• But the program would be subject to conditions
• Hopes Spain’s current policy to restructure it’s economy will bear fruit
• ECB’s role is to maintain price stability
• Banking union is being tackled ‘very fast’, ( not sure what he means by ‘very fast’, seems like a bit of  a slow grind  unless it’s all happening behind the scenes)

–Adds details on sectors to story transmitted Monday at 04:38 ET

Sep MNI analysts survey Aug Jul
median range
————————————————————————
Business sentiment: 101.4 102.3 101.8 – 104.8 102.3 103.2
Current conditions 110.3 111.0 110.9 – 111.5 111.1 111.5
Six-month outlook: 93.2 95.0 93.7 – 96.0 94.2 95.5
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Business morale in Germany continued to trend
downward in September, reaching its lowest level since early 2010, with
respondents downgrading further their assessments of both the current
situation and expectations, the Ifo institute reported on Monday.

Falling for the fifth consecutive month, the Ifo business climate
indicator reached 101.4, a 31-month low. The median forecast had been
for no change in sentiment, with analysts split on the direction.

The dampening forces on the German economy “continue to prevail,”
Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release.

With companies ever more pessimistic regarding their current
situation, the Ifo sub-indicator slipped 0.8 point to 110.3, its worst
result in over two years. Expectations fared no better, shedding one
full point to 93.2, its lowest in over three years.

In the manufacturing sector, sentiment fell by 2.9 points to -4.3,
its worst level since January 2010. Respondents were still negative
regarding the coming six months.

Construction morale also soured, losing 3.1 points to an 11-month
low of -10.1, with current conditions and the six-month outlook both
down.

After briefly slipping into negative territory, wholesaling morale
recovered 2.1 points to 0.0 in September, as a big improvement in the
current conditions components offset a bleaker short-term outlook.

Retailers were also more positive on the month, with respondents
more positive regarding their present situation and only marginally more
pessimistic regarding the coming months.

In services, sentiment recovered 1.4 points to 14.1 following three
consecutive months of declines, with the current conditions up four
points to 28.0. Despite the one-point slide, expectations remained in
the positive zone, Ifo noted. “Employment plans in the sector remain
slightly expansionary.”

The ongoing fall in business confidence is discouraging news,
considering the rebound in a number of recent indicators, including
Markit Economics’ latest German composite PMI figure.

However, while the latest PMI figure (49.7) had suggested that the
trough in manufacturing activity had been reached, Markit senior
economist Tim Moore was quick to play down the good news: “The halt to
the private sector downturn seems to have a fragile veneer, given the
reliance on pipeline projects over new business to stabilize output,” he
said.

The recent and stronger-than-expected improvement in ZEW’s investor
sentiment indicator was also encouraging after four months of erosion.
Nevertheless, the figure remains well below zero, showing that a
majority of respondents still feel that economic developments will
worsen in the coming six months.

“The debt crisis is not solved yet,” ZEW President Wolfgang Franz
said in a press release. “The risks for economic activity remain.”

The Bundesbank recently warned that risks to the German short-term
economic outlook had “increased notably” due to the escalating debt
crisis.

Still, “as long as demand for German products can be reasonably
maintained in emerging countries despite the darkening outlook, a
turnaround in the overall cyclical direction should not be feared,” the
central bank said in its monthly bulletin last month.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE]

Sep MNI analysts survey Aug Jul
median range
————————————————————————
Business sentiment: 101.4 102.3 101.8 – 104.8 102.3 103.2
Current conditions 110.3 111.0 110.9 – 111.5 111.1 111.5
Six-month outlook: 93.2 95.0 93.7 – 96.0 94.2 95.5
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Business morale in Germany continued to trend
downward in September, reaching its lowest level since early 2010, with
respondents downgrading further their assessments of both the current
situation and expectations, the Ifo institute reported on Monday.

Falling for the fifth consecutive month, the Ifo business climate
indicator reached 101.4, a 31-month low. The median forecast had been
for no change in sentiment, with analysts split on the direction.

“The dampening forces on the German economy continue to prevail,”
Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release.

With companies ever more pessimistic regarding their current
situation, the Ifo sub-indicator slipped 0.8 point to 110.3, its worst
result in over two years. Expectations fared no better, shedding one
full point to 93.2, its lowest in over three years.

The ongoing fall in business confidence is discouraging news,
considering the rebound in a number of recent indicators, including
Markit Economics’ latest German composite PMI figure.

However, while the latest PMI figure (49.7) had suggested that the
trough in manufacturing activity had been reached, Markit senior
economist Tim Moore was quick to play down the good news: “The halt to
the private sector downturn seems to have a fragile veneer, given the
reliance on pipeline projects over new business to stabilize output,” he
said.

The recent and stronger-than-expected improvement in ZEW’s investor
sentiment indicator was also encouraging after four months of erosion.
Nevertheless, the figure remains well below zero, showing that a
majority of respondents still feel that economic developments will
worsen in the coming six months.

“The debt crisis is not solved yet,” ZEW President Wolfgang Franz
said in a press release. “The risks for economic activity remain.”

The Bundesbank recently warned that risks to the German short-term
economic outlook had “increased notably” due to the escalating debt
crisis.

Still, “as long as demand for German products can be reasonably
maintained in emerging countries despite the darkening outlook, a
turnaround in the overall cyclical direction should not be feared,” the
central bank said in its monthly bulletin last month.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE]

-BOE FPC: Fin Stab Risks Not Altered Enough To Warrant Pol Change

LONDON (MNI) – The Bank of England’s interim Financial Policy
Committee left its financial policy recommendations unchanged following
its latest quarterly meeting on September 14.

“The Committee judged that the risks to financial stability had not
altered sufficiently since its previous meeting to warrant a change to
its current set of policy recommendations as set out in its June
2012 Financial Stability Report,” the BOE FPC said in a very brief
statement.

The previous meeting in June set out some major steps to help ease
a potential liquidity crisis in the event of a further intensification
of the euro zone crisis. The FPC then made clear to banks that they were
free to run down liquidity buffers in th event of market stress.

The committee had also urged banks to increase loss-absorbing
capital.

That June meeting had followed the Mansion House speech by BOE
Governor Mervyn King and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne at
which the Funding for Lending Scheme was unveiled as well as an
Extended Collateral Term Repo operation.

Market fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone had been at fever
pitch in the run up to the general election there. The victory of
pro-euro bailout political parties and the announcement by the European
Central Bank that it stands ready to purchase peripheral country debt
have since significantly calmed market tensions.

Today’s statement reflects the fact that the immediate fear of
Greek exit and spreading euro zone contagion appears to have been
successfully contained for the time being.

-London newsroom: Tel+44 207 862 7492; email: dthomas@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$,MT$$$$]

Calls Italy’s reforms ‘Courageous and ambitious’, but the country needs to overhaul its justice system to speed up rulings.

We’re down at 1.2908.

What’ll we see first 1.2800 or 1.3000?

Reason/s for choice always appreciated but not obligatory.

Stops tripped through 1.2920 and we’ve been as low as 1.2902 so far.

Talk of more stops through 1.2900.

Poor IFO data’s just knocked AUD back towards the o/n lows , but the move’s been partly cushioned by EUR/AUD which again is struggling to clear 1.2450.

Bids sit ahead of 1.0400 from  real money accounts and some sovereigns, but there are likely sell stops through the level and again through 1.0380.

EUR/AUD bids  sit 1.2400/10(200 day MA  1.2408) with sell stops below, ahead of bids 1.2375/85 and currently trades around 1.2407

• Business climate index would have probably fallen more without court ruling
• Optimism on stock market not boosting business sentiment
• German economic momentum has slackened in Q3
• Inflation for German firms not problem yet
• Consumption is relatively robust despite weakening labour market
• Does not see need for ECB to reduce interest rates further
• Downward trends still dominate, especially for exports

Reuters reporting.

Jared Cummans’ ( Commodity HQ) take on the current round of easing from the Fed and ECB  and ways to take advantage of a possible  strong rally in Gold

More… Seeking Alpha

Gold’s currently trading around $1761.50 after peaking last week around $1787.60

Demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 102.5.

Well that probably classifies as a bit of a tape bomb.

Ya now where the buys orders and stops are…..

We’re down at 1.2930 having dipped as low as 1.2923 on EBS.

People from across the world came together last night to celebrate and give thanks to John Terry for retiring from international football.

I had to pick this one out being a ‘gooner’, ….perhaps he could persuade Nick Clegg to retire from politics as well

EUR/USD sits at 1.2963, marginally firmer on the day but no great shakes.

Buy orders seen clustered down at 1.2920/30, light sell stops below there.  Sell orders clustered 1.2980/00, buy stops through 1.3010.

Barring a fairly major tape bomb, I’d be a little surprised to see either set of stops tripped this morning.

SO GO ON…………………………………SURPRISE ME!!!!!!

Ifo – September
business current expec-
climate conditions tations

Median Forecast 102.3 111.0 95.0
High forecast 104.8 111.5 96.0
Low forecast 101.8 110.9 93.7
Previous period 102.3 111.2 94.2
-
Number of responses 11 4 4
-
Barclays Cap. 103.0 111.0 96.0
BNP Paribas 102.2 110.9 94.0
Capital Economics 103.0 n/a n/a
Citi 101.8 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 102.0 n/a n/a
DZ Bank 101.9 110.9 93.7
LBBW 102.3 n/a n/a
Moodys 104.8 n/a n/a
Nomura 102.5 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 103.4 111.5 96.0
Unicredit 101.8 n/a n/a
–

CPI (flash) HICP (flash)
– September – – September -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast -0.1 1.9 0.0 2.1
High forecast 0.2 2.1 0.2 2.2
Low forecast -0.2 1.8 -0.2 1.9
Previous period 0.4 2.1 0.4 2.2
-
Number of responses 6 7 7 7
-
4Cast 0.2 2.1 0.2 2.2
Barclays Cap. -0.1 1.9 -0.1 2.0
BNP Paribas -0.1 1.9 -0.1 2.0
Capital Economics n/a n/a 0.0 2.1
Citi 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.2
Commerzbank -0.2 1.8 n/a n/a
DZ Bank n/a n/a -0.2 1.9
LBBW n/a 2.0 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 0.0 1.9 0.0 2.1
Unicredit n/a n/a n/a n/a
–

GfK – October Jobless – September
Consumer change rate
Morale (’000s) (%)

Median Forecast 5.9 9.0 6.8
High forecast 6.0 13.0 6.9
Low forecast 5.8 2.0 6.8
Previous period 5.9 7.0 6.8
-
Number of responses 4 5 5
-
4Cast 5.9 13.0 6.8
BNP Paribas n/a 2.0 6.8
Capital Economics 5.8 n/a 6.9
Citi n/a 4.0 n/a
Commerzbank 6.0 10.0 n/a
DZ Bank 5.8 n/a 6.8
LBBW n/a n/a n/a
Moodys n/a 9.0 6.8

—————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, September 21.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Nick Clegg is a bloody fool.

I’d really like to wipe that smug, shit-eating grin off his face.

He’s promising deeper cuts to turn around the budget after last year’s deficit doubled to A$43.7bln from original forecasts 15 months ago.

The 2011-12 budget outcome, released today, reveals a minor improvement in the final numbers compared to the May budget forecasts, with the underlying cash deficit at $43.7 billion from $44.4 billion, but still above  the forecast of A$22.6 bln.

Julia Gillard ‘ s government has promised a surplus of A$1.5 bln for the 2012-13 financial year, and Swan has promised the government would deliver a surplus  and keep to its policy commitments

By Jack Duffy

PARIS (MNI) – Spain faces a crucial test later this week as the
government prepares to unveil its draft 2013 budget, the results of
recently completed “stress tests” on Spanish banks and an economic
reform plan that many see as a blueprint for a future bailout package.

The events should help pave the way for an aid request to Europe’s
rescue fund and to the European Central Bank to start buying Spanish
debt, while permitting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to claim he is not
yielding sovereignty over the economy to outsiders, analysts said.

Madrid wants “to project the image that it has things under control
and can be trusted to manage the Spanish economy, even if it takes
outside money,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a research fellow at the Peterson
Institute For International Economics in Washington.

The 2013 budget, to be presented to the Spanish parliament on
Friday, will confirm Madrid’s commitment to hitting a deficit target of
4.5% of GDP, down from a hoped-for 6.3% this year.

A crucial element will be whether the government’s growth forecasts
continue to be significantly more optimistic than those of outside
forecasters. Spain’s most recent forecast sees the economy shrinking by
only 0.5% next year, while the IMF is calling for a 1.2% drop.

“The new budget needs to reflect the IMF’s views or else it risks
being dismissed as lacking credibility and subject to imminent change,”
the investment firm Jefferies said in a research note on Friday.

Results of the stress tests involving 14 Spanish banking groups
will be given to the banks early this week and released publically on
Friday. Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said last week that he does not
expect the results to differ significantly from an initial estimate that
the banks will need about E60 billion of the E100 billion credit line
offered by the Eurozone to shore up their balance sheets.

De Guindos denied market speculation that Spain might be able to
use the remaining E40 billion for other purposes – like financing
maturing sovereign debt. The credit line “is strictly for the banks,” de
Guindos told journalists Saturday, according to Spanish media reports.

The package of structural reforms to be announced in conjunction
with the budget is perhaps the most crucial element of the week, and
Spain has been working closely with the European Commission to design
it, Commission spokesman Simon O’Connor said on Friday.

The plan, based on the country-specific recommendations the
Commission issued for Spain in May, is expected to include all of the
measures and timetables Brussels would require if Spain were to request
aid, allowing Madrid to claim it is implementing the reforms on its own.

The reform plan and a fiscal assessment the Commission will make in
mid-October of Spain’s budget outlook could allow Madrid to “access new
aid with few, if any, new conditions,” a European official said after
the recent Eurogroup meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus.

The structural reforms are expected to focus on pensions, including
a planned increase in the retirement age from 65 to 67, reducing
non-wage labor costs, expanding labor market flexibility and introducing
competition into protected areas of the economy.

The Commission’s economic and monetary affairs chief, Olli Rehn,
told journalists in Nicosia that the package will spell out “clear
commitments and precise timetables,” including concrete measures for
cutting Spain’s deficit to 2.8% of GDP by 2014.

–Paris newsroom, +33142715540; jduffy@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$S$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$]

Will they, won’t they? Ya know, go for a fully fledged bailout?

Italy 10 year govt bond yield up 7 bps at 5.12%

EUR/USD off 6 pips since I sat down, presently at 1.2938.  It’s all go!!

Can’t we, just for once, have an active Monday……pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez

‘Greece rebuffed a report in Der Spiegel magazine on Sunday that claimed the country’s budget shortfall is about 20 bln euros.’

EUR/USD:  Offers 1.2980/00, likely buy stops through 1.3010 ahead of more offers 1.3040/50. Bids 1.2920/40 and 1.2900/10 sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2855/65 and tech support at 200 day MA at 1.2828

GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6200/20, sell stops below through 1.6180 ahead of more bids 1.6160/70 also with sell stops below. Offers 1.6250/60, possible buy stops above ahead of stronger offers 1.6280/00.

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8000/05 (50% of 5-14 Sept rise 0.8001) and 0.8050/55, Bids/tech 0.7975/80 (38.2%  retracement of July 22-Sept 14 rally 0.7977) ahead of 100 day MA at 0.7965.

USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/10(semi official, Kampo) sell stops through 77.95 below, ahead of larger bids 77.50/70. Offers from 78.20 up to 78.50, and 78.80/00 (78.85 cloud base, 100 day MA 78.98), buy stops through cloud top 79.27

EUR/JPY: Bids 100.85/95, likely sell stops below ahead of bids100.50/60 and 100.00/10, sell stops below each. Offers 101.50/60 Tech res 101.78 (200 day MA.)  Offers 102.00/10 possible buy stops above and through 102.40

AUD/JPY:  Bids 81.00/10 likely sell stops below and through 80.80 ahead of tech supp 80.64 (100 day MA). Offers 81.50/60 and 81.90/00 (81.72-55 day MA, 200 day MA 81.97), buy stops through 82.00 ahead of more offers 82.20/30.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0400/10 from sovereigns and possible SNB via EUR/AUD (55 day MA at 1.0402). Sell stops through 1.0380 ahead of more bids 1.0350/60, more sell stops below. Offers 1.0445/55 (RBA commercial, funds and models) and from 1.0475 up to 1.0500 with large buy stops above ahead of further offers 1.0540/50

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2400/10,(200 day MA  1.2408)  and 1.2375/85, likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 1.2300/10. Offers 1.2440/50  and larger up at 1.2490/00