HELSINKI (MNI) – The European Central Bank’s injection of E1
trillion in three-year cash at a record low 1% has had a “decisive
impact” on developments in financial markets, but a genuine solution to
the Eurozone debt crisis will require steadfast implementation of fiscal
and structural reforms by political leaders, ECB Governing Council
member Erkki Liikanen said Thursday.

“Slippages in the implementation of political decisions in the
current fragile economic and market situation would be dangerous and
costly,” Liikanen said in a statement accompanying the release of the
Bank of Finland’s quarterly bulletin.

“Central bank measures can be used to calm the financial markets,
but a permanent solution to the debt crisis will require both successful
fiscal and structural policies and a controlled and timely exit from the
temporary central bank measures,” said Liikanen, who heads the Finnish
central bank.

In its bulletin, the central bank noted that the 3-year ECB
operations – one on December 21 and the other February 29 — had “calmed
the worst fears of the markets and began to narrow risk premia that had
recently grown very large.”

The bank also said that the ECB policy measures introduced last
December — which included the 3-year operations, a reduction in the key
policy interest rate, and a loosening of collateral rules to allow
greater access of financial institutions to the long-term refis — “were
necessary in order to break the negative spiral and restore confidence.”

The Bank of Finland projected that global growth this year would be
“very sluggish” at “just over 3%,” and noted that risks even to that
somewhat downbeat forecast were “predominantly on the downside.”

It added: “The most significant positive risk relates to the
forecast trend in the U.S. economy. Better-than-expected growth in U.S.
demand would bolster the entire global economy both directly and
indirectly.”

Liikanen reiterated the ECB’s new baseline scenario, that inflation
in the Eurozone would now stay above 2% through 2012. But in the
medium-term, inflation risks are balanced and inflation expectations
“firmly anchored,” he said.

–Paris bureau, +331-42-71-55-40; bwolfson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$EC$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,MT$$$$]

Reuter’s Insider TV

• There are clear signs of stabilisation in financial markets
• Hope that economic growth will accelerate in the course of the year
• No correlation between ECB 3-year loans and commodity prices
• Do not see any need for further ECB action immediately
• Asked about strife between ECB and Bundesbank, says is not true
• ECB has done what central bank can do, other players have to do their part

– Keeps Three-Month Libor Target Rates At 0.00-0.25%

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Swiss National Bank will continue to enforce
the minimum exchange rate of Sfr 1.20 per euro with the “utmost
determination” and to target a three-month Libor rate of 0.00-0.25% as
the economic outlooks brightens, the central bank said on Thursday.

The bank said “it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited
quantities” and “to take further measures at any time if the economic
outlook and the risk of deflation so require.”

“The target range for the three-month Libor will remain unchanged
at 0.00-0.25%. The SNB will continue to maintain liquidity on the money
market at an exceptionally high level,” it said in a statement.

The SNB reiterated that even at its current rate the Swiss franc is
still high.

At the same time, the SNB cut its inflation projection for this
year to -0.6% % from -0.3% forecast in December and to +0.3% from +0.4%
for 2013. The first inflation projection for 2014 sees consumer prices
rising by 0.6%.

The central bank had introduced the currency cap on September 6 to
counter deflationary pressures.

Recent data suggest that downward pressures might be receding.
Monthly consumer prices changes moved into positive territory in
February for the first time in five months. Pipeline pressures show
import and producer prices have begun rising and the recent rise in
global energy prices has yet to feed trough.

The SNB raised its 2012 GDP forecast of +0.5% to “around +1.0%”.
The Swiss economy is showing signs of recovery.

The Swiss government earlier on Thursday hiked its 2012 GDP
forecast to +0.8% from +0.5% and said the economy is likely to have
reached its trough. The Swiss ZEW economic expectations indicator
improved significantly in February for the third consecutive month, ZEW
said Wednesday.

MORE

–Frankfurt Bureau tel.: +49-69-720 142, email: jtreeck@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$$EC$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$$FX$]

No change in peg then,  shock horror!!

EUR/CHF slips below 1.2100, presently at 1.2090.

• Prepared to buy fx in unlimited quantities 

SNB 3-month libor band 0.0%-0.25%, unchanged and as expected

• Will keep money market liquidity extraordinarily high
• No risk of inflation in Switzerland
• SNB does not see inflation approaching 2% price stability threshold for entire forecast horizon
• Ready to take further measures at any time if the economic outlook, risk of deflation so require

• Australian dollar probably should be low 90′s versus the dollar

All of a sudden everybody’s a foreign exchange expert

More from the Premier

• Australian dollar will stay high as long as global jitters remain
• Plan to create sovereign wealth fund for Western Australia
• Would like to eventaully grow fund with about 2.5% from annual mining royalties
• Fund would initially invest in financial securities
• Would be ‘passive’, ‘conservative’ investor
• Proceeds from sovereign wealth fund would be invested into government services

At 08:30 GMT.

Strong consensus no change in policy will be the outcome.

Rumours circulating yesterday of a change in the 1.2000 peg seem to me to be just so much wishful thinking.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see them hike the darn thing. Then I could give numbnuts over the pond some serious earache 

EUR/CHF relatively steady at 1.2115.

on an annual basis, compared to -7.4% in Q3.

CRIKEY!!! things going from bad to worse  :(

Biggest fall since Q1 2007.

Bloomberg reporting.

That little pearl has helped slow sell-off in USD/JPY.  We’re at 83.68 from session low 83.52 in hectic choppy trade.

Nakao update:

• Still think dollar is attractive asset
• Euro woes show importance of strong public finances
• Must improve fiscal state while JGB market is stable

Talk is the early sell-off in the pairing was helped in no small part by a US investment house offloading on behalf of a hedge fund.

• Careful economic policy management needed in view of risks from Europe sovereign debt crisis
• Sees nothing strange in underlying currency moves
• Will continue to monitor market moves with sense of urgency and will respond appropriately
• Need to be fully aware that one-sided yen rise could resume due to market speculation
• In close contact with currency authorities in other countries on forex

Benchmark 10 year treasury yield has continued to correct lower, presently at 2.3028, putting pressure on USD/JPY which trades at sesssion low 83.53.

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Eurozone new car registrations in February were
11.8% below the previous-year level, the fifth-straight month of annual
declines after -10.0% in January, the Association of European Automobile
Builders (ACEA) reported on Thursday.

With Eurozone unemployment at a multi-year high of 10.7% in
January, jobless fears in February at their worst level in almost two
years, and consumers’ purchasing power hampered by higher energy and
taxes, households are unlikely to make many big-ticket buys in the near
term.

New car registrations in Germany came to 224,318 in February,
practically unchanged from the level one year ago. The resilient labour
market and high expectations for the upcoming wage negotiations continue
to support consumers’ willingness to spend. Households’ propensity to
buy has also been bolstered by the ongoing debt crisis, the GfK research
group said last month.

“Consumers’ confidence in the stability of their currency and the
financial markets has noticeably fallen in the wake of the debt crisis,”
the market research group noted. “As a result, consumers are currently
more likely to make high-value purchases rather than put their financial
resources in the bank at historically low interest rates.”

In France, registrations fell 20.2% on the year in February to
163,010. Consumers’ intention to buy a car this year has eroded
markedly, approaching the near-record lows in the first half of last
year, according to a European Commission survey.

For the full year, the French car makers group CCFA expects
registrations to decline by some 10% to around two million, roughly in
line with the average over the past decade, spokesman Francois Roudier
said last month. Figures for the first half are likely to be “very bad,”
but the launch of new models should support a gradual recovery over the
course of the year, he predicted.

In Italy, 130,661 new cars were registered in February, 18.9% fewer
than in February 2011. An ISTAT survey showed jobless fears falling back
in February after hitting a near three-year high in January, helping to
lift overall consumer morale. But households said their financial
situation had deteriorated and were less willing to spend.

Spanish new car registrations came to 64,732, down 2.1% from a year
ago. A national unemployment rate at euro-era high of 23.3% and
uncertainty regarding near-term economic prospects do not bode well for
an early pick-up in discretionary spending. Supporting this assessment,
retail sales fell for the 19th consecutive month in February, with
declines across the sector.

Outside of the largest Eurozone economies, the steepest annual
declines were in Portugal (-48.4%), Greece (-45.2%) and Slovenia
(-22.4%). Conversely, Estonia (+29.7%) led the way in gains. Figures for
Malta were unavailable.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]

EMU DATA: New car registrations in the Eurozone (excluding Malta) were
down 11.8% on the year in February, the Association of European
Automobile Builders (ACEA) reported on Thursday.
– ACEA: EU-15 February new car registrations -10.7% y/y
– ACEA: EU-15 +EFTA February new car registrations -10.2% y/y
– ACEA: February car regs Germany unch y/y; France -20.2%; UK -2.5%
– ACEA: February car regs Italy -18.9% y/y; Spain -2.1% y/y
– See MNI MainWire for details

• Sees 2012 growth at +0.8% from previous forecast of +0.5%
• Sees 2012 inflation at -0.4% from previous forecast of -0.3%
• Sees 2013 growth at +1.8% from previous forecast of +1.9%
• Sees 2013 inflation at +0.4% from previous forecast of +0.3%

Financial bookies see FTSE up around +0.1% (we’ll call that flat), DAX up as much as +0.4% and CAC 40 up as much as +0.2%.

Where barrier option interest is presumed. 

I have to say the continued rise in US treasury yields is rather impressive.  The 10 year yield is presently up at 2.3405 from the 2.2720 I jotted down last night just before I headed off to the land of Nod.  At the moment, in my opinion, that’s the single most important factor driving forex markets.

So watch those US treasury yields like a hawk pumpkins We’re all back to being fixed income traders (whoopee)

Yesterday I mentioned sell orders clustered up at 1.3090/00 and they duly capped the single currency rallies. No need to thank me too prefusely.  I guess there’ll still be decent interest up there, but will have to get confimation as the morning progresses.

Will I get to put up a “pop goes the weasel headline” this morning? 

Will Joe and the other two musketeers get to see their 1.3000 target reached?

Let’s hope so. I’d certainly like to see Joe’s run continue, bless his little cotton socks.

It’s all so very exciting I can hardly contain myself

UPDATE: Just in the course of writing this little ditty, the 10 year treasury yield has slipped back  below 2.3300, EUR/USD firmer.

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em.

• New Zealand consumer confidence fell to 110.3 from 113.8
• NZ job ads rose by 5.3% MoM
• Business NZ PMI rose to 57.7 from 50.8
• RBA’s latest quarterly bulletin
• Nikkei +0.6% on continued Yen weakness; other regional bourses slightly lower
• Gold +0.3% after 2% fall overnight; Oil at $105.80/bbl

Only the Yen crosses showed any inclination to move today and once again the only way was up.

USD/JPY opened near 83.70 but once again edged slowly higher through the session, taking out a small barrier at 84.00 on its way to a session high at 84.17. There has been no pullback since then with quiet consolidation near 84.10. Range: 83.64/84.17

EUR/USD has again played second fiddle to EUR/JPY, trading in a 30 pip range on the whims of cross flows. 1.3002/39

AUD/USD opened near 1.0450 and fell initially as dealers tried to tap into the bearish momentum from overnight, but AUD/JPY buying eventually took over and the Aussie will end the session near its intraday highs. Range: 1.0419/67

Cable 1.5634/71; EUR/CHF 1.2120/40

As you’ve no doubt already read, one ex-Goldman executive had a big swing at them in the NY Times.

The Borowitz report has some ideas on how Goldies might respond.

In related news, Darth Vader has had enough and is leaving his empire as well.

The previous high two weeks ago was almost exactly 88.00 according to my charts and now we are stalling at exactly the same level, so there must be something magnetic here? Gold has made a small recovery (as usual) in Asia and this may be helping Aussie sentiment as there’s traditionally a good intraday correlation between the two.

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the RealtyTrac
February report on U.S. foreclosure activity, published Thursday:

RealtyTrac (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for
foreclosure properties, today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market
Report for February 2012, which shows foreclosure filings – default
notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions – were reported on
206,900 U.S. properties in February. That was a 2 percent decrease from
the previous month and was down 8 percent from February 2011 – the
lowest annual decrease since October 2010. The report also shows one in
every 637 U.S. housing units with a foreclosure filing during the month.

“February’s numbers point to a gradually rising foreclosure tide as
some of the barriers that have been holding back foreclosures are
removed,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Although national
foreclosure activity was pushed lower by decreases in a handful of
larger states, 21 states posted annual increases in foreclosure
activity, the most states with annual increases since November 2010.

“The foreclosure and mortgage settlement filed in court earlier
this week will help pave the way to a properly functioning foreclosure
process by providing a clear roadmap for necessary foreclosures,” Moore
continued. “That should result in more states posting annual increases
in the coming months. Not surprisingly, many of the biggest annual
increases in February were in states with the more bureaucratic judicial
foreclosure process, which resulted in a larger backlog of foreclosures
built up over the last 18 months in those states.”

February foreclosure activity in the 26 states with a judicial
foreclosure process increased 2 percent from January and was up 24
percent from February 2011, while activity in the 24 states with a
non-judicial foreclosure process decreased 5 percent from January and
was down 23 percent from February 2011.

Half of largest metro areas post annual increases in foreclosure
activity

Ten of the nation’s 20 largest metro areas by population documented
year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in February, led by the
Florida cities of Tampa (64 percent increase) and Miami (53 percent
increase).

The 10 metro areas with increases were all on the East Coast or in
the Midwest, while most of the metro areas with year-over-year decreases
in foreclosure activity were in the West, led by Seattle (59 percent
decrease) and Phoenix (43 percent decrease).

The metro areas with the highest foreclosure rates among the 20
largest were Riverside-San Bernardino in California (one in 166 housing
units), Atlanta (one in 244), Phoenix (one in 259), Miami (one in 264)
and Chicago (one in 302).

Foreclosure activity by type

Default notices (NOD, LIS) were filed for the first time on a total
of 58,886 U.S. properties in February, up 1 percent from the previous
month but still down 7 percent from February 2011.

Default notices increased at least 20 percent on a year-over-year
basis in a dozen states, all states primarily employing a judicial or
quasi-judicial foreclosure process. Those states included Hawaii (321
percent increase), Maryland (157 percent increase), Connecticut (64
percent increase), South Carolina (58 percent increase), Indiana (37
percent increase), Pennsylvania (35 percent increase), Florida (33
percent increase), and Massachusetts (20 percent increase).

Default notices were still down on a year-over-year basis in
several states, including Nevada (89 percent decrease), Michigan (72
percent decrease), New York (44 percent decrease), Iowa (28 percent
decrease), Kentucky (25 percent decrease), and California (11 percent
decrease). State legislation impacted the default numbers in Nevada,
where a law requiring lenders to file an extra affidavit before
initiating the foreclosure process took effect in October 2011, and in
Michigan, where a 2009 law that required notices of default to be
publicly recorded recently expired. In addition, state attorneys general
in New York, California and Nevada have filed lawsuits against major
lenders in recent months.

Foreclosure auctions (NTS, NFS) were scheduled for the first time
on 84,180 U.S. properties in February, down 2 percent from January and
down 13 percent from February 2011.

Scheduled auctions increased at least 25 percent on a
year-over-year basis in 13 states, including Kentucky (190 percent
increase), Illinois (170 percent increase), Iowa (98 percent increase),
Pennsylvania (95 percent increase), Indiana (92 percent increase),
Minnesota (88 percent increase), Maryland (66 percent increase), South
Carolina (27 percent increase), and Oklahoma (25 percent increase).

Lenders repossessed (REO) a total of 63,834 U.S. properties in
February, a 4 percent decrease from January and down 1 percent from
February 2011.

REO activity increased at least 20 percent on a year-over-year
basis in 17 states, including Massachusetts (114 percent increase),
North Carolina (95 percent increase), Florida (90 percent increase),
South Carolina (87 percent increase), Georgia (76 percent increase),
Connecticut (66 percent increase), New York (48 percent increase), and
Illinois (42 percent increase).

Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates

Foreclosure activity in Nevada reached a 58-month low in February,
but the state still posted the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate
for the 62nd straight month. One in every 278 Nevada housing units had a
foreclosure filing during the month, more than twice the national
average.

California posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure
rate in February although the state’s foreclosure activity hit a
51-month low. A total of 48,422 California properties had a foreclosure
filing during the month, one in every 283 housing units.

Arizona foreclosure activity increased on a monthly basis for the
second month in a row boosted by a 33 percent jump in scheduled
foreclosure auctions. One in every 312 Arizona housing units had a
foreclosure filing during the month, the nation’s third highest state
foreclosure rate.

One in every 331 Georgia housing units had a foreclosure filing in
February, the nation’s fourth highest state foreclosure rate, and one in
every 341 Florida housing units had a foreclosure filing during the
month, the nation’s fifth highest state foreclosure rate. Florida
default notices increased on a year-over-year basis for the fourth
straight month in February, and overall Florida foreclosure activity was
up on an annual basis for the second straight month.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 were
Illinois (one in 398 housing units), Michigan (one in 433), South
Carolina (one in 489), Ohio (one in 543) and Wisconsin (one in 596).

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$$AG$,M$U$$$]

US DATA: RealtyTrac says US foreclosure filings reported on 206,900
U.S. properties in Feb, -2% vs Jan and down 8.1% from a year ago — the
lowest annual decrease since October 2010. The report also shows one in
every 637 U.S. housing units with a foreclosure filing during the month.
‘February’s numbers point to a gradually rising foreclosure tide as
some of the barriers that have been holding back foreclosures are
removed,’ RealtyTrac says.