A thought occurred to me, while reading this fascinating article by Christopher Caldwell on the German attitude toward the serial bailouts.  Germany has been cast in the role typically assumed by the US. The US typically plays the role of evil overload that swoops into clean up the mess made by the others. I’m thinking [...]

According to Dow Jones, the Greek austerity vote will be on Sunday with a cabinet reshuffle afterwards. Papademos will address the nation on Saturday. No word on the Monday PSI “deadline”.

The euro is jumping back to 1.3190 in an illiquid market. That’s an over-reaction, this was expected.

Five Greek ministers resign due to austerity Greek cabinet meeting continues Greek cabinet shuffle to take place Monday, vote Sunday or Monday Papademos says he will turf coalition members who don’t vote for austerity U Mich consumer sentiment 72.5 vs 74.8 exp Bernanke: Fed has substantial interest in mortgage lending Pianalto: housing a “significant headwind” [...]

The U.S. House passed a bill aimed to prohibit insider trading by members of Congress.    The bill bars members of Congress, their staff and some executive branch employees from trading stocks, commodities or futures based on non-public information they learn on the job.   The legislation requires lawmakers to disclose all their mortgages, ending an exemption [...]

No major moves in the market this week but a long EUR/JPY was the best trade, gaining more than 200 pips. The gains in the yen today wiped out what would have been a larger move.

The Commitments of Traders report was just released, the data covers through the end of Tuesday: EUR -140.6K vs -157.5K last week JPY +56K vs +55K GBP -33K vs -26K AUD +78K vs +75K CAD +2K vs -19K NZD +23K vs 15K Net USD position +32.8K vs 38.8K prior Some interesting developments. GBP shorts expanded even with [...]

By Brai Odion-Esene WASHINGTON (MNI) – The Federal Reserve is “extremely” focused on restoring the credit markets to a healthy state, as the continued reluctance of banks to make more credit available impedes the recovery in the housing market and the wider economy. “It’s certainly the case that tight credit remains a problem,” Bernanke said [...]

A three-hour meeting before a critical vote with the Prime Minister threatening to throw everyone out of government doesn’t exactly send a great message as trading winds down.

Risk aversion rising with the S&P 500 down 13.5 points to 1338. It would be the largest one-day fall of the year.

Portugal added 1-year bills to the scheduled 3 and -6-month bills on Wednesday due to “specific demand from investors”. Spain also just announced it will sell 3-year notes on Thursday. Spanish 3s are yielding 3.3% compared to sub-3% last week. Meanwhile, yields on the Portuguese bills due in Dec 2012 are at 4.8%. Interestingly, notes due [...]

–President Obama To Unveil FY’13 Budget Monday –Treasury Secretary Geithner To Testify To Hill’s Budget, Tax Panels –Wall Street Journal: Obama’s Budget To Show $1.3T Deficit For FY’12 By John Shaw WASHINGTON (MNI) – President Obama will unveil his fiscal year 2013 budget on Monday and that budget is likely to dominate the fiscal debate [...]

The market had been working on the assumption that the full Greek parliamentary vote would by on Sunday but reports are circulating that it will take place Monday. Reuters and the Greek press are now both saying “Sunday or Monday”. Heading into the weekend, it’s an important differentiation. Will the market be open or closed [...]

Greece is planning to retroactively put a collective action clause in bonds. A move that would mean all bondholders would be forced to follow a vote by a super-majority. This was expected and Greek bond ratings have no impact at this point.

US DATA: Jan Tsy budget -$27.4b vs -$49.8b in Jan’11. About $18b of the improvement was due to timing issues (benefits were moved into Dec in both yrs), while the rest reflects receipts rising about +3% YOY. Jan’12 includes a $10b student loan subsidy. The FYTD12 budget is -$349.1b vs -$418.8b in FYTD11, an improvement [...]

By Steven K. Beckner (MNI) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Friday said lenders are undercutting the Fed’s efforts to spur faster economic growth by maintaining “tight” mortgage credit conditions and declining to make loans even to “creditworthy” people. Bernanke did not say what, if any, further monetary policy stimulus measures the Fed might undertake, [...]

1.3155 is the daily low but bids extend below. Stops begin to mount below 1.3140.

A $27.4B shortfall in January compared to -$34B expected and -$49.B last January. More here

I mocked a promise from Greece to post a 4.5% budget surplus this year. Turns out it was an error and they meant to say, or write,  2015. There has been an official correction.

Reuters cites an “official” The plan is for the deficit to fall to $901B in 2013, or 5.5% of GDP