Just taken out sell stops through 80.50 and 80.40 to 80.31 . There should be some bids around 80.00 ahead of tech support at 79.85/95, with sell stops down through there.

Tech support at 79.70 seen to be the all important level now which if holds will  keep the upside bias in play.

We’re sitting at 80.50

January sa M3: +2.5% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.0% y/y
SA private loans: +1.1% y/y

MNI survey median:
January sa M3: +1.8% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +1.8% y/y
SA private loans: +1.1% y/y

MNI survey range:
January sa M3: +1.5% to +2.0% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +1.0% to +1.9% y/y
SA private loans: +0.7% to +1.4% y/y

December sa M3: +1.5% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.1% y/y
SA private loans: +1.0% y/y
—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Private sector loans in the Eurozone rose much as
expected in January, while M3 broad money supply surprised to the
upside, increasing at its fastest annual pace since October, the
European Central Bank reported on Monday.

Rising 1.1% on the year, loan growth recovered modestly after
troughing in December. Factoring in sales and securitisation, private
sector loans picked up speed to +1.5% from December’s +1.2%. As a
result, overall credit to the private sector increased 0.7% y/y, up 0.3
percentage point from the previous month’s rate.

Credit to households slowed to +1.3% on the year, as loans for the
purchase of a new home – the most important component of consumer
borrowing – slipped half a percentage point to +1.8%.

Loans to non-financial corporations also decelerated, coming to
+0.7% from December’s +1.1%. On the month, loans declined by E1 billion
after drops of E35 billion in December and E8 billion in November.

At his press conference earlier this month, ECB President Mario
Draghi said there were indications that bank lending conditions had
continued to tighten. Yet one could not “draw firm conclusions from
these developments, particularly given that the impact of the first
three-year LTRO on bank funding is still unfolding and may not have been
fully reflected in the most recent bank lending survey.”

ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen estimated on the
sidelines of the G20 summit this weekend that the first three-year LTRO,
which injected close to half a trillion euros into the banking system,
had had a “positive effect”.

The second three-year longer-term refinancing operation scheduled
for this Wednesday is also likely to bring robust demand from banks,
most observers believe. Some expect a much larger draw.

In the 12 months to January, M3 money supply rose 2.5%, while
December’s growth rate was revised down 0.1 percentage point to +1.5%,
bringing the three-month moving average to +2.0%.

Among the components of M3, M1 narrow money increased 2.0% compared
to +1.6% in December, while the annual growth rate of short-term
deposits other than overnight deposits picked up to +2.6% from +1.9%
previously. Marketable instruments increased 4.3% on the year after
falling 0.5% y/y in December.

While favourable base effects and slowing activity are widely
expected to lead to a slowdown in inflation in the coming months,
costlier energy poses an upside risk for the near term. A European
Commission poll showed selling price expectations rising across all
major sectors in January.

Nevertheless, companies’ ability to pass on costs to clients
remains limited for the time being. Firms polled in February’s PMI
reported a fall in prices charged for the third consecutive month, as
cheaper prices in the services sector offset the “moderate” rise in
industry.

–Frankfurt newsroom +49 69 720 142; e-mail:frankfurt@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$EC$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$,MTABLE]

ITALY DATA: February business confidence fell to 91.5 from 92.1 in
January, as a result of worsening current orders and a decline in
expected export orders . The index maintained a two-year low, ISTAT
said (Nov 2009 89.6).
–January current orders fell to -36 from -32 in
January, while the 3-month outlook for output rose to 0 from -3 in
January.
–Current inventory levels rose to +2 (Jan +1) –See
headlines on main wire.

• Will use micro-tools to balance cross border flows
• Growth in FX reserves is slowing
• Will prevent abnormal capital flows

Stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 1.8%.

M3 moving average Nov-Jan 2.0% vs 2.1% Oct-Dec.

January annual growth in loans to private sctor 1.1%, in line with Reuters median forecast.

From 92.1 in January, below Reuters’ median forecast of 92.4.

In recent trade.

We’re at 1.3423 from session low 1.3418 (Reuters) 1.3420 (EBS) .

Bout time they got it round their necks, ain’t it?     ;)

Certainly not much of a bounce so far.

From no lesser a light than the mighty Nomura.

Buy USD/JPY 80.70 with stop at 80.40, target 81.30.

Guess we better label it a “short-term” trade recommendation.

USD/JPY down at 80.90 from 81.15 when I parked by bum, with real money notable sellers.

Talk of sell stops through 80.50. Guess they’ll be some through 80.40 now as well

BERLIN (MNI) – The German government expects broad majority backing
for the second aid package at today’s vote in parliament, given that the
main opposition parties, the center-left SPD and the ecologist Greens,
have signaled their support.

“I expect that we will have a broad majority together with the
Greens and the SPD,” Peter Altmaier, the whip of Chancellor Angela
Merkel’s CDU/CSU parliamentary group, told German ARD national
television today.

Moreover, the government coalition will also have a majority on its
own and not depend on the opposition, Altmaier said.

Altmaier said he expected that Interior Minister Hans-Peter
Friedrich would also vote in favor of the Greek aid package.

The German weekly Der Spiegel over the weekend quoted Friedrich as
saying that he would advise Greece to leave the Eurozone because this
would improve the chances of the country to regain its competitiveness.

Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, in an interview with the German
daily Die Welt published Monday, criticized Friedrich for his proposal,
which goes against the official government line to keep Greece in the
Eurozone.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday that he did not
exclude that Greece might need further financial help from its Eurozone
peers before 2020.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,MFX$$$,M$Y$$$,M$G$$$,MT$$$$]

Start with Italy.  Planning to sell 8.75 bln 6-month BOT maturing August 31 and 3.5 bln BOT maturing December 20

Results due around 10:10 GMT

Germany planning to sell 3.0 bln 12 month Bubill maturing February 27 2013

Results around 10:30 GMT

Belgium taps 3.50% June 2017  OLO63, 4.25% September 2022 OLO65 and 4.25% March 2041 OLO60 issues for 1-9-2.9 bln

Results due around 11:10 GMT.

– See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is
forecast to have remained at 4.6% in January while the ratio of job
offers to seekers is seen improving to 0.72 in January from 0.71 in
December, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by
Market News International.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will release
the unemployment rate while the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
will release the ratio of job offers to seekers, both at 0830 JST on
Friday, Mar. 2 (2330 GMT Thursday).

In January, the ratio of job offers to seekers, which is seen as a
coincident indicator of the economy, is expected to have posted the
highest figure since 0.75 marked in November 2008.

The labor market has been improving gradually but slower global
demand, which has already dented Japan’s exports, is making a sustained
jobs recovery uncertain.

The number of jobless workers is on a downtrend, falling 240,000 on
year to 2.75 million in December, while the number of employed people
dropped 100,000 from a year earlier to 62.22 million in the month, hit
by a continued slump in wholesale and retail sectors as well as
manufacturing,

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

FRANCE DATA: Jan PPI +0.6% m/m, +4.2% y/y; Dec: -0.1% m/m, +4.6% y/y
–Jan PPI y/y below expected; MNI analysts survey median forecast +4.5%
–Jan manufacturing PPI +0.7% m/m, +3.8% y/y
–Jan oil product prices +4.9% m/m, +18.9% y/y
–Jan food and tobacco prices -0.1% m/m, +3.9% y/y
–Jan industry import prices +1.2% m/m, +5.3% y/y
See Mainwire for more details

Stronger than median forecast +0.4%.

Does anyone care? I’d hazard a guess, not many.

It’s been a slow start to European trade.  Something of a typical Monday.

EUR/USD touch firmer at 1.3457 from around 1.3445 when I parked by bum.

ACB buying noted sub 1.3440.

Talk of sell orders clustered 1.3480/00 ahead of 1.3500 barrier option interest.

Above 1.3500 we got 1.3510 as notable technical resistance (38.2% fibo retracement 1.4940-1.2626)

– See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese real average household spending in January
is expected to have slipped 0.9% from a year earlier on bad weather
conditions, posting the first year-on-year fall in two months after
+0.5% in December and -3.2% in November, according to the median
forecast of analysts surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will release
the data at 0830 JST on Friday, Mar. 2 (2330 GMT Thursday).

Freezing temperatures boosted demand for winter clothing but heavy
snowfalls hampered shopping in some areas and consumer electronics
remained sluggish, leading to weaker household spending, economists
said.

Recent data showed that combined department store sales fell 1.1%
y/y in January after +0.8% in December while domestic shipments of audio
and visual electronic appliances slumped 33.9% on year in January
following -50.5% in December.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

Financial bookies see FTSE down around -0.2%, DAX down around -0.4% and CAC 40 down around -0.3%.

Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.

–Originally transmitted on Sunday at 04:00 ET

MEXICO CITY (MNI) – The German economy is basically in good shape
but the sovereign debt crisis will determine the robustness of growth in
the Eurozone’s largest economy and elsewhere, European Central Bank
Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said late Saturday.

Weidmann, who heads the German Bundesbank, told journalists in a
briefing on the margins of the meeting of G-20 financial ministers and
central bank governors that the current global economic environment is
one in which a weak phase seems to be giving way to signs of
improvement.

“Inasmuch, there are chances that the relatively pessimistic
prognoses of the IMF are exceeded,” he said.

In Germany, “prospects have brightened recently,” he said, noting
positive developments such as the continued favorable trend on the labor
market as well as “normal” capacity utilization.

“The German economy is in good condition fundamentally,” he said.
“However, business-cycle prospects not just in Germany hinge also on the
development of the debt crisis.”

Weidmann reiterated the assertion of his speech at Friday’s IIF
conference here, saying that in contrast to the views of some, “Germany
already makes a substantial contribution” to stability, a fact he
complained is “sometimes swept under the carpet.”

Germany does this, he argued, not merely by shouldering its proper
share of the financial burden of common measures, “but also in its role
as an anchor of stability” and by championing rules for a viable
currency union.

He again took to task those who would urge that “Germany should use
its fiscal room to maneuver to support the business cycle” elsewhere in
Europe.

Such demands overlook the fact that “the positive effects on the
periphery of the Eurozone are relatively slight,” especially compared to
the cost of “shattering confidence in the German consolidation course.”

–Frankfurt bureau tel.: +49-69-720142. Email: dbarwick@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,MT$$$$,M$$EC,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$]

–Originally transmitted on Sunday at 04:00 ET

MEXICO CITY (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on
Saturday downplayed expectations for any decision on a larger Eurozone
bailout fund at the upcoming EU leaders summit and refrained from
signaling German support for boosting the fund.

“The heads of state and governments in December decided that they
will review whether the sum [available to the rescue fund] is sufficient
in March,” Schaeuble said during a press briefing during the meeting of
G-20 finance ministers and central bankers.

He stressed that March had 31 days, thus signaling that no decision
should be expected for the upcoming European leaders summit on March
1-2.

Pressed on Germany’s position on combining the temporary rescue
fund with its permanent successor to boost it to E750 billion, ,
Schaeuble merely reiterated that “the question will be decided in
March.”

The comments come following media reports that Germany is now ready
to support a larger European firewall.

The outcome of this review in March “will also depend on the speed
with which the capital will be paid into the ESM,” Schaeuble said. He
said that there has been some tendency “to say, ‘let’s not do it in five
tranches but in two tranches.’”

An early capitalization of the ESM could make boosting the total
sum less pressing. In earlier comments in Mexico, Schaeuble did not
sound as though Germany would be quick to boost the fund.

“Should we make collectivise sovereign debt in the Eurozone? Should
the European Central Bank print money to finance the member states’
budgets? Should we make the firewalls ever bigger? The answer is an
emphatic no,” Schaeuble said in a newspaper contribution.

Schaeuble also said Saturday that during the G-20 meetings he had
had “intensive discussion” about the state of the Eurozone debt crisis.
“I believe you can conclude that all participants view very positively
what we have come up with in Europe. There is no deviating assessment
that we are not on the right path with our stabilization measures.”

“We have also received great support for the second Greek
package…I expect that on Monday we will gain the necessary support in
the Bundestag,” Schaeuble said.

–Frankfurt newsroom +49 69 72 01 42; e-mail: jtreeck@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,MT$$$$,M$$EC,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$]

PARIS (MNI) – Europe can return to normal economic growth in a few
years if appropriate reforms are implemented, according to ECB Governing
Council member Christian Noyer.

“I think that if we take good measures, in two or three years we
can return to previous growth rates…but not without effort,” Noyer
said in a panel discussion broadcast over the weekend by the French
Senate network. There are “many things to change,” he stressed.

The governor of the Bank of France cited the need for “fairly
fundamental” economic and social reforms in France, notably in the way
social programs are financed.

Rather than payroll taxes, which undermine the competitiveness of
domestic producers by increasing labour costs, social protection could
be financed by taxing consumption – as proposed by President Nicolas
Sarkozy – or by taxing revenues, Noyer suggested.

“If we make all the necessary reforms,” annual French GDP growth
could return to its potential of 2-3% in two or three years, he said,
but cautioned that this could no longer be growth fueled by debt.

While confessing some impatience with the pace of reforms in
Europe, the central banker reminded that the rapid reaction of EU
leaders at the outset of the financial crisis demonstrated that even the
complex system of governance in Europe is capable of producing results.

With the unlimited medium-term liquidity the ECB has provided to
Eurozone banks over the past three year, thanks to its “infinite”
monetary resources, an important “psychological threshold” in the
financial markets has now been surmounted, Noyer estimated.

The Eurozone is in the process of implementing the “collective
discipline” in fiscal policy necessary to overcome the crisis, he
indicated, noting that this still leaves national governments leeway to
determine policy, provided they respect deficit limits.

[TOPICS: M$F$$$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$]

– See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Combined investment in equipment (including software)
by non-financial firms in Japan is expected to have shrunk 6.4% on year
in October-December, posting the third straight quarterly y/y fall after
-9.8% in Q3, -7.8% in Q2 and +3.0% in Q1, according to the median
forecast of economists surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Finance will release the data as part of its
quarterly business survey at 0850 JST on Thursday, Mar. 1 (2350 GMT
Wednesday).

The Cabinet Office will release revised Q4 GDP data on Thursday,
Mar. 8, after taking into account the demand side of capex and
private-sector inventory changes based on the MOF survey.

In the preliminary data released on Feb. 13, GDP fell a real 0.6%
q/q (annualized -2.3%) in the final quarter of 2011 while capex rose
1.9% q/q (annualized +7.9%).

Mari Iwashita, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, forecast
Q4 capex will show a 6.4% y/y fall in the MOF data, which means that
capital investment in revised GDP would show no change from the
preliminary reading.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Q4 capital spending (excluding
software) in the MOF data is forecast by economists to have risen 2.7%
from the previous quarter, posting the first gain in five quarters after
-2.7% q/q in Q3 and -6.3% in Q2.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]