E2 billion in February.

M3 money supply in March was 3.2% higher on the year, its strongest
rise since June 2009. As a result, the three-year moving average
increased to +2.8%, still well below the ECB’s guideline of +4.5%.

Narrow money (M1) picked up speed to +2.7%, while short-term
deposits other than overnight deposits rose 3.3% on the year. Compared
to March 2011, marketable instruments were up 5.1%.

The ECB’s latest bank lending survey suggests that demand for
credit fell sharply in 1Q, even though banks tightened lending
conditions much less than in 4Q, thanks largely to the central bank’s
generous liquidity injections.

Weak demand rather an inability of banks to lend will likely remain
the main reason for the slow growth of private sector lending over the
next few months, the ECB argues.

“While survey data and model-based estimates indicate that loan
supply factors are likely to continue to exert an adverse impact on loan
growth in the next few months, weak loan demand will probably remain the
main determinant,” the ECB said in its latest Monthly Bulletin.

“Leading indicators suggest that demand for loans on the part of
both households and non-financial corporations is likely to remain weak,
at least during the first half of 2012, in line with subdued economic
activity.”

Although credit constraints appear to be easing overall, another
ECB survey showed that access to credit for small and medium-sized
enterprises continued to deteriorate from October to March, while
external financing needs increased.

–Frankfurt newsroom +49 69 720 142; e-mail:frankfurt@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$EC$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$,MTABLE]

The 0.8125 barrier has been consigned to the bin just now with a Reuters recorded low of 0.8124. Likely bids now seen towards 0.8090/95  and 0.8065/70 (0.8067/91= Jun 29/ 30 2010 lows), below here there’s the Nov 2008 low of 0.8000

EUR/GBP’s sitting around 0.8125

UPDATE: Cable barrier also flushed through 1.6300 with a high of 1.6304, before dipping back again under 1.6300.

M3  moving average  Jan-Mar 2.8%  from 2.3% Dec-Feb

March  annual growth loans to private sector 0.6% (expected 0.7%)

In recent trade being reliably informed.

We’re at 1.3240 in turgid trade.

Talk of buy orders clustered 1.3220/30. 

I’d hazard a guess some light stops just below there, but no confirmation on that front.

For the 1000EDT NY or 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.3150,  1,3200 (L), 1.3250, 1,3300 . ( barriers 1.3275 and 1.3300)

USD/JPY: 80.15, 80.25, 80.50, 81.00 (also barrier), 81.50 and 81.55

AUD/USD: 1.0400, 1.0450

NZD/USD: 0.8135, 0.8200

GBP/USD:  1.6200, 1.6250 (barrier 1.6300)

Not a lot to get your teeth into this morning with the AUD sitting around 1.0440/50. Tomorrow’s RBA decision is expected to see a cut of 25bps, with the more optimistic looking for a 50 bps cut.

Can’t see it myself with the market in the current lacklustre mode unless we get a decent spike up through 1.0500, but the RBA also won’t want to look like they’re panicking either.

Importer offers  sit up at 1.0465/70 with tech resistance likely to be strong around the 55day MA at 1.5503. Bids wait down at 1.0430/40 and 1.0400/10

In recent trade.  We’re slightly lower at 1.3245 in slow trade.

They also sold cable as well. Cable down at 1.6283 from session high 1.6296, just shy of touted 1.6300 barrier interest.

Back with EUR/USD,  talk of large 1.3250 expiry today.  If you believe in the magnetic effect of these large expiries (I don’t), then we’re doomed, a morning of turgid price action awaiting us.

Betta than expected, Reuter’s median forecasts -0.4%, -0.5% respectively.

What’s that expression….thank heavens for small mercies

EUR/USD touch firmer at 1.3265.

Barrier option interest looms at 1.3275.

Morning all,

EUR/USD: option barriers , 1.3275 and 1.3300 with large offers from swiss and option  names ahead of each.,  Strong bids starting from 1.3200 down to 1.3180 with sell stops below. large expiry today at 1.3250

GBP/USD: Offers 1.6290/00 ahead of option barrier 1.6300, talk of bids 1.6220/30 and 1.6200/10

EUR/GBP: option barrier 0.8125, bids ahead of it at 0.8130/35. Offers 0.8150/55 and 0.8165/70

USD/JPY:  Bids 80.00/10, large sell stops below and through 79.90.  offers 80.30/40

EUR/JPY:  Offers 106.40/50 and 106.90/00. Bids 105.70/80 and tech support 105.30/40

AUD/USD: Tech res 1.0465/70 (also importer offers), and 1.0500/05 (1.0503- 55 day MA) . Bids 1.0430/40 and 1.0400/10

USD/CHF: Bids 0.9050/60 (possibly 0.9050 barrier and SNB bids). inital offers 0.9070/80 and 0.9130/40

EUR/CHF: offers 1.2030/50, SNB bids 1.2000/10

‘Welfare cuts and unemployment fuelling protests and anxiety across the continent.’

Gonna be a loooong hot Summer

EUR/USD sits at….wait for it………1.3253.

HICP (flash) Jobless Producer Prices
– April – Rate (%) – March -
%yoy – March – %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 2.5 10.9 0.5 3.4
High forecast 2.7 10.9 0.8 3.7
Low forecast 2.2 6.7 0.4 3.2
Previous period 2.7 10.8 0.6 3.6
-
Number of responses 19 14 7 8
-
4Cast 2.5 10.8 0.5 3.3
ABN AMRO 2.5 10.9 N/A N/A
Barclays Cap. 2.5 10.9 0.6 3.4
Berenberg Bank 2.6 10.9 N/A N/A
BNP Paribas 2.5 10.9 N/A 3.2
Capital Economics 2.2 N/A 0.6 3.4
Citi 2.6 10.9 N/A N/A
Commerzbank 2.5 N/A N/A N/A
DZ Bank 2.5 N/A 0.4 N/A
Danske 2.6 10.9 N/A N/A
ING 2.5 6.7 N/A N/A
Lloyds Bank 2.5 10.9 0.5 3.3
LBBW 2.6 10.9 N/A N/A
Nomura 2.5 N/A N/A N/A
Soc. Generale 2.6 10.9 N/A N/A
Standard Chartered 2.7 10.9 0.4 3.3
UBS 2.5 10.8 N/A N/A
West LB 2.7 10.9 0.8 3.7
Westpac 2.5 N/A N/A 3.7
–

M3 – March Priv Sect Jobless
%yoy 3mma Lending Rate
(%yoy) (%yoy) (%)

Median Forecast 2.8 2.7 2.6 10.9
High forecast 3.2 2.8 2.8 10.9
Low forecast 2.4 2.3 0.8 6.7
Previous period 2.8 2.3 0.7 10.8
-
Number of responses 17 10 3 14
-
4Cast 2.6 2.6 2.6 10.8
ABN AMRO 2.6 N/A N/A 10.9
Barclays Cap. 2.8 N/A N/A 10.9
Berenberg Bank 2.8 N/A 0.8 10.9
BNP Paribas 3.0 2.8 2.8 10.9
Capital Economics 2.8 N/A N/A N/A
Citi 2.8 2.7 N/A 10.9
Commerzbank 2.7 N/A N/A N/A
DZ Bank 2.6 N/A N/A N/A
Danske 2.8 2.3 N/A 10.9
ING 2.7 2.7 N/A 6.7
Lloyds Bank N/A N/A N/A 10.9
LBBW 3.0 N/A N/A 10.9
Natixis 2.4 2.6 N/A N/A
Soc. Generale 3.1 2.8 N/A 10.9
Standard Chartered 2.9 2.6 N/A 10.9
UBS 3.2 2.8 N/A 10.8
West LB 2.9 2.7 N/A 10.9
–

Retail Sales
– March -
%mom %yoy

Median Forecast -0.2 -1.3
High forecast 0.3 -0.9
Low forecast -0.4 -2.1
Previous period -0.1 -2.1
-
Number of responses 12 7
-
4Cast -0.4 -1.1
ABN AMRO -0.2 N/A
Barclays Cap. 0.3 N/A
Berenberg Bank 0.3 N/A
BNP Paribas -0.2 N/A
Capital Economics -0.2 -1.3
Citi -0.2 N/A
Lloyds Bank -0.3 -1.3
Soc. Generale 0.1 -2.0
Standard Chartered -0.2 -1.3
UBS -0.1 -2.1
West LB -0.3 -0.9

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, April 27.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Jobless Jobless
Change Rate
(000s) (%)
– April -

Median Forecast -10.0 6.7
High forecast 10.0 6.7
Low forecast -15.0 6.7
Previous period -18.0 6.7
-
Number of responses 17 14
-
4Cast -8.0 6.7
ABN AMRO -2.0 6.7
Barclays Cap. -10.0 6.7
Berenberg Bank 0.0 6.7
BNP Paribas -8.0 6.7
Capital Economics 6.7 N/A
Citi 10.0 N/A
Commerzbank -10.0 N/A
DZ Bank -15.0 6.7
Lloyds Bank -10.0 6.7
LBBW N/A 6.7
Natixis -10.0 6.7
Nomura -10.0 6.7
Soc. Generale -10.0 6.7
Standard Chartered -13.0 6.7
UBS -15.0 6.7
West LB -15.0 6.7
Westpac -5.0 N/A

—————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, April 27.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

EUR/USD sits at 1.3250.

What’ll we see first 1.3150 or 1.3350?

As usual reasoning for choice welcome, but not compulsory.

First the country, then the banks.

EUR/USD sits at 1.3253, off to customary slow Monday start.

Provisional data up at 07:00 GMT, expected to show contraction -0.5% q/q, -0.6% y/y.

Real, seasonally adjusted retail sales:

March: +0.8% m/m, +2.3% y/y

MNI survey median: +1.0% m/m, +1.4% y/y
MNI survey range: +0.3% to +2.0% m/m

February: -0.9% m/m, +2.1% y/y (revised from -2.0% y/y)

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Retail sales in Germany recovered somewhat less
than generally expected in March, giving a marked decline for 1Q, the
Federal Statistical Office reported on Monday.

Following a further fall in February, turnover rebounded 0.9% in
March to give an annual rise of 2.3%. In quarterly terms, sales were
down 1.0% in 1Q, deepening 4Q’s 0.2% slide.

Food, drink and tobacco sales, for which only annual comparisons
are available, rose 2.3% in real terms. Non-food sales were up 2.5% on
the year. Between January and March, turnover increased 2.1% compared to
the same period one year ago.

April’s retail PMI fell to a two-year low of 47.4, pointing to a
slump ahead. “Sharp rises in the cost of fuel and everyday essentials
have reduced spending power at a time when the ongoing euro area crisis
is causing an added drag on consumer confidence,” explained Markit
senior economist Tim Moore.

The GfK group’s surveys also highlighted the dampening impact of
rising petrol prices on consumers’ income expectations and willingness
to spend. Nevertheless, the propensity to buy “is still” at a good
level, the GfK said.

While retailers polled by the Ifo institute in April assessed their
current conditions less positively, they were more optimistic regarding
the upcoming six months, lifting sector sentiment to a nine-month high.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720-142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$,MTABLE]

GERMANY DATA: March real sa retail sales +0.8% m/m, nsa +2.3% y/y
– Germany March m/m retail sls below MNI median fcst (+1.0%)
– Germany February m/m retail sales revised up to -0.9% (-1.6%)
– Germany 1q sa retail sales -1.0% q/q, 4q -0.2%, 3q +1.3%)
– Germany March sales 3mma (January-March:December-February) -0.4%,
February -0.4%
– See MNI MainWire for details

DAX futures up +0.4%.

EUR/USD steady at 1.3253 in early European trade. Barrier option interest touted up at 1.3275 and 1.3300.

Compares with Reuter’s median forecasts of +1.0%, +0.5% respectively