Nudged a low of 78.97 earlier, just short of a batch of sell stops lined up on a break down of 78.95, but it seems the reported semi-official , postal, japan lifer bids have resurfaced for the moment.

Bids at 95.50/60 inn EUR/JPY are just about holding the cross at the moment , but there  also sell stops looming there on a break of 96.40.

Day’s low so far has been 96.52

USD/JPY’s sitting around 79.08 with the cross at 96.57

We want a more European Germany…

Translation of a Bild interview with former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi who’s planning a political comeback….

BERLIN (MNI) – Germany’s Constitutional Court announced Monday that
it would deliver on September 12 a ruling on whether it will grant an
injunction against Europe’s planned permanent bailout fund ESM and the
EU fiscal compact.

German President Joachim Gauck has said he will not sign the laws
on the ESM and the fiscal compact until the court has ruled on the
injunction.

Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said in a newspaper
interview published Sunday he did not expect that the court will block
the ESM.

Juncker told German weekly Der Spiegel that constitutional
questions had also been raised in other Eurozone countries: “In Estonia
the rescue fund was examined by the highest court and was confirmed.
Therefore, I do not expect the judges in Karlsruhe to block it.”

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,MT$$$$]

HICP – June Trade – May
%mom %yoy %yoy – core SA (E Bln)

Median Forecast -0.1 2.4 1.6 5.3
High forecast 0.0 2.4 2.3 7.5
Low forecast -0.1 2.3 1.5 4.0
Previous period -0.1 2.4 1.5 6.2
-
Number of responses 12 17 16 5
-
4Cast 0.0 2.4 1.5 n/a
ABN AMRO n/a 2.4 1.6 n/a
Barclays Cap. -0.1 2.4 1.6 7.5
Berenberg Bank n/a n/a 1.6 n/a
BNP Paribas -0.1 2.4 1.5 4.0
Capital Economics -0.1 2.4 1.6 5.0
Citi -0.1 2.3 n/a 6.0
Commerzbank n/a 2.4 1.6 n/a
DZ Bank -0.1 2.4 n/a n/a
ING -0.1 2.3 1.6 n/a
Lloyds Bank 0.0 2.4 1.8 n/a
LBBW n/a 2.4 n/a n/a
Morgan Stanley n/a 2.4 1.5 5.3
Natixis 0.0 2.4 2.3 n/a
Nomura n/a n/a 1.6 n/a
Rabobank n/a n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 0.0 2.4 1.5 n/a
Standard Chartered 0.0 2.4 1.5 n/a
UBS -0.1 2.3 1.6 n/a
Unicredit n/a 2.4 1.5 n/a

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, July 13.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

ZEW – July Producer Prices
economic current – June -
expectations conditions %mom %yoy

Median Forecast -20.0 30.0 -0.3 1.8
High forecast -5.0 34.0 0.2 2.1
Low forecast -25.0 -25.0 -0.6 1.4
Previous period -16.9 33.2 -0.3 2.1
-
Number of responses 17 11 10 11
-
4Cast -25.0 33.0 -0.2 1.8
ABN AMRO -10.0 n/a n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. n/a n/a -0.3 2.1
Berenberg Bank -13.5 32.0 n/a n/a
BNP Paribas -20.9 31.2 -0.2 1.8
Capital Economics -20.0 n/a -0.3 1.8
Citi -20.0 n/a -0.6 1.4
Commerzbank -15.0 n/a n/a n/a
DZ Bank -21.5 26.8 n/a 2.0
ING -12.0 25.0 n/a n/a
Lloyds Bank -20.0 32.0 -0.4 1.6
LBBW n/a -25.0 0.1 n/a
Morgan Stanley -20.0 n/a n/a 1.5
Natixis -15.0 34.0 -0.5 1.5
Nomura -19.5 n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale -25.0 25.0 n/a n/a
Standard Chartered -5.0 27.0 -0.4 1.6
UBS -20.0 30.0 0.2 n/a
Unicredit -15.0 n/a n/a 1.8

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, July 13.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

How exciting!

In recent trade.

We’ve been as low as 1.2221 so far.  Presently at 1.2223.

UPDATE:  Oh I say 1.2236 bid!! Ya cud have made a few pips there!!

Right that’s me done for the day. Off back to bed……..

Councillors in the Hook of Holland want to fine weather forecasters for getting it wrong…

Unlike their UK  counterparts who are on a roll…….rain, rain and more bloody rain

Lowest close since March 2009.

Meanwhile European stocks marginally lower, DAX down -0.1%.

Spain’s IBEX underperforming, down -0.5%.

EUR/USD slightly easier at 1.2223 from the 1.2235 which greeted me two and a half hours ago.  Funny, seems longer.  Typically turgid start to Monday trading.

Buy orders clustered 1.2200/10, sell stops below there.

EUR/USD:   Bids 1.2200/10 sell stops below and through 1.2180, ahead of tech support/sovereign bids 1.2160/70 (1.2150 possible barrier) large sell stops through 1.2150. Offers 1.2250/60 (real money, sovereigns) and 1.2290/00 (funds) buy stops up through 1.2300

GBP/USD:  Offers/tech res 1.5590/1.5610. Bids 1.5560/70 and tech supp 1.5515/25

EUR/GBP:   Bids 0.7850/55 (barrier 0.7850), sell stops below, ahead of tech supp 0.7840/45 and 0.7800/05 (0.7800 barrier). Offers 0.7880/00, 0.7915/20, 0.7945/50

USD/JPY:   Offers 79.40/50 and 79.90/00.   Bids 79.00/10 (postal, Japan Life Co's and 200 day MA 79.04), sell stops through 78.95 ahead of more bids 78.50/70.

EUR/JPY:   Offers 97.00/10 and 97.50/60.  Bids 96.50/60 sell stops below 96.40

AUD/JPY:  Tech res now around 81.15/20 (200 day MA at 81.19), offers 81.30/35. Bids 80.40/45 and 80.00/10 large sell stops through 79.95 ahead of tech supp 79.35/45

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9840/50 and 0.9890/00, Bids 0.9780/90.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0210/20, possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.0180/90. Offers 1.0250/60, Tech res 1.0270/75 (200 day MA 1.0275)

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.1950/60 and 1.1930/35, likely sell stops below. Offers1.2005/15,  1.2050/60 and 1.2090/00, possible buy stops above

NZD/USD: Bids 0.7950/55 and 0.790-0/10. Tech res /offers 0.7980/00 (100 day MA – 0.7983)

 USD/CAD:   Bids 1.0130/40, tech supp 1.0110/15 (200 day MA 1.0111). Offers 1.0150/60 and tech res 1.0180/90

PARIS (MNI) – Faced with a mounting wave of factory layoffs, the
French government is preparing measures to protect the country’s auto
industry and a strategy to reduce labor costs, President Francois
Hollande and Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici confirmed over the
weekend.

The plan of the French car maker PSA Peugeot Citroen to shut down
an assembly line north of Paris that would cost 8,000 jobs is
“unacceptable” and “must be renegotiated,” Hollande said in a televised
interview Saturday, demanding that the number of layoffs be reduced.

Criticizing PSA’s development strategies and the dividends it pays
to shareholders, Hollande said a state expert would look into the
group’s books to determine the “real situation” of its finances. He did
not promise to stop the shutdown, but demanded that “solutions” be found
for each employee and that new industries be implanted on the site.

The government will present a “structural plan” for the auto sector
on July 25 aimed at protecting domestic production that could include
incentives to purchase clean cars, notably by public authorities,
credits for car buyers and measures to bolster research and innovation,
Hollande indicated.

Acknowledging that high labor costs could be one reason for
France’s loss of industry jobs and market shares over the past decade,
Hollande argued for alternative resources to pay some of the social
programs now financed largely through payroll taxes, which add to
employer costs and reduce employee take-home.

“It’s not normal that the financing of our social projection, for
pensions, for families…should be only salaries,” he said.

The national Audit Court advised recently that supplementary
resources to shore up public finances should come primarily from a broad
tax such as the VAT or the CSG, which also covers investment revenues.
Hollande argued that the money should come from “those who have most.”
He rejected the strategy of previous government to shift part of social
payroll taxes to the VAT and said the CSG should not be the sole
alternative either, “because I don’t want only households to pay.”

Moscovici, in a radio interview, suggested that additional funding
for social outlays could come from environmental taxes or from
dissuasive levies (for example on alcohol or tobacco).

Hollande confirmed his opposition to anchoring a balanced-budget
objective – the “golden rule” – in the national constitution, preferring
instead an overriding (“organic”) law that would not necessarily be
permanent.

“I don’t consider that a commitment that is obligatory for a few
years should be written in stone,” he reasoned. “The constitution is not
for a few years – it’s forever.”

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$]

–Merkel Says Judges Have All The Time They Need For Ruling: Press
–EFSF Regling Says States Could Avoid Liability For Bank Aid: Press
–EFSF Bank Aid Program For Spain Could Run Until 2028: Press

BERLIN (MNI) – Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker does not
expect that the German Constitutional Court will block Europe’s planned
permanent bailout fund ESM, he said in an interview with the German
weekly Der Spiegel published Sunday.

Juncker noted that constitutional questions had also been raised in
other Eurozone countries: “In Estonia the rescue fund was examined by
the highest court and was confirmed. Therefore, I do not expect the
judges in Karlsruhe to block it.”

The Eurogroup head criticized, though, that it is “not helpful”
that the German Constitutional Court has signaled that it might take
until autumn before it will deliver a first ruling.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with German ZDF
public television on Sunday defended the court. “The judges at the
Constitutional Court will take all the time they believe they will
need,” she said.

Meanwhile, the CEO of Europe’s current temporary bailout fund EFSF,
Klaus Regling, told German weekly Welt am Sonntag in an interview
published Sunday that Eurozone member states will not be liable for
fiscal aid given directly to their banks once there exists joint banking
supervision in Europe.

“If there exists a real banking supervision by the ECB, then it
would be possible that we give loans directly to banks and not hand them
over via the government as we do currently,” Regling explained. “Then
the country isn’t liable.”

Merkel stressed in the ZDF interview that the current fiscal aid
from the EFSF to the Spanish banking sector would still be handed out
via the Spanish government and that the country would be liable for it.

Der Spiegel reported on Sunday that the EFSF aid program for Spain
is to run until 2028 the latest. The magazine cited a confidential
proposal by the EFSF leadership.

According to the magazine, the first aid tranche for Spain of E30
billion is to be paid out at the end of the month. Of that, E20 billion
would go toward shoring up short-term bank finances, while another E10
billion would be reserved as a “longer-term emergency buffer.”

A second tranche of E15 billion is due for mid-November. At the end
of December a third tranche of E15 billion is to be paid out. The last
tranche of E15 billion would come next June, Der Spiegel wrote. Up to
E25 billion would flow into a so-called “bad bank” to buy up
“problematic debt”.

The fiscal aid from the EFSF is not to be accounted as Spain’s
public debt so that the country will preserve its access to capital
markets, Der Spiegel wrote.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$S$$$,MT$$$$,MFX$$$]

Bloomberg reporting.

• China labor market not severe, but deteriorating
• China job losses will get worse in Q3

Bloomberg reporting.

State broadcaster YLE reporting that Finland and Spain may conclude negotiations over collateral today. This would open the way to Finland’s participation in the Spanish bank rescue.

Strewth!

Senior Treasury officials are tipping Foreign secretary William Hague  to replace Chancellor George Osborne as the UK faces a 50% chance of losing its AAA rating, according to the Daily Mail.

Moody’s, in February this year, gave the Uk a 30% chance of losing its valued AAA rating within 18 months…

Who wud have thunk it? 

Europe’s woes along with a stagnating US economy and a slowdown in China’s growth are leading  the IMF to forecast a lower than anticipated global growth outlook, when it publishes its report  this afternoon.

Fed’s Bernanke will  also likely update his forecast on the US economy when he reports to the Senate and House of Representatives committees tomorrow and Wednesday….

UK Independent

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.2175, 1.2200, 1.2250, 1.2300, 1.2325, 1.2350

USD/JPY: 79.25, 79.70, 80.00

AUD/USD: 1.0100, 1.0150, 1.0165, 1.0190, 1.0300

EUR/AUD: 1.2000

GBP/USD: 1.5450, 1.5490, 1.5500