Preliminary magnitude 8.9 off the West coast of Northern Sumatra according to the USGS

More details as and when i get them …

UPDATE: about 308 miles from Banda Aceh and 638 miles from KL

Indian Ocean-Wide Tsunami watch in effect according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre

EUR/USD is seemingly just following the periphery/German government bond yield spread at the moment.

Having widened out for a little while (EUR/USD down fleetingly under 1.3100) they’ve just been narrowing again. Result EUR/USD back up at 1.3123.

Italian/German 10 year govt bond yield spread down at 383 bps

Spanish/German 10 year govt bond yield spread down at 414 bps.

For the 1500 BST  cut. ..

EUR/USD: 1.3025, 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3145 and  1.3200

GBP/USD: 1.5800, 1.5900

USD/CHF: 0.9140

AUD/USD: 1.0250, 1.0300 and 1.0425 (large)

EUR/GBP: o.8260

AUD/JPY: 83.70

USD/JPY: 81.00 (Large), 81.50, 81.65

Good morning all..

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3055/70, sell stops down through 1.3050, tech res 1.3138 (100 dma) buy stops through 1.3145

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5930/35. Bids 1.5875/80 and 1.5850/55 ahead of tech support at 1.5844 (200 day MA)

EUR/GBP: offers 0.8255/60 and 0.8275/80. Bids 0.8230/40

USD/JPY: Offers 81.00/05 from Real money, exporters and custodials. Bids 80.50/60 (BOJ/semi officials). 81.00 is a large option expiry.

EUR/JPY: 106.10/20, buy stops above. Bids 105.45/50, likely stops below.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0250/55 and 1.0225/35 (sovereign) ahead of sell stops 1.0220 and  barrier at 1.0200. Offers 1.0315/20 larger at 1.0355/60

AUD/JPY: Bids 82.50 from Japanese funds ahead of tech support 82.35 (100 dma). Offers 83.55/60

USD/CHF: Bids 1.9150/55, tech support 0.9125 (50 dma) Offers 0.9200/10, tech res 0.9231 (100 dma)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000 (SNB and 200 dma)) and 1.1995. Rumoured sell stops down through 1.1990. Offers 1.2025/30, 1.2045/50

USD/CAD; Offers 1.0050/55, tech res 1.0082 (100 dma), Bids 1.0000/05, 0.9975/80, larger at 0.9950/55

• Sees political will in Spain to resolve problems
• Markets don’t reflect Spanish fundamentals
• SMP not been used recently, but still exists

EUR/USD has slipped back, presently at 1.3105, hardly changed on the day now

As soon as periphery/German bond yield spreads stopped narrowing,  euro came under pressure.

• Dollar funding market improved post LTRO, still not back to pre-crisis levels
• LTRO operations, particularly first one, were used to stabilise banking sector
• The normalisation of market situation in euro zone has improved since February, but remains reversible
• Spanish government is taking reform steps, no reason why the market situation should not normalise there too
• Rise in ECB balance sheet isn’t atypical
• ECB decided on LTRO because of deflation risk
• LTRO inflation risk is in no way immediate
• Aggregate demand is not creating inflationary pressure
• Inflation risks could materialize as growth accelerates
• 800 bln euros of excess liquidity in euro system, which will persist throughout 2012
• ECB has instruments to absorb liquidity when necessary
• Banks must use favourable situation to boost capital
• Euro zone states should reform to support growth

That was reportedly notable buyer of EUR/USD earlier; well they’ve been notable seller of USD/JPY as well (obviously not in love with the old greenback then) 

USD/JPY presently back at 80.73.

Earlier reports had Kampo on the bid at 80.60. 

Talk of buy stops through 81.00.

Financial newspaper Imerisia reports that Greece may delay announcement of details regarding recapitalization of its’ banks till after April 20.

This would be a second extension of the deadline.

I’m sayin nuffink…….

LONDON ((MNI) – The Bank Of England said Wednesday it was offering
an unlimited supply of U.S. dollars in a 7-day operation.

The settlement date on the 7-day op was April 12 maturing April 19
2012. The Bank said the repo would be at a fixed-rate, with the rate to
be set at 0.63%.

–London Bureau; Tel: +442076341655; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

Whilst only fractionally weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of -5.0%, it ain’t good!!!

Meanwhile back at the ranch, EUR/USD has tripped aforementioned buy stops through 1.3120 and been to 1.3132, presently at 1.3125.

More stops through 1.3145.

UPDATE:  Large, and I mean large, US custodial notable buyer in latest uptick in EUR/USD.

Very slight narrowing.

Italian/German 10 year govt bond yield spread narrows to 391 bps from the 395 which greeted me first thing

Spanish/German 10 year govt bond yield spread narrows to 421 bps from 424

OK OK, I know it ain’t much, but it beats widening don’t it

UPDATE:  Italy now 388, Spain 418

Monitoring eurozone bond auction results is very much back in vogue.

Today’s offerings:

Germany sells new 10 year 1.75% July 2022 bund

Target amount: Upto 5 bln euros

Results due after 09:30 GMT

Italy plans to issue new 3 month BOT maturing July 16

Target amount 3.0 bln euros

Also plans to issue new 12 month BOT maturing April 12 2013

Target amount 8.0 bln euros

Results due around 10:10 GMT.

EUR/USD has ticked very marginally higher in slow early European trade, presently at 1.3110.

Talk of buy stops through 1.3120 and 1.3145.

EUR/JPY up at 106.10 from 105.80 when I sat down.  Talk of buy stops through 106.20 (amended from 106.10, whoops, need more coffee)

GERMANY DATA: March WPI +0.9% m/m, +2.2% y/y; February +2.6% y/y
– Germany March WPI: solid fuels/oil products +2.3% m/m
– Germany March WPI: grains/seeds/feed +1.3 m/m
– Germany March WPI: fruits and vegetables +1.5% m/m
– Germany March WPI: food/alcohol/tobacco +0.7 m/m
– Germany February WPI: data processing/communication flat m/m
– See MNI MainWire for details

From +1.0%, +2.6% respectively in February.

TOKYO (MNI) – The average price of regular gasoline in Japan this
week fell to Y158.1 ($1.96) per liter, or $7.45 per gallon, from Y158.3
last week, data released by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
showed Wednesday.

The decline in the average price this week was the first in nine
weeks.

The last week’s price of Y158.3 was the highest since Y161.6 seen
in the week of Oct. 14, 2008 and marked the seventh straight weekly
gain.

The recent surge in refined petroleum product prices in Japan
reflects rising crude oil prices in global markets on heightened
tensions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and U.S.-led sanctions.

The average retail price this week was 4.2% above the Y151.8 per
liter price seen a year earlier, with the pace of year-on-year gains
decelerating from a 4.3% rise in the previous week.

The average price of diesel fuel was at Y136.9 per liter, down from
Y137.1 in the previous week, the first fall in eight weeks. That
compares with the record high of Y167.4 recorded on Aug. 4, 2008.

The average over-the-counter price of kerosene for heating stood at
Y1,767 per 18 liters this week, up from Y1,766 last week. It posted a
record high of Y2,378 on Aug. 11, 2008.

The average home-delivery kerosene price was at Y1,884 per 18
liters, up from Y1,881 the previous week. It hit a record high of Y2,484
on Aug. 11, 2008.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

Financial bookies see FTSE opening down as much as -0.4%, DAX down as much as -0.2% and France’s CAC 40 down as much as -0.5%.

‘Proposal by mayor of Rasquera to become centre of marijuana production gets only 56% backing; however, he does not resign.’

Sign of the times I guess

TOKYO (MNI) – The Bank of Japan on Wednesday offered a more upbeat
assessment of the outlook for overseas economies, saying it had observed
some improvement recently.

“Overseas economies still have not emerged from a deceleration
phase but some improvement has been observed,” according to the BOJ’s
April economic report released Wednesday.

This was more positive than the BOJ’s assessment in March, when it
said simply: “Overseas economies still have not emerged from a
deceleration phase on the whole.”

The BOJ also upgraded slightly its overall economic assessment from
the previous month, reversing the order of its comments to emphasize
signs of activity picking up.

On Wednesday, the BOJ said: “Japan’s economic activity has shown
some signs of picking up, although it has remained more or less flat.”

In March, the BOJ said: “Japan’s economic activity has remained
more or less flat, although it has shown some signs of picking up.”

The assessment of public investment was also upgraded.

“Public investment has recently started to increase,” the latest
report said.

In March, the BOJ said: “Public investment has stopped declining.”

The BOJ left basically unchanged its assessments of exports and
industrial production, saying that they are likely to pick up in the
coming month.

The BOJ also maintained a cautiously optimistic view on the
outlook for Japan’s economy.

“Japan’s economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery path
as the pace of recovery in overseas economies picks up, led by emerging
and commodity-exporting economies, and as reconstruction-related demand
after the earthquake disaster gradually strengthens,” the BOJ said.

The BOJ’s policy board on Tuesday voted unanimously to maintain
practically zero short-term interest rates to help support a recovery
from deflation but also left the scale of its financial asset-buying at
Y65 trillion after raising it in February.

The BOJ maintained its assessment that Japanese economy would
gradually recover, led by improving overseas economies, but warned that
uncertainties over the outlook for global growth remain.

The BOJ has left its target for the overnight interest rate among
commercial banks at zero to 0.1% since October 2010, when it lowered it
from 0.1% as part of “comprehensive monetary easing.”

The BOJ will hold its quarterly branch managers’ meeting on
Thursday in Tokyo.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MMJBJ$,MAJDS$]

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em.

• Risk sentiment was very sour early in the session but has recovered strongly
• BRC: UK retail sales rebound in March
• KPMG-REC: UK jobs report shows modest growth
• Japan core machine orders +4.8% MoM
• BOJ may expand asset buying proigram by up to Yen10 trillion on April 27th: Press reports
• Australian owner-occupied housing finance -2.5% MoM
• Australian consumer confidence index -1.6% to 94.5
• New Zealand business confidence rises by 13% compared with 0% last month
• Nikkei -1% after opening over 1.5% lower; HK -1.3%, Shanghai -0.2%
• Gold $1656/oz; Oil $101.20/bbl

Once again the AUD was the main instigator as big funds got involved early and tried to drive it lower. Risk sentiment was sour in the early part of the session and when equity markets opened lower, macro funds and hedge funds sold the AUD across the board. Previous lows in the AUD/USD near 1.0230 were breached but the buying was also very substantial and the bulls eventually won the day, forcing intraday bears to cover later in the session. Ranges: AUD/USD 1.0221/88

USD/JPY has had a very tight range despite plentiful flows in AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY and of course the Asahi comments re further asset purchases. The market is expecting further BOJ action in 2 weeks but the amounts are still unknown. There is also an expectation that the BOJ will buy USD/JPY, possibly near 80.50 but at the latest neat 80.00. Today’s range 80.64/82

EUR/USD was mainly influenced by movements in AUD/USD and EUR/JPY. Talk of Sovereign buyers at 1.3050 and sellers above 1.3125 is keeping the range trading mode intact. Range: 1.3064/96

Cable 1.5850/80; EUR/CHF 1.2010/17

USD/KRW managed to break above its recent range highs as tensions with North Korea and it’s upcoming rocket launch weigh on the KRW.