More empty shops paint grim picture of UK high streets Posted: 07 Apr 2012 02:00 AM PDT |
UK economy grew 0.1% to avoid recession, says NIESR Posted: 07 Apr 2012 01:53 AM PDT |
French hard left to back Hollande in Sarkozy duel Posted: 07 Apr 2012 01:29 AM PDT |
Election that could end the European dream Posted: 07 Apr 2012 01:19 AM PDT |
Repeat:US BLS: Unemp Rate Down to 8.2% As Labor Force Shrinks Posted: 06 Apr 2012 01:40 PM PDT –Retransmitting Story Published 9:31 ET Friday –March Payrolls Below Expectations at +120,000; Unemp Rate 8.192% By Denny Gulino WASHINGTON (MNI) – March payroll gains did not reach expectations and the sensitive jobs category of temporary help leveled off but the unemployment rate improved a tenth to 8.2% as the labor force continued its unexplained contraction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday reported 120,000 additions to payrolls after seasonal adjustment, well short of the 200,000 expected. Health care’s recent strength slowed slightly while retail employment declined by 34,000, two-thirds in department stores. Temporary help gains leveled out. Before adjustment, payrolls actually rose 811,000 including an estimated 90,000 added in new firms not captured by the monthly survey. “Retail was going down a bit,” Dori Allard, chief of the BLS Division of Labor Force Statistics, told MNI shortly before the report’s publication. “The loss there was mainly in general merchandise stores and two-thirds of that was in department stores.” Except for the decline in retail employment, a softer health employment category that still showed 26,000 more jobs, and some leveling of temporary help, the March report was characterized by the absence of change rather than unexpected shifts. In the survey of households, which determines the unemployment rate, there was a larger-than-usual improvement in the category of those working part-time for economic reasons, a decline of 447,000 to 7.7 million. “That series is a little bit bouncy,” she said, with February’s decline only 111,000 and January’s 132,000. Manufacturing continued its rebound, rising 37,000, mostly in durable goods industries much of which supports the auto industry. There was also a small pop of 3,000 in the paper industry. Since the trough there in January 2010, manufacturing has added 470,000 jobs. Financial activity jobs rose 15,000, with most of that in credit intermediation. Food services and drinking places rose 37,000 in March and has been a strong contributor since its low point in February 2010, adding 563,000 jobs. The category of professional and business services, a key business activity indicator, added another 31,000 jobs in March but they skewed toward the lower end of the pay scale, with 23,000 of them in building services. The temporary help subcategory that can be a sensitive barometer of hiring pressure backed off from its recent monthly gains, hardly changing in March. In February that category rose 55,000. The average workweek for all employees slipped a tenth of an hour to 34.5 hours and the manufacturing workweek fell even more, by 0.3 hour to 40.7 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours. The numbers for the smaller universe of production and nonsupervisory employees was unchanged at 33.8 hours. But the persistent underlying mystery of why the overall labor force keeps shrinking instead of showing new jobseeking entrants was behind the month’s improvement in the unemployment rate, Allard said. The total unemployed in the survey of households in March was 12.7 million, improved from February’s 12.8 million but not enough to be statistically significant in BLS terms. The overall labor force got 164,000 smaller in March, also not a statistically significant change but nevertheless a curiousity given the better jobs atmosphere lately. Without seasonal adjustment the labor force has risen to 154.316 million in a year from the March 2011 153.022 million Those in the category of “not in the labor force” rose 333,000 in March. That category had also bumped up when the 2010 Census figures were integrated into the numbers. This time, Allard said, “that’s going on a little bit there,” and in fact, she said, it looks like all the monthly population growth “is pretty much going into the non labor force” category, totaling 87.897 million in March after adjustment. The BLS surveys don’t gather data as to why, but analysts in and out of the BLS has pondered for months why an improving jobs picture is still not having its usual aftereffect of encouraging more job seekers, whose quest brings them into the formal labor force total. Those in the BLS category of currently wanting a job were 6.299 million in March, down from 6.378 million February, 6.319 million in January and 6.385 million in December. Another improvement discernible below the surface of the March report was that those looking for work are finding it a little bit faster, “which I thought was interesting,” she said. “The weeks unemployed is coming down a little bit,” she said. “It’s still very, very high now at 19.9 weeks but it hasn’t been that low since February 2010.” Before that, she said, the previous low was October 2009, at 18.9 weeks. “It has started to get down closer to its pre-recession. In June 2010 that duration was 25 weeks. The total of the long-term unemployed, over six months, was about unchanged at 5.3 million in March and accounted for 42.5% of all unemployed. Since April 2010, that total has fallen 1.4 million. The civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.8%, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.5%, both dropped a tenth in March. Expectations in an MNI survey centered on a gain of 200,000 overall payroll slots in March in a range of 175,000 to 250,000, with 210,000 private payroll additions and an unemployment rate that stayed at 8.3%. ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$] |
US DATA: Feb Consumer credit +$8.7b vs +$18.6b Jan… Posted: 06 Apr 2012 12:10 PM PDT US DATA: Feb Consumer credit +$8.7b vs +$18.6b Jan (prev +$17.8b). Feb revolving credit -$2.2b vs -$3.0b Jan. Feb nonrevolving +$10.9b vs +$21.6b Jan. |
Compliance Comes to Capitol Hill Posted: 06 Apr 2012 10:44 AM PDT President Obama signed into law a bill tightening insider-trading rules on members of Congress and other government officials prohibiting them from profiting on material nonpublic information they gain access to during their employment. The new legislation referred to as the STOCK Act, the Stop on Congressional Knowledge Act. The Act prohibits lawmakers, their families and staff, as well as other executive and judicial branch employees from trading stocks, commodities and futures based on private confidential information they gain access to during the scope of their employment. Although, senior government officials must annually file public disclosures reporting their investment holdings and profits/losses, the new law creates additional restrictions and prohibitions. Among others, lawmakers must report all trades valued at $1,000 or more within 30 days after they are informed of the transaction and no later than 45 days after the transaction occurred. The rule, however, does not apply to widely held investment funds and government issued bonds. Lawmakers cannot participate in initial public offerings that are not available to the general public. In addition, the bill requires lawmakers and executive branch officials to disclose terms of mortgages on their homes. And it addresses Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives, prohibiting bonus paid to executives while the companies remain under government conservatorship. Finally, the law denies federal pensions to members of Congress who are convicted of felonies involving public corruption. |
US CBO Text: Sees -$196B March Govt Deficit Vs -$188b Yr Ago Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:50 AM PDT –FY2012 YTD Federal Govt Deficit Now At -$777 Billion WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following are excerpts from the Congressional Budget Office monthly budget review published Friday: The federal government incurred a budget deficit of almost $780 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2012, CBO estimates$53 billion less than the shortfall during the same period last year. Revenues were about 4.5 percent higher and outlays slightly lower than the amounts recorded in the first six months of fiscal year 2011. The Treasury reported a deficit of $232 billion for February, about $3 billion more than CBO’s estimate based on the Daily Treasury Statements. CBO estimates that the deficit in March 2012 was $196 billion, about $8 billion more than the deficit in the same month a year earlier. Receipts in March of this year were $21 billion (or 14 percent) higher than those in March 2011, CBO estimates. More than half of the gain can be attributed to lower individual income tax refunds (which were down by $12 billion, or 20 percent). Refunds were lower in large part because some that ordinarily would have been recorded in March were reported at the end of February. Net receipts from corporate income taxes were up $7 billion in March, primarily because final payments of 2011 tax liabilities were higher than they were a year ago. (March is the month when most corporations made final tax payments based on their 2011 liability.) Amounts withheld for income and payroll taxes were also up — by $4 billion. That increase indicates continued growth in wages and salaries and would have been slightly higher except for the fact that March 2012 had one fewer business day than March 2011. A $2 billion decline in receipts from the Federal Reserveresulting from its shift to a lower-yielding portfolio offset some of those gains. Outlays were $29 billion higher this March than they were in the same month last year, mostly because about $31 billion in payments that would ordinarily be made in April were instead made in March this year (as April 1 was a Sunday). In addition, revisions to the estimated cost of several credit programs — mostly the Troubled Asset Relief Program – added $7 billion to spending this March compared with outlays last March. Absent those effects, outlays would have been $9 billion less in March 2012 than in March 2011. Compared with payments in March a year ago, outlays for Medicaid and unemployment benefits decreased by $4 billion and $3 billion, respectively, and spending for defense declined by $4 billion (after shifts in the dates of certain payments are taken into account). In addition, outlays for the Making Work Pay credit (which expired last year) fell by $3 billion. In contrast, spending for Social Security benefits increased by $4 billion. CBO estimates that the Treasury will record a deficit of $777 billion for the first six months of fiscal year 2012. Compared with the budget figures at the same point last year, revenues this year were $46 billion higher and outlays were $7 billion lower. ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$] |
US BudgetWatch: Obama Ushers Ryan Budget Into Campaign Debate Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:40 AM PDT –President Scorches Ryan Budget As ‘Radical’ Plan –House Speaker Boehner, Rep Ryan Hammer Obama on Huge Deficits By John Shaw WASHINGTON (MNI) – For a non-binding blueprint that was never expected to see the light of day after it left the House chamber, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s fiscal year 2013 budget resolution has sure generated a lot of discussion and debate this week. President Barack Obama decided to use the Ryan budget as a device to frame the fiscal debate in the coming presidential election. Speaking to an American Society of Newspaper Editors luncheon Tuesday, Obama said the House Republican budget drafted by Ryan is so far to the right that “it makes the Contract with America look like the New Deal.” The Ryan budget is “antiethical to our entire history as a land of opportunity and upward mobility for everyone who’s willing to work hard for it,” Obama said, calling it “a prescription for decline.” But Republicans responded forcefully to Obama’s assertions. “If the president were serious, he would put forward a plan to deal with our debt crisis and save Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid for future generations of seniors without raising taxes on small businesses that are struggling,” House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement Tuesday. Ryan hurled some rhetorical bombs back at the president, accusing him of “tired and cynical political attacks as he focuses on his own re-election.” “The president refuses to take responsibility for the economy and refuses to offer a credible plan to address the most predictable economic crisis in our history,” Ryan said. “History will not be kind to a president who, when it came time to confront our generation’s defining challenge, chose to duck and run,” Ryan added. And in remarks Wednesday to the newspaper editors luncheon, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney blasted Obama on fiscal issues and said his remarks on the Ryan budget contained “distortions and inaccuracies.” The House approved Ryan’s budget resolution last week on an 228 to 191 vote. All Democrats opposed the GOP budget; all Republicans, except for 10, voted for Ryan’s plan. Budget resolutions set broad spending and revenue goals and make deficit projections. They are congressional blueprints and are not binding law. To actually change spending and tax laws, separate legislation will be needed. Ryan has said his budget would cut spending by $5 trillion more than Obama’s budget over a decade and would reduce deficits by $3.3 trillion more than would the president’s budget. Ryan’s budget makes deep cuts in the projected growth of federal spending and endorses the fundamental overhaul of Medicare, Medicaid and welfare programs. It also calls for repealing the 2010 health care law. The budget plan backs the extension of Bush-era tax cuts and undertaking fundamental tax reform in which the current six individual rates would be collapsed into two rates, 10% and 25%. The corporate rate would be cut to 25%. He argues that so-called tax expenditures should be sharply curtailed, but does not say which ones should be eliminated or reduced. His budget sets FY 2013 discretionary spending at $1.028 trillion, $19 billion below the $1.047 trillion that was allowed for in last summer’s debt ceiling agreement. Ryan also calls for enacting a package of spending cuts to prevent the $110 billion in across-the-board cuts scheduled to begin next January as agreed in the debt ceiling pact. It secures some of its savings by cutting the federal workforce by 10% over three years, freezing federal pay through 2015, slowing the growth of federal financial aid for college students and focusing it on low-income students. For the FY 2013-2022 period, Ryan’s budget would result in $3.127 trillion in cumulative deficits. If would not balance the federal budget until 2040. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad has indicated he will offer his budget resolution later this month. Conrad has not said what his plan will look like, but has praised Obama’s FY 2013 framework as a plan that moves in the right direction. However, in hearings this winter and spring Conrad has repeatedly called for bold fiscal remedies that alter the current trajectory of American fiscal policy. He has said the U.S. fiscal situation requires a 10-year deficit reduction plan that is even greater than the $4 trillion package developed by the Simpson-Bowles committee at the end of 2010. The Senate Budget Committee chairman said his “fondest wish” would be for Congress to support a deficit reduction plan of about $5.5 trillion over a decade. However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has signalled that he does not expect the full Senate to take up a budget resolution this spring. He said last year’s debt ceiling agreement has already settled discretionary spending levels for the coming fiscal year. ** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$] |
EURUSD back near days midpoint as day unwinds Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:33 AM PDT  - The EURUSD his back near the midpoint of the days range (see chart above).
- Price is back below trendline resistance at 1.3089 on the hourly chart below
 The week is over, except for the time ticking away. Weaker US, should not help cure any EU problems. Spanish and Italian yields (see weekly charts below) went the wrong way this week on a yield basis and in relation to the benchmark German bund. As long as debt concern remains on the front pages, this should be the driver in the markets as banks, the EU, IMF cannot afford a debt meltdown in one (or both) countries. Next week Italy has bond auctions on Wednesday which the market will eye (maturing 2015, 2020, 2023 bonds). Spain is not scheduled to tap the debt markets until April 17th when they are scheduled to issue 12 and 18 month bills and April 19th when they are scheduled to sell bonds (unknown maturity).  . |
Top Fed Watchers Differ on Monetary Implication of Jobs Data Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:30 AM PDT By Steven K. Beckner (MNI) – The disappointing March job figures released Friday left analysts divided over monetary policy implications. For some, the data had little import. For others, they reinforced the possibility of additional monetary stimulus. The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls rose by just 120,000 last month — far short of the expected 200,000 and even further below the 246,000 average of the prior three months. Prior months’ payrolls were revised up, continuing the recent pattern, but only by 4,000. The unemployment rate dipped from 8.3% to 8.2%, but this was ascribed mostly to a reduction in labor force participation after two months of sizable gains in the size of the labor force. In another sign of softness, aggregate hours worked fell by 0.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in February. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had been warning that recent job gains were “inconsistent” with the pace of economic growth and hence may not be sustainable, and the March data seem to bear him out. But the numbers are subject to varying interpretations and to different conclusions about the likely direction of monetary policy. For some, the slowdown in payroll growth was largely a matter of the weather. The unseasonably mild days of January and February were seen as boosting jobs, particularly in construction. March was seen as a “payback” month. But it may not be that simple, others say. Robert DiClemente, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup, said he found the 120,000 payroll number “not altogether surprising” because he thinks the underlying growth trend is more like 175,000 than 246,000. So he said, “there’s more numbers like this waiting for us.” While citing “encouraging” signs in manufacturing and government hiring, he agreed somewhat with Bernanke that the more sizable job gains of previous months may have reflected a “catch-up” or reversal of the panicky lay-offs made at the outset of the financial crisis and recession. After stretching productivity of their workforces as far as they could, firms may have been forced to increase hiring. But DiClemente said that if “a more normal alignment” of workforce and productivity has now been reached, “it puts a greater onus on demand going forward.” It’s a point that Bernanke and other Fed policymakers have been making. In a March 26 speech on labor market conditions to the National Association for Business Economics, Bernanke said “to the extent that the decline in the unemployment rate since last summer has brought unemployment back more into line with the level of aggregate demand, then further significant improvements in unemployment will likely require faster economic growth than we experienced during the past year.” And Bernanke said “to the extent that this reversal (of recessionary lay-offs) has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.” Neither DiClemente nor anyone else expects the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee to make any meaningful change in monetary policy or policy rhetoric at its April 24-25 meeting. Thereafter, policy will depend on whether demand is able to sustain an acceptable pace of job growth and prevent a resurgence of unemployment. At he very least, DiClemente said, the Fed will have to be careful not to inadvertently signal a tightening of monetary policy earlier than the “late 2014″ timeframe contained in the last two FOMC statements. DiClemente said financial markets will be hanging on every word from Fed policymakers to detect whether they might start raising the federal funds rate from zero earlier than late 2014, so officials will have to watch what they say. The Fed is depending on that “communication tool” to control longer term interest rates, so “you’ve got to make sure you guard that message,” he said, noting, “It’s very hard to acknowledge better data” without signalling a policy shift. Depending on how the economy unfolds, the FOMC not be able to wait until late 2014. But because of the potential “fiscal drag” of higher taxes that are due to go into effect in January of next year, if the law is not changed, DiClemente said he “can imagine the Fed riding all the way through next year with current policy.” Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman-Sachs, was more inclined to think that the FOMC might decide more monetary stimulus is needed, although he wasn’t predicting it. Hatzius said “not very much” of the March dip in payroll gains was due to weather. He said “more than wether boosted the numbers the last few months.” And he added, “most of the payback is ahead of us.” “The overall evidence is that the economy is still only expanding at a moderate pace,” he said. And so the FOMC “may still want to consider additional easing.’ “At the June meeting it will still be on the table,” Hatzius continued. “At that point they will have to decide whether to start another asset purchase program, given how the economy looks.” John Silvia, chief economist of Wells Fargo, doubted the FOMC will approve a third round of quantitative easing. “Our bet is that the Fed continues to pursue reinvesting proceeds but not an expansion of the balance sheet,” he said. But Siliva said “the drop in unemployment rate due to the lower participation rate has to be a concern.” So he predicted “no change in the funds rate at least thru 2013.” ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$$BR$] |
ForexLive US wrap: Woeful payrolls send dollar, interest rates lower Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:17 AM PDT - US non-farm payrolls rise 121,000 in March; unemployment rate falls to 8.2% as labor force shrinks
- February payrolls revised down to 203,000 from 227,000
- Greek interior minister says Elections seen on May 6 or possibly May 13
- US 10-year note yield falls to 2.05% from 2.18% before data
- S&P 500 futures fall 1.2%; cash markets closed
The dollar fell broadly on the disappointing US employment report. Yields were particularly hard-hit as traders were forced to price the possibility of a third round of Fed bond-buying into the markets. Lingering European concerns helped keep EUR/USD rallies limited to the 1.3110 area before stalling. We end our coverage with EUR/USD around 1.3085, up 20 pips from opening levels. USD/JPY bore the brunt of the bad news, gapping from 82.50 to 81.93 and eventually taking out stops below 81.50 before stabilizing. We traded as low as 80.30, briefly. We end at 81.53. EUR/JPY ends at 106.68 from 1.0785 before the data. |
Obama: Lot More Work To Do On Econ; Will Be ‘Ups And Downs’ Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:10 AM PDT By Brai Odion-Esene WASHINGTON (MNI) – President Barack Obama Friday lauded the fact that 120,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, but cautioned that the March report underscores there will be “ups and downs” on the road to a full recovery. “Right now no issue is greater than restoring economic security for all our families,” Obama said in remarks at the White House Forum on Women and the Economy. He welcomed the latest jobs report, which showed a dip in the unemployment rate to 8.2% and that the economy has created more than 600,000 jobs in the past three months. “But, it’s clear to every American that there will still be ups and downs along the way, and that we’ve got a lot more work to do,” he said. The president’s chief economic adviser Alan Krueger agreed with this assessment in a separate statement Friday. “There is more work to be done, but today’s employment report provides further evidence that the economy is continuing to recover from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression,” Krueger, chairman the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said. He noted that while both the establishment and household surveys indicate the continuing challenges facing construction workers, manufacturing continues to be “a bright spot.” Still, Krueger — as he does in every statement following release of employment data — stressed that the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and can be subject to substantial revision. “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available,” he said. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2%, from 8.3%, but the lowest since January 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The number of unemployed persons 12.7 million was little changed in March. Private-sector employment grew by 121,000 in March, government employment was essentially unchanged. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March. ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MGU$$$,MAUDS$] |
Reuters: Egan Jones cut US credit rating to AA from AA- last night Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:42 AM PDT The small, independent rating agency takes the US rating down another notch on the failure to curb the build-up in government debt. The US remains on negative watch, meaning another cut could be in the offing. |
USDJPY remains the weak one Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:40 AM PDT The USDJPY has rightfully remained pressured after the weaker US Employment report (along with the JPY crosses of course).  - On the daily chart, the price tested bottom trend line support at the 81.38 (low of 81.30) and rebounded only modestly.
- The 38.2% of the sharp fall comes in at the 81.77 level and this level will be topside resistance for the pair. The price could only correct up to the 81.68 area from the lows.
 A move below the 81.38 level is needed to push the pair further to the downside with targets at the 81.05 (38.2% of the 2012 range), 80.09 (50% of the same range) the next targets. The low from March will also likely attract some interest at 80.57. |
Obama: Jobs figures shows there is still work to do on the economy Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:35 AM PDT - Clear there will be economic ups and downs
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US DATA: Boeing Corp reports 53 new orders for in…. Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:30 AM PDT US DATA: Boeing Corp reports 53 new orders for commercial aircraft in March vs 237 in Feb. |
US yields likely to close below key technical level; the game has changed Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:26 AM PDT Today’s employment report has fundamentally changed the state of play. US yields have fallen back below the 2.08/2.10 area which had acted as a firm cap on yields for so many months before breaking to the upside in mid-March. Expectations for quantitative ease have done 270 degree turn this week. We went from about half-priced in early in the week, to fully priced out late in the week to being priced back in again at the end of the week. That will impact USD/JPY most directly but will make the dollar that much less attractive across the board near-term.  European jitters will not go away, so short EUR/JPY looks like the best way to play from the fundamental perspective. 105.95/106.05 is key support for that cross in the near-term. US 10s are down to 2.0550% in yield. |
US DATA: IRS individual tax return filing stats for.. Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:20 AM PDT US DATA: IRS individual tax return filing stats for w/e Mar 23 show number of returns +2.3% YOY but refunds merely +0.4% – see MNI Main wire. |
Next Week/US: Beige Book,Trade Balance,CPI,PPI,Consumer Sent Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:10 AM PDT By Kasra Kangarloo WASHINGTON (MNI) – The week ahead will feature a slew of smaller releases, with consumer sentiment, inflation and trade data filling out the end of the week. The U.S. trade balance for February, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, has widened considerably in the last four months, posting its highest level since 2008 in the January report. The higher deficit was largely due to a sharp increase in imports, as exports have continued to expand apace. While this month’s figure is expected to slightly contract, another upside surprise could have negative implications for first quarter GDP. March inflation data, which includes the Producer Price Index, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Consumer Price Index, out at Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to rise off the jump in energy prices over the month. The more marginal import and export prices report will also be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show a similar trend. The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment survey for April will be released Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET and is expected to post a slight increase. Consumer confidence data has been somewhat choppy in the last couple months, caught between conflicting signals of improving jobs numbers and rising gas prices. Initial jobless claims — Thursday 08.30 a.m. ET — are also expected to remain in the mid-300,000 range, a level that is consistent with strong job creation. The latest report showed no sign of momentum loss in employment, with claims posting the lowest level in nearly four years at 357,000. The Federal Reserve at 14:00 ET Wednesday will release its Beige Book report on the state of the economy, which will likely reiterate opinions from the latest statements by the Federal Open Market Committee, namely that the economy is improving moderately and that while the unemployment rate is improving it remains elevated. Other releases during the week include the employment trends index Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the NFIB small business optimism index Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. ET, wholesale inventories Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, JOLTs job openings Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the MBA’s mortgage applications index Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET and the March Treasury budget Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Below is a list of appearances by other Fed officials in the week ahead: April 9, 6:00 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform entitled “Financial Reform: The Devil’s in the Details.” April 10, 12:30 p.m. ET, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speaks to the University of Oklahoma on the economy and too-big-to-fail banks. April 10, 12:45 p.m. ET, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart speaks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform. April 10, 2:30 p.m. ET, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation. April 11, 8:20 a.m. ET, the Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart makes welcome remarks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform. April 11, 9:30 a.m. ET, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George speaks to Hyman P. Minsky Conference on deficits and financial instability. April 11, 10:30 a.m. ET, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren speaks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform. April 11, 5:00 p.m. ET, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard gives welcome remarks at Homer Jones Memorial Lecture. April 11, 5:30 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at dinner meeting of Money Marketeers of New York University. April 12, 9:00 a.m. ET, Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart moderates panel discussion on U.S.-Mexican relations in Georgia. April 12, 12:30 p.m. ET, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser speaks on economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington, D.C. April 12, 1:00 p.m. ET, Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to White Bear Lake Area Chamber of Commerce. April 12, 3:30 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom-Raskin speaks on “The State of the Economy” at San Francisco Business and Community Leaders Luncheon. –Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$] |
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