BOE’s Posen: QE2 will be as successful as QE1 in the UK Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:59 AM PST - Voted for £75 bln of QE in last meeting
- Sees risk of more persistent inflation than forecasted
- Never given sovereign ratings that much concern
- Credibility with investors is more important
- Uk growth will be stronger in 2013
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BOE’s Bean: Expects very subdued growth in 1st half of 2012 Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:51 AM PST - Sees easing of household income squeeze,
- Headwinds from deleveraging and fiscal consolidation
- Sees inflation falling back to target in the near term, but uncertainty about inflation further ahead
- “Disorderly ” euro future poses risk to UK
- Sees “gradual strengthening” of economy
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BOE’s Tucker: “Tangible possibility” of calamity in euro zone Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:51 AM PST Happy Dayz….. - UK inflation likely to fall back further
- Outlook highly uncertain
- Sees wages, oil prices as upside risks to inflation
- Need to keep policy under review
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Senior Italian banker: LTRO an opportunity even if yields down Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:44 AM PST Dow Jones reporting. Italian and Spanish banks expected to be big takers of LTRO. Not long now till we get the results. I’ve been of the opinion a lower than expected take up would be good for the euro, but I don’t think the market agrees with me |
UK Analysis: Jan Mortgage Approvals Highest For Two Years Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:40 AM PST –Jan Mortgage Approvals for Home Purchase 58,728 vs 55,019 in Dec London (MNI) – The number of mortgage approvals rose to the highest level for more than two years in January, a sign that activity in the housing market is picking up, figures released from the Bank of England showed Wednesday. Mortgage approvals rose to 58,728 in January from 55,109 in December, above the median forecast of 54,000 and the highest since Dec 2009. Net mortgage lending also posted a monthly rise of Stg1.6 billion the highest since August 2010, and double the median forecast of Stg0.8 billion. Recent housing market surveys have found evidence of a pick-up in housing market activity ahead of the expiry of the Stamp Duty holiday for first time buyers in March and these figures may well have been boosted by this effect also. Net consumer credit bounced back slightly in January, rising Stg0.1 billion on the month, following a fall in December, but was still below the six month average of Stg0.3 billion. The broad money data showed M4 ex-IOFCs, a measure designed to exclude economically irrelevant intra-financial sector transactions, rose by 1.9% on the month in January and was up 2.9% on the year. this followed a record monthly fall of 0.7% in December. Other data showed overseas net purchases of gilts rose Stg9.408 billion in January, having fallen Stg10.663 billion in December. There has been some concerns that the December fall showed overseas appetite for gilts waning but these data continue to show a healthy demand. Overseas Gilt holdings had surged prior to the start of the second wave of quantitative easing, which began in October and continued to rise sharply through the first two months of QE2. –London newsroom: +44 207 862 7491 e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MABDS$] |
UK DATA: BOE Jan House Purchase Approvals 58,728 vs.. Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:40 AM PST UK DATA: BOE Jan House Purchase Approvals 58,728 vs 55,019 Dec –Jan Net Mortgage Lending Stg0.1bn Vs Stg0.987bn Dec –Jan Net Consumer Credit Up Stg148 mln Vs -Stg46mn Dec ———————————————————————— The number of mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for more than two years in January, a sign that activity in the housing market is picking up. Jan Mortgage approvals rose to 58,728 from 55,109 in Dec, above the median forecast of 54,000 and the highest since Dec 2009. Net mortgage lending also posted a monthly rise of Stg1.6 billion the highest since August 2010, and double the median forecast of Stg0.8 billion. Net consumer credit rose Stg0.1 bn on the month, following a fall in Dec. Other data showed overseas net purchases of gilts rose Stg9.408 billion in January, having fallen Stg10.663 billion in December. |
UK January Mortgage Approvals 58,728 (vs expected 55k) highest since Dec 2009 Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:31 AM PST Jan UK mortgage lending + £1.6 bln (expected £0.8 bln) highest since Aug 2010 Jan UK consumer credit +£0.1 bln (expected +£0.3 bln from -£0.4 bln) Cable gets a small 5/10 pip bump up to 1.5935 on the better approvals and lending data |
Germany’s Jobless Holds Firm At 2.866 Mln In February Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:10 AM PST –SA Unemployment: 0.0%(pan-German) FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ranks of the unemployed in Germany in February held firm at 2.866 million following January’s 26,000-person fall, while the number of job vacancies fell back, the Federal Labour Office reported on Wednesday. As a result, the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.8%. A majority of analysts polled had projected the unemployment rate at a slightly more modest 6.7%, with overall levels down by 5,000. In unadjusted terms, 3.11 million people were unemployed in February, up from January’s 3.084 million and enough to lift the jobless rate 0.1 percentage point to 7.4%. Job vacancies fell by 11,000 in February, reversing January’s rise of 6,000. Payroll jobs, which are reported with a one-month lag, increased by 86,000 in January, adding to December’s 57,000-job gain. A recent Bundesbank report said that the country’s labour market remains on course for further growth, noting that employment continued to expand in the fourth quarter of last year despite the economic downturn. A number of recent indicators also point further employment growth, though at a slower pace. Yet consumers’ outlook for unemployment over the coming 12 months rebounded in February to a four-month high, though remaining well below the long-run average, a European Commission survey showed. Still, recent labour market trends have bolstered the propensity to spend and fueled hopes for higher incomes, according to the research group GfK. “The undoubtedly positive situation on the German labour market has caused consumers to have high expectations of management and trade unions,” the GfK said Tuesday. “Employees hope that in upcoming pay negotiations, wage and salary rises will be higher than in the past with noticeable increases even after inflation has been taken into account.” The ongoing expansion of employment could lead to labour shortages in certain sectors, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has warned, proposing a number of structural reforms to counter the risk. “This includes notably increasing female full-time labour participation by lowering fiscal disincentives for second earners and further improving childcare supply,” the OECD said. “Importantly, labour migration needs to be better focused on economic needs, which requires lowering the hurdles for high-skilled migrants, for example by introducing a point system.” – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142, email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$] |
GERMANY DATA: February sa unemployment stable m/m vs. Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:00 AM PST GERMANY DATA: February sa unemployment stable m/m vs MNI fcast -5.0k – Germany February sa unemployment rate 6.8% vs January 6.8% – Germany February sa unemployment 2.866 mln vs January 2.866 mln – Germany February nsa unemployment rate 7.4% vs January 7.3% – Germany February nsa unemployment 3.11 mln vs January 3.084 mln – Germany February sa job vacancies -11k vs January +6k – Germany January sa payroll jobs +86k vs December +57k – See MNI MainWire for details |
German February s.a unemployment change flat Posted: 29 Feb 2012 12:57 AM PST Slightly worse than median forecast of -5k. Unemployment rate 6.8%, unchanged from upwardly revised 6.8 in January (prev 6.7%) Worse than median forecast of 6.7%. |
BOE Offers Unlit Usd In 7-day At 0.61, 84-Day 0.62%% Posted: 29 Feb 2012 12:20 AM PST LONDON ((MNI) – The Bank Of England said Wednesday it was offering an unlimited supply of U.S. dollars in a 7-day operation. The settlement date on the 7-day op was Mar 1 maturing Mar 7 2012. The Bank said the repo would be at a fixed-rate, with the rate to be set at 0.61%. Additionally, the BOE is offering an unlimited amount of 84-day dollars at a rate of 0.62%, maturing on May 24. –London Bureau; Tel: +442076341655; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$] |
Swiss KOF leading growth indicator -0.12 in February Posted: 29 Feb 2012 12:02 AM PST In line with median forecast. January’s data revised upward to -0.15 from previous -17. At 10:00 GMT we have important Swiss CPI data release for January, expected -0.3% m/m, -0.7% y/y. Look out for those accelerating deflationary pressures…… |
Bit of EUR/USD scuttlebutt Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:52 PM PST Chatter in market that there are very decent-sized sell orders just ahead of 1.3500. Mumblings of 3 yards (3 billion) Take it for what you will. I’m just passing it on. |
FRANCE DATA: Jan sa consumer spending on goods -0.4%. Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:50 PM PST FRANCE DATA: Jan sa consumer spending on goods -0.4% m/m, -2.2% y/y – Below most analysts’ forecasts; MNI survey median fcst: -0.2% m/m – Jan consumer spending -0.5% vs 4Q average; 4Q +0.2% q/q – Dec goods spending revised to -0.2% m/m from -0.7% m/m – See MNI MainWire for details |
French January consumer spending -0.4% m/m Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:46 PM PST Weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of +0.2%. On the plus side, December’s data revised upward to -0.2% from previous -0.7%. |
Germany’s Jan Import Price Inflation Above Expected Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:10 PM PST January: +1.3% m/m, +3.7% y/y MNI survey median: +0.6% m/m, +3.2% y/y MNI survey range: +0.1% to +0.9% m/m December: +0.3% m/m, +3.9% y/y November: +0.4% m/m, +6.0% y/y – FRANKFURT (MNI) – German import price inflation accelerated in January to a one-year high, boosted by all major components, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday. After slowing modestly in December, import prices jumped 1.3% in January, beating all expectations and resulting in an annual rise of 3.7%. Excluding crude oil (+4.3% m/m, +17.7% y/y) and petroleum products (+6.8% m/m, +18.6% y/y), core import prices increased 0.7% on the month and 1.6% on the year. Amid mounting tensions over the EU’s embargo of Iranian oil, crude prices surpassed $125 a barrel this week, underlining upside risks for imported inflation. The International Energy Agency argues that market participants may be overestimating the impact of reduced oil from the Islamic Republic in a period when slowing economic activity could dampen energy demand. “The market in 2012 likely has sufficient supply-side flexibility – between existing OPEC spare capacity and expected 2012 capacity additions among OPEC and non-OPEC producers – to adjust to any loss in Iranian volumes,” the agency said in its latest Oil Market Report. “There is also, as ever, the back-stop provided by strategic stocks in the event that market mechanisms fail,” it reminded. “Despite these assurances, perceptions of impending supply issues are clearly placing a floor under oil prices for now.” Signs are already pointing to increased pipeline price pressures. The February PMI surveys linked costlier energy to a significant jump in input price inflation. Often the first to reflect changing trends in commodity prices, intermediate goods imports were 0.5% more expensive than in December, but still 0.7% cheaper compared to January of last year Imports of capital goods were also 0.5% more expensive on the month, resulting in an annual rise of 0.9%. Consumer goods import prices were up 0.8% on the month, as durable goods prices rose 0.5% and non-durables were up 0.9%. On the year, consumer durable import prices increased 3.2%. Export prices were 0.8% higher on the month, leaving the annual rate steady at 2.1%, the statistics office added. – Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: MTABLE,M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$] |
Germany’s Jan ILO Employment Hits New Record; +93,000 M/M Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:10 PM PST – Jan +93k, Dec +55k, Nov +77k, Oct +20k, Sep +30k, Aug +14k, Jul +38k FRANKFURT (MNI) – German employment extended its run of consecutive increases to 23 months in January, reaching a new all-time high, though unemployment rebounded at the same time, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday. Taking into account upward revisions over the past five previous months, January’s 93,000 increase bumped the employment level to a new record high of 41.368 million. Over the same period, the ranks of the unemployment rose by 23,000 persons, lifting the jobless rate 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%. Boosted by hiring plans in industry and construction, the Ifo institute’s employment barometer recovered modestly last month after slipping to its lowest level in over a year, indicating that “the positive trend” in the German labour market continued into 2012. The February PMI polls also signaled further growth in private sector jobs, marking two full years of continuous expansion. In its latest monthly bulletin, the Bundesank said the labour market remains on course for growth, noting that employment continued to expand in the last quarter of 2011 despite the downturn in economic activity. At 8:55 GMT today, the Labour Ministry is scheduled to release jobless figures for February. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142: email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$] |
GERMANY DATA: January import prices +1.3% m/m, +3.7%. Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:10 PM PST GERMANY DATA: January import prices +1.3% m/m, +3.7% y/y; December +3.9% y/y – Germany January import prices above MNI median m/m fcast (+0.6%) – Germany January export prices +0.8% m/m, +2.1% y/y; dec +2.1% y/y – Germany January ex-oil/oil products +0.7% m/m, +1.6% y/y – Germany January import prices: energy goods +3.6% m/m, +17.4% y/y – Germany January import prices: oil +4.3% m/m;natural gas +0.7% m/m – Germany January import prices: petroleum products +6.8% m/m – See MNI MainWire for details |
GERMANY DATA: Employment in Germany rose by 93,000… Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:10 PM PST GERMANY DATA: Employment in Germany rose by 93,000 persons to 41.368 million in January, as measured in ILO terms, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday. Over the same period, unemployment was up by 20,000 persons to reach 2.45 million, lifting the jobless rate to 5.8% from December’s 5.7% level. – See MNI MainWire for details |
Eurostoxx 50 futures up +0.3% early Posted: 28 Feb 2012 11:06 PM PST DAX and CAC 40 futures both up +0.3%. |