Good old New Zealand

Must get out there on holiday soon. Before I’m too decrepit to make the flight

Talk out there is that there are buy stops through 1.6040 ahead of a barrier at 1.6050 (more buy stops above there), but technical resistance sits up at 1.6058 which i’m reliably informed equates to a 76.4% retarcement of this year’s fall from 1.6302 to 1.5269 

Cable’s trading around 1.6025 after a recent high day’s high of 1.6032

LONDON (MNI) – The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme,
designed to boost credit flow, kicked in at the start of August but the
central bank’s own data show a range of mortgage rates nudged up on the
month.

Two- and three-year fixed rate mortgages rose in August compared
to July along with discounted rate mortgages.

Sterling two-year fixed rate mortgages at 90% loan-to-value
averaged 5.91% in August compared to 5.83% in July in the BOE’s Quoted
Rates data series while those at 75% LTV rose to 3.69% from 3.67%.

The average 3-year fixed rate was 4% for 75% LTV, up from 3.97% in
July although it fell to 4.13% for 5-year fixed from 4.18%.

Discounted sterling 2-year at 75% LTV rose to 3.54% in August from
3.51% in July and standard variable rate rose to 4.26% from 4.24%.

–London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

We’re presently at 1.2800 in slow trade after a brisk start.

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up a mere 2 bps on day at 5.72%

Italian 10 year govt bond yield steady at 5.19%

Up at day’s highs now around 1.0372 amid talk in the streets that the Dutch AAA name is selling EUR/AUD.  Decent offers await on the  approach of 1.0400 with technical resistance above at 1.2438 ( 200 day MA)

The cross is just off Far Eastern lows of  1.2338 with the pair trading around 1.2348.  There are bids sitting down at 1.2300.10 level which also houses the 100 day MA at 1.2306.

• Future ESM bank recapitalisation must be requested by states
• Unrealistic to have supervision of 6,000 banks soon
• European banking supervision should be focused on systemically-relevant banks
• Little downside risk to German economic growth forecasts of +0.7% in 2012, +1.6% in 2013
• Germany determined to cut their borrowing
• Germany will exceed debt brake requirements by far

That’s enough of all that……

-Jul Global Goods Trade Deficit Stg7.149bn vs Stg10.068bn Jun
-Jul Total Trade Deficit Stg1.517bn vs Stg4.333bn Jun

LONDON (MNI) – The UK’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in July as
exports bounced back strongly following a large drop in June due to the
Jubilee, figures from National Statistics revealed Tuesday.

The extent of the bounceback suggests the June data were not as
poor as many feared, and opens the possibility that the external sector
could add to GDP in the third quarter.

The global trade in goods deficit narrowed to Stg7.149 billion in
July from Stg10.068 billion in June. This was below the median for a
shortfall of Stg9.1 billion and the lowest since February 2011.

Exports rocketed 9.3% on the month, following a 9% decline in the
previous month. Part of this was due to a surge in oil exports of 28.8%
as well as a boost from exports of Diamonds, although excluding oil and
erratic items the trade deficit narrowed to Stg6.725 billion from
Stg8.433 billion, the lowest since December 2009.

The overall deficit in goods and services narrowed sharply to
Stg1.517 billion in July from Stg4.333 billion in June, the lowest since
December 2011.

The narrowing in the trade deficit was mainly due to a decline in
the shortfall in trade with non-EU countries from Stg5.077 billion in
June to Stg2.877 billion, the lowest since October 2005. The value of
exports surged 11% while imports fell 5.3%.

The deficit with EU countries narrowed to Stg4.272 billion from
Stg4.991 billion as exports rose 7.7% and imports were up just 1.1%.

-London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MT$$$$,MABDS$]

Sharp improvement from last month and Reuters poll of  -£9 bln

July Non EU good trade balance -£ 2.877 bln from -£5.077 bln in June, narrowest since Oct 2005, and much better than the  -£4.5 bln forecast. Seen on the back of improvements in trade balances of  oil and diamonds

Little reaction in the market with cable sitting around 1.6020

Apparently there are barriers at…

EUR/USD: 1.2825, 1.2850

GBP/USD: 1.6050

EUR/AUD:  1.2450, 1.2500

AUD/CAD: 1.0000, 0.9950

‘Months’………………………….tad optimistic there pumpkin

• Economic situation overshadowed by euro crisis
• German economy’s expansion is slowing
• Germany has become more resilient to shocks
• Germany better adjusted to globalization than others
• High US deficit puts pressure on World economy (yer, blame it on the septics!!)
• Source of euro zone crisis is bad policies in member states, this is where the crisis must be solved
• ECB is independent, this must be defended and respected
• Significant rise in German unemployment is unlikely
• Greece has made significant progress in consolidating budget (you big softy)
• Greece program must meet all programm conditions (ok not soooo soft)
• Greece program conditions can’t be renegotiated (you hard arse)
• ‘We’re on the right track’ in the euro region
• Stability and growth pact has ‘more teeth’ now
• Europe has learned from its’ crisis

Schaeuble speaking in German parliament.

In your dreams pumpkin……..  

EUR/USD sits at 1.2798.

We’ve come a long way in the past 24 hours, ain’t we

BERLIN (MNI) – The German economy is proving to be “robust and
resistant” despite a difficult global economic environment, the German
Economics Ministry said in its monthly report released Tuesday.

Current indicators signal that economic developments will continue
to be “quite stable” in the second half of the year, it said. Job
growth, though slowing, will continue to support private consumption,
the ministry said.

The report warned, however, that the downside risks for the
economy caused by the Eurozone debt crisis still outweighed the upside
risks and remained significant. The German economy is not unaffected
by the marked recession in the southern European states, it said.

The Eurozone crisis can only be overcome by credible reform
policies, the ministry said, and the bond-buying plan announced by the
European Central Bank can only be a temporary remedy. “Permanent
interest-rate subsidies for individual countries would set the wrong
incentives and are not acceptable,” the ministry said.

The German ministry welcomed the conditionality tied to the ECB
plan, however. “This means that any possible aid requires that the
benefiting countries tackle their structural problems,” it said.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,MT$$$$]

Official speaking at seminar in Madrid.

Guess he’s ensuring he gets taken out for a slap-up lunch

• European solution needed to stop ‘panicking’ markets
• Sees need for stronger European Commission (I have to admit they are a little wimpy)
• Calls for stricter implementation of European rules

Really?… would never have guessed it !

Apparently wiping out  widespread corruption in Italy could boost GDP by up to 4% and stimulate foreign investment.

Xinhua News.

Maybe what they need is some good old fashioned honest blokes back in power… Berlusconi perhaps….

We love the euro man, honest

EUR/USD at 1.2815.

Next hurdles for euro bulls, barrier option interest at 1.2825 and technical resistance in form of 200 dma at 1.2834.

• Welcomes conditionality of the ECB ‘OMT’ bond-buying programme

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Germany’s Constitutional Court has reaffirmed
that it will rule Wednesday on the temporary injunctions sought against
the Eurozone’s ESM rescue fund and Fiscal Pact.

The court issued a statement Tuesday confirming the date. A German
member of parliament had sought a delay after the European Central Bank
last week put forward the details of its sovereign bond buying plan that
will take place in conjunction with the ESM.

CDU parliamentarian Peter Gauweiler had asked the court to block
the ESM from entering into force until the ECB withdraws its bond buying
plan.

“The September 12, 2012, 10:00 (CET) schedule for the announcement
of the decision remains in place,” the court said.

The decision Wednesday comes three months after Germany’s
Constitutional Court heard oral arguments in the case. Germany President
Joachim Gauck agreed to delay ratifying the ESM treaty until the
court makes its decision.

While the court is only ruling on temporary injunctions against the
treaties, it is widely expected that its decision Wednesday will not be
overturned during the main proceedings set for next year.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: ccermak@mni-news.com –

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$,M$G$$$]

EUR/USD firmer at 1.2780 on the news.

EUR/USD:  Offers 1.2790/00 and 1.2815/25 (late Fri NY high 1.2817, barrier 1.2825) ahead of tech res 1.2835/40 (200 day MA 1.2834). Also barrier talk 1.2850 buy stops above.  Bids 1.2750/60 sell stops below, ahead of more bids 1.2700/10

GBP/USD:  Offers 1.6015/35 (Fri high 1.2035) possible buy stops above ahead of more tech res/offers 1.6100/20. Bids 1.5960/70 and 1.5940/50 ahead of 1.5920/30 (Fri lows 1.5923)

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8000/10 and 0.8040/50, Bids 0.7970/80 (tech 100 day MA 0.7974) and 0.7925/35 ahead of stronger bids 0.7900/10 (55 day MA 0.7902)

USD/JPY:  Bids 78.00/20 (likely semi-official, Japan Life co's, importers). Sell stops through 78.00 and larger through 77.90 ahead of larger bids 77.50/70. Offers from 78.30 up to 78.50(exporters) ahead tech res 78.67 (Ichimoku cloud base) and more offers 78.90/00.

EUR/JPY: Bids 99.60/70 ahead of tech supp 100 day MA at 99.37and more bids 99.00/10 with possible sell stops through 98.90. Offers 100.00/10 ahead of tech res 100.43 (Fri high)

AUD/JPY:  Tech supp 100 day MA 80.73 (o/n low 80.74) ahead of bids 80.30/40. Offers 81.20/30 and  tech res 81.56 (cloud top), more tech res/offers up at 81.70/80 (200 day MA 81.80)

EUR/CHF: Offers 1.2100/10, larger up at 1.2150/60 (Fri high 1.2156) possible buy stops above, but offers plentiful ahead of 1.2200. Bids 1.2070/80 and 1.2050/60

AUD/USD:  Bids at 1.0300/10, sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.0275/85 possible sell stops through 1.0270. Tech res 1.0350/55(Fibonacci 50% retracement level 1.0355- of 1.0545/1.0166 fall) and more down Offers 1.0390/00 (debatable barrier 1.0400), but likely buy stops above ahead of further offers/tech res 1.0430/40

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2335/45 and 1.2300/10 (100 day MA 1.2306), Offers 1.2360/70 and 1.2390/10 ahead of tech res 1.2438 (200 day MA)

NZD/USD:  Offers 0.8100/10 and 0.8145/55 buy stops above ahead of tech res 0.8185/90 (Aug 22 high 0.8187). Bids 0.8080/90 and 0.8040/50, likely sell stops through 0.8000