In recent trade. We’re at 1.2910.

Probably got orders from the middle east

Seems to be alot of sovereign activity about this morning on both sides of the market. Probably helps explain why WE’RE NOT GOING ANY BLOODY WHERE!!!

-UK BBA: Aug SA Mortgage Approvals 30,533 vs 28,750 Jul
-UK BBA Aug SA Remortgage Approvals 17,558 vs 15,895 Jul
-UK BBA Aug Net Change in Mortgage Amount Outstanding -Stg284mn

LONDON (MNI) – UK mortgage lending remained in the doldrums through
August, with approvals 13% below their year ago levels, even while they
showed a slight uptick from levels seen in July, according to BBA data
released today.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks said:

“People are acting conservatively in this weak economic
environment, maintaining debt repayments and building up deposits…
Household mortgage approvals are improving slightly but unsecured
borrowing continues to be subdued.”

Corporate borrowing also remained subdued, the BBA said.

“Weak trading conditions persist so companies may well remain
reluctant to borrow for investment or expansion in these conditions,”
they said.

Net mortgage lending grew by just 0.6% in the year to August, the
BBA said while the outstanding amount of unsecured borrowing actually
fell by 3.1% in the year to August.

The BBA highlighted the shift in net lending in recent years as
gross lending has fallen and homeowners seek to pay down capital while
interest rates remain so low.

“Gross mortgage lending of stg6.9bn in August was below the recent
monthly average and reflected continued low levels of activity in the
housing market. Historically, the difference between gross lending and
capital repayment produced significant net lending each month. However,
with declining levels of gross lending and high capital repayments,
resulting from low interest rates, net lending has reduced”.

While the Bank of England and UK Treasury’s flagship ‘Funding for
Lending’ Scheme started at the beginning of August, officials have
cautioned that it will be some while before its impact on credit
conditions can be assessed.

The BOE will release its Q3 Credit Conditions survey on Wednesday,
which will provide some insight into the availability of credit for
firms.

–London Bureau; Tel: +442076341624; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The German government has confirmed its bond and
bill issuance for the fourth quarter of this year at about a combined
E52 billion, the country’s Federal Finance Agency reported on Tuesday.

Germany will thus issue E35 billion in capital market instruments
in Q4, and E17 billion in money market instruments, both as initially
reported late last year.

The first capital market issuance for next quarter comes October
10, when Germany’s October 2017 Bobl is scheduled to be tapped for
around E4 billion. Germany first launched this security on September 12
with a coupon rate of 0.5%. Further topups are scheduled for November 7
(around E4 billion) and November 28 (around E3 billion).

One week after the first Bobl tap for this quarter comes an
increase in the September 2014 Schatz of around E5 billion. This
security was initially launched on August 22 with a coupon of 0.0%.

A E4 billion topup of Germany’s September 2022 Bund is penciled in
for October 24. This 10-year security was first launched on September 5
for E5 billion. A E4 billion top-up is to come November 21.

On October 31, Germany will top up its July 2044 Bund for about E2
billion, down from the E3 billion tap back on July 25.

The first initial capital market offering scheduled for the coming
quarter comes on November 14, when the German Finance Agency will launch
a new Schatz for E5 billion. The security will be topped up for the
first time on December 5 by E4 billion.

The debt agency is scheduled to release its calendar for 2013,
along with a detailed issuance breakdown for the first quarter, in the
second half of December.

–Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,M$$FI$,MFXBO$,MGX$$$]

• Eurozone is suffering from a crisis of confidence
• Investors are worried that the crisis is not being mastered, and that some countries will not repay their debts
• Eurozone needs stamina to overcome the crisis
• Still  against joint euro-area bonds
• Unit labour costs are still too high in the Eurozone
• Worth every effort to make a competitive Europe, must face up to economic gaps honestly
• Is in favour of EU banking supervision, but it can’t be rushed ( no signs of that anyway)
• There should be no bank recapitalization  without  a more common oversight
• Committed  to a balanced budget by 2016
• Germany has no plans for extra tax on high earners

We’ve dipped to 1.6233 at writing having earlier posted a 1.6267 session high.

That’s interesting. I got the impression earlier, but couldn’t confirm, that China was selling EUR/USD at higher levels. We’re back down at 1.2902 at writing.

Same as it eva was

Just incase you missed the Market News story to the right.

• Swiss franc peg has been effective and franc should depreciate over time
• Peg has limited damage to Swiss economy
• Short-term global outlook has worsened over last few months
• SNB’s baseline scenario sees Eurozone growth in 2013, yield data supports forecast of a gradual EU recovery
• Draghi bond-buying has calmed markets, announcement  had positive impact in Switzerland
• Structural reforms are crucial to ending the debt crisis
• EUR/CHF at 1.20 or 1.21 is still too low
• Doesn’t expect Switzerland to fall into recession, growth will be ‘moderate’
• Swiss labour market will lose some momentum
• No threat of inflation in the foreseeable future
• Negative inflation will end this year
• Franc hasn’t depreciated as much as forecast  but SNB will continue to enforce the EUR/CHF peg with utmost determination
• Ready to take further measures at any time, peg policy remains correct.

ITALY DATA: Sep SA consumer confidence 86.2 vs 86.1 in August: Istat
–Consumers’ sentiment on the economy rose to 71.0 from 69.5
- Confidence in the future outlook rose to 76.9 from 76.7
- Sentiment on the current climate was stable at 94.0

From 86.1 in August and just above Reuters poll of 86.0, but still not far off the historic low of 85.4 seen in June this year

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Greece’s future within the Eurozone remains
uncertain, Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported Tuesday, citing
central bank sources.

While Eurozone governments want to avoid a Greek exit, they are
concerned about raising new funds for the debt stricken country given
the rising scepticism of their electorates, the paper said

“If Greece is to stay inside [the currency union], governments must
make E30 Billion available,” one central bank official told the paper.

Central bankers are concerned that governments will put the
responsibility on the European Central Bank, which has already offered
Greece emergency financing of E3.5 billion and is holding around E40
billion worth of Greek government bonds, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung said.

–Frankfurt newsroom +49 69 72 01 42; e-mail: frankfurt@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$$EC$,MFX$$$,MFGBU$]

–Adds Outlook For 2013 To Story Sent At 07:00 GMT

BERLIN (MNI) – The German Industry Association (BDI) on Tuesday
reaffirmed its forecast for GDP growth of around 1% in Germany this
year.

“Even though the economic development in Germany in the second half
of the year will be somewhat weaker than in the first half-year, the
situation is overall relatively stable,” BDI president Hans-Peter Keitel
said.

First signs of a recovery in the Eurozone are becoming apparent and
the situation on financial markets has calmed somewhat, Keitel reckoned.

The BDI does not expect an economic slump in Germany next year,
Keitel said. “There will be an upward movement also in 2013 but somewhat
slower than in 2012,” he explained.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$G$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$]

We’ve been off  almost 40 pips from the Asian highs of 0.7977, to lows around 0.7940 in Europe this morning, and there’s plenty of market talk  surrounding the recent move down this week.

Firstly the well touted single farm subsidy which Brussels has to pay to the UK farmers, and this is supposedly worth around 3.5 bln euros. A UK clearer has the deal and the rate’s said to be determined at Friday’s ECB fix or Friday close, but on the flipside, the usual month-end rumours  of BUBA demand are doing the rounds again on the bush telegraph.

Another factor has been talk of an HSBC quarterly dividend  payment which has apparently kept the cable perky, which has also weighed on EUR/GBP

The cross is currently just off the day’s lows around 0.7944 with GBP/USD  at day’s highs around 1.6264

• Does not rule out adjusting pensions as last resort   (boy, anyone messed with my pension there’d be big trouble)

My choice yesterday was 1.2800 before 1.3000, but middle eastern sovereign buying below 1.2900 this morning (just told) is not helping my cause any.

Can’t they just do me a little favour and bugger off, pretty please

BERLIN (MNI) – The German Industry Association (BDI) on Tuesday
reaffirmed its forecast for GDP growth of around 1% in Germany this
year.

“Even though the economic development in Germany in the second half
of the year will be somewhat weaker than in the first half-year, the
situation is overall relatively stable,” BDI president Hans-Peter Keitel
said.

First signs of a recovery in the Eurozone are becoming apparent and
the situation on financial markets has calmed somewhat, Keitel reckoned.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$G$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$]

You don’t have to move to Bexhill on Sea as the Telegraph would tell you…

Just take note of this little story also in the same paper today 

Of course… no pain , no gain !  ;)

FRANCE DATA: September mfg sentiment index 90; August 90 — INSEE
– France mfg sentiment above expected;MNI survey median fcst 89
– France mfg execs’ September own-firm prod outlook -6; August -7 (-6)
– France mfg execs’ September sector prod outlook -52; August -44
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

Unchanged from 90 in August, but better than Reuter’s median forecast of 89

EUR/USD soars to 1.2914………..

Pretty much where it was when I arrived

Just reading morning blurb from big US bank with headline “Stuck in Limbo” Think they might have a point……

Let’s do a poll, what comes first 1.2800 or 1.3000!!  Drat just remembered, we did that this time yesterday

GERMANY DATA: GFK October consumer morale seen at 5.9, September unrev
5.9
– GFK Germany consumer morale as expected; MNI median 5.9
– GFK: confirms 2012 consumption forecast of +1% in real terms
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

With Jim O’Neill feeling aussie is overvalued,  what do y’all think?

We’re at 1.0425.

What will we see first 1.0325 or 1.0525.

Reason/s for choice really cool, but not obligatory.