Your forexlive.com ENewsletter | |
- ForexLive North American wrap: Euro shorts squeezed
- Fed’s Lockhart: Closer To QE3 Camp; But Only If Outlk Worsens
- S&P 500 gains 1.7% to 1357
- Fed’s Lacker: I still dissent
- Euro shorts climb but remain well-below record in CFTC positioning report
- Expect euro shorts to jump in CFTC report
- A chance for Treasury yields to base
- Lockhart sounds like he’s jumping off the fence
- Fed’s Lockhart: new round of QE3 would include MBS
- Gonna take more bad news to get QE3: Lockhart
- Lockhart says FOMC view changed ‘fairly rapidly’ from April to June
- CFTC strengthens protection of customer funds. No, really.
- Fed’s Lockhart: Mon Pol Untenable If Econ Cont On Currnt Track
- GBPUSD makes a new high
- EUR/JPY remains in downtrend but nearing support
- Mr. Market still trying to get back to square
- US BudgetWatch: Democrats,GOP Intensify Tax Cut Skirmishing
- Fed’s Lockhart: Policy “untenable” if economy remains on current track
- Stocks near technical hurdle
- He’s baaack!
ForexLive North American wrap: Euro shorts squeezed Posted: 13 Jul 2012 01:23 PM PDT
The euro touched a fresh two-year low of 1.2161 early in US trading but quickly reversed ahead of bids at 1.2150 and 1.2258 before settling around 1.2244. Talk of a large Austrian order, options activity and an old-fashioned short squeeze made the rounds but there was no definitive answer for what sparked the turnaround. Cable was even more pronounced and continued to 1.5577 from 1.5450 at the outset of US trading. Broad USD selling even spread to USD/JPY as the rout got underway, knocking the pair down to 79.07 before the pair fell back into a coma around 79.20. The gold rebound continued but fell just short of $1600. AUD/USD erased nearly all of the post-employment report declines, slowing making its way to 1.0230 after blowing through small stops at 1.0200. |
Fed’s Lockhart: Closer To QE3 Camp; But Only If Outlk Worsens Posted: 13 Jul 2012 01:20 PM PDT By Brai Odion-Esene JACKSON, Mississippi (MNI) – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President His comments, made to reporters following a speech to the Lockhart also declared himself “very comfortable” with the If the Atlanta Fed’s forecasts are “substantially adjusted because Lockhart is a voter on the FOMC this year. Lockhart said while up to four participants at the June FOMC “I would call myself a little bit more on the fence at this point,” Lockhart said he will wait for more economic data to provide So what would it take for him to support additional easing? “It In addition, it would require the unemployment rate — which is He reiterated that if that picture becomes “very convincing,” there Still, additional quantitative easing remains an option on the “I have been watching the economic data and listening to what “If I felt the economy required it — speaking for myself — I’d While it is important to consider the costs of a third round of “So I don’t think, at the moment, that concern about that so Lockhart told reporters the FOMC would have to consider a range of It is important — given the way the economy is performing and the Lockhart said, in theoretical terms, the obvious advantage of MBS “That would have a positive effect on the housing industry in Lockhart also stressed that the Fed’s decision to extend ‘Operation “I think you have to view policy as a cumulative and composite Asked by MNI if he has adjusted his forecast for when the first Now, however, “With the recent slowing of the economy, the recent Lockhart said the FOMC’s view of the world changed “pretty rapidly” He acknowledged that monetary policy is a blunt instrument that can As for Europe, Lockhart said the crisis there is “front and A major risk, he said, is the potential for an unexpected event on Another risk of the Europe crisis is its negative impact on The minutes of the June FOMC meeting published Wednesday showed Lockhart said new ideas are worth exploring, such as using the “That’s something that could be studied,” he said. ** MNI ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$] |
Posted: 13 Jul 2012 01:05 PM PDT That’s above the technical hurdle I pointed out earlier, a bullish sign. On the week, stocks eked out a 0.15% gain. |
Posted: 13 Jul 2012 12:54 PM PDT
He hits the nail on the head with that last line. Fed hasn’t been able to revive growth yet, why would another dose of monetary lighter fluid work now? |
Euro shorts climb but remain well-below record in CFTC positioning report Posted: 13 Jul 2012 12:43 PM PDT |
Expect euro shorts to jump in CFTC report Posted: 13 Jul 2012 12:30 PM PDT Weekly CFTC positioning data will be released in a few minutes and there is a good chance that EUR short positioning surges. The figures are calculated as of the close on Tuesday — when EUR/USD made a fresh 2-year low. It would be a stretch to expect positions to fall below the record at -214K. In general, positioning is a contrarian indicator so a higher number (less negative) is better for euro shorts. |
A chance for Treasury yields to base Posted: 13 Jul 2012 12:17 PM PDT Ten-year Treasury yields will close the week near 1.50% — the lowest weekly close in 6 weeks — but Treasury traders are showing minimal appetite for lower yields. On Wednesday, the extreme demand at a $21B 10-year auction was quickly wiped out without seriously challenging the June 1 low. Today, the market crept lower again but was beaten back to 1.50%. A test of resistance at the 55-day moving avg at 1.67% or the June high of 1.73% may be in order. Another indicator that bonds are about to slump is this week’s Barron’s cover. USD/JPY has similarly attempted to break 79.00 several times this week and failed. The correlation hasn’t been excellent lately but a rebound in T-note yields would like push the pair above 80.00 and signal a better tone in risk assets. |
Lockhart sounds like he’s jumping off the fence Posted: 13 Jul 2012 12:13 PM PDT Lockhart is such the tease. One minute he can’t decide whether the Fed needs to ease, next minute he sounds like he’s ready to call an emergency meeting of the FOMC. The man sounds spooked as hell. Leave it to Bernanke to sort us all out when he testifies on the Hill next week. EUR/USD is edging toward session highs on the dovish take from the Atlanta Fed chief and on continued buying in the S&P. That bad boy is up 1.75% with about 45 minutes left to trade. |
Fed’s Lockhart: new round of QE3 would include MBS Posted: 13 Jul 2012 12:01 PM PDT |
Gonna take more bad news to get QE3: Lockhart Posted: 13 Jul 2012 11:26 AM PDT |
Lockhart says FOMC view changed ‘fairly rapidly’ from April to June Posted: 13 Jul 2012 11:26 AM PDT He’s answering audience questions after his speech:
At some point, central bankers must be judged on their forecasting ability.What good are they if they’re wrong all the time. |
CFTC strengthens protection of customer funds. No, really. Posted: 13 Jul 2012 11:20 AM PDT You can’t make this stuff up. Just as the Fed’s are announcing fraud charges against the founder of PFG, the CFTC announces that it has strengthened rules to protect customer funds. Attaboy, slam that door after the horse has gone. The headlines are literally millimeters from one another. And many of you wonder why have so little faith in government…. |
Fed’s Lockhart: Mon Pol Untenable If Econ Cont On Currnt Track Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:50 AM PDT –Current Pol Support Rests On Forecast Of Output,Job Growth By Year-End By Brai Odion-Esene JACKSON, Mississippi (MNI) – If the U.S. economy continues along In remarks prepared for the Mississippi Economic Council Lockhart Lockhart, a voter on the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market However, “Elevated levels of joblessness have been very persistent “And to make a broader point, I am concerned that the already Lockhart said he voted in favor of the $267 billion extension of But recent data has shown the economy only added 80,000 jobs last “I think the stakes in the policy discussion around the FOMC table “It’s possible another policy decision looms,” he said. “If the Lockhart noted that he and his colleagues at the Atlanta Fed have “Risks associated with developments in Europe, the so-called fiscal While some worry about the risks associated with a further “I think reversal of the cumulative balance sheet scale and Lockhart said he does not believe that monetary policy is The decision to engage in additional balance sheet expansion should ** MNI ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$] |
Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:39 AM PDT The price broke above the 200 hour MA(green line) /back above the underside of the trend line at the 1.5536 area and stayed above. The high is now being taken out at the 1.5557 level and triggered some stops (up to 1.5571). A full retracement of the weeks range takes the price up to 1.55768. We are almost there. Looking at the daily chart, there is an intesection of the a downward sloping trend line and the broken support trend line extending up from the June 1 low. That intersection comes in at 1.5606 area. It would be quite a surprise to get up to this level today. However it becomes a target for early next week. The GBPUSD has a low to high trading range of 329 pips this month. The lowest prior trading range was 315 pips in Feb 2011. Prior to that you have to go to 2002 to have a more narrow month range. If the price is to extend the range, which way would it break? Good question and not sure I could answer it with any certainty. With the Olympics coming up there is likely going to be quirky economic data coming out which should make deciphering the true state of the economy difficult at best. The price is a few pips from the months midpoint at 1.5556. Perhaps that is as good a place to hide if the level of confidence of a trend move up or down is low. It may also be a level to judge bullish and bearish. Stay above = bullish. Move below = bearish. Use the 100 hour MA as a confirmation for the bears (at 1.5534 currently). |
EUR/JPY remains in downtrend but nearing support Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:31 AM PDT The best trade this week, in percentage terms, was short EUR/JPY. It felt like a volatile week but the pair is down just over 100 pips from last Friday’s close. Technically and fundamentally, I see no reason to get out of shorts until a test of the June 1 low of 95.60 but from a risk/reward perspective, it doesn’t add up for fresh shorts. A bounce to 98.00 appears equally likely to a continued fall below 96.00. Probably best to stay on the sidelines until there is a bigger bounce. |
Mr. Market still trying to get back to square Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:31 AM PDT Looks like the market-makers are still nursing shorts after EUR/USD’s sudden reversal at mid-morning in NY. Dips are quite shallow, barely below 1.2230 while supply lies overhead at 1.2260 on up to 1.2300. Small stops are seen around the 1.2265 level from the guys caught short earlier in the session. Looks like we may have put in a short-term bottom on the intraday charts with a double bottom in the 1.2160/65 area. A rally to the 1.2320 area could unfold if the textbooks are to be believed. Buying dips to 1.2220 with a tight stop for a 1.2320 target looks like a reasonable play if you’re willing to take home a EUR/USD long, not something everyone is comfortable doing amid a crisis environment in Europe. EUR/USD trades quietly at 1.2238, supported by a 1.5% rise in stocks and bounces in most commodities.
|
US BudgetWatch: Democrats,GOP Intensify Tax Cut Skirmishing Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:10 AM PDT –President Obama Ignites Hill Sparring Over Fate of Bush Tax Cuts By John Shaw WASHINGTON (MNI) – President Barack Obama’s call for Congress to None of the maneuvering appeared designed to actually find a Obama began the week Monday urging Congress to extend Bush-era tax “I’m not proposing anything radical here,” Obama said from the Congressional Republicans immediately pounced on Obama’s plan, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor scorched Obama’s tax plan and “On the heels of another devastating jobs report, President Obama House Ways and Means Committee Chair Dave Camp said Obama’s plan Camp said a one0year extension would “create a path for tax reform” The fate of the Bush-era tax cuts is one of the key elements The fiscal cliff refers to the convergence of three coming fiscal Most congressional Democrats support Obama’s tax plan, but some Throughout the week, there was relentless tactical maneuvering in The Senate was technically debating a bill that would allow Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the bill would give small Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell did not attack the small McConnell appeared to catch Reid off balance by suggesting Reid initially objected to McConnell’s motion, saying it was But then Reid modified McConnell’s request so the two plans would House Speaker John Boehner said Thursday the House will vote at the Boehner said a one-year extension of the Bush era tax cuts is an As Democrats and Republicans skirmish over tax policy, the “Given the country’s current fiscal path, policymakers should avoid ** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$] |
Fed’s Lockhart: Policy “untenable” if economy remains on current track Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:04 AM PDT
That is a Greenspan-worth muttering that means the Fed will do more if data doesn’t improve ASAP.
Translation: the economy is starting to stink and if it continues, there isn’t much we can do. A touch of USD weakness on the dovish comments. |
Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:37 AM PDT The S&P 500 continues its slow march higher that began late yesterday. The index was last up 18.5 points to 1353. A climb above 1355/56 would overcome the 61.8% retracement of the drop since the second week of April and point to a retest of 1375. The FX market is consolidating since the earlier breakdowns but a rally above 1356 may signal another round of risk appetite. |
Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:17 AM PDT |
You are subscribed to email updates from ForexLive To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 |
0 komentar