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Diposting oleh d3nfx Kamis, 22 Maret 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Talk BIS on the bid in EUR/USD

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:03 AM PDT

In recent trade.  We’re at 1.3160 from session low 1.3150.

Anemic bounce so far. This will be interesting.

Unfortunately I won’t be here to witness proceedings.  I’m outta here.

My colleague Joe is raring to go ;)

Euro zone March flash composite PMI 48.7

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:00 AM PDT

Down from 49.3 in Febraury and below Reuter’s median forecast of 49.7.

Well at least we knew it was coming.

Talk of decent EUR/USD bids on EBS

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:49 AM PDT

At 1.3150.

Will they hold the downside?

Buggered if I know, but they’re apparently there.  We’re presently at 1.3160.

Sell stops noted through 1.3140.

USD/JPY gives ground on risk-off backdrop

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:43 AM PDT

Down at 83.00 from around 83.35 when I arrived.

Benchmark 10 year US treasury yield off at 2.2656 from the 2.2870 I jotted down first thing.

Buy orders now seen clustered 82.80/90,  more sell stops below there.

Germany Govt Working Group Pondering Firewall Increase: Press

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:30 AM PDT

BERLIN (MNI) – The German government has set up a working group
that is looking into ways how to increase the size of the European
firewall against a spread of the debt crisis, the German daily Die Welt
reported Thursday.

One of the discussed ideas is using structured financial products
to leverage the remaining funds in the European Financial Stability
Facility (EFSF), the temporary rescue fund, Die Welt said. However, the
paper cited a source as saying that nothing has been decided yet.

A senior lawmaker from German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s
CDU/CSU-FDP coalition said Wednesday that it would be better to let the
EFSF and the permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism,
operate alongside each other for a while than to increase the volume of
the ESM permanently above E500 billion.

“This would make more sense than an increase of the ESM,” said
Norbert Barthle, the CDU/CSU’s parliamentary budget speaker.

The German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported Wednesday that the
German government now thought it was conceivable that the EFSF and the
ESM could operate next to each other for a year. Under this scenario,
Germany’s share in the firewall would temporarily rise to E280 billion
from E211 billion.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,MFX$$$]

German March flash manufacturing PMI 48.1

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:29 AM PDT

Again demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 51.0.

Services PMI 51.8, weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 53.0.

EUR/USD extends sell off on the data, presently at 1.3175.

Buba chief: German budget plans unambitious

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:17 AM PDT

Jens Weidmann, in an interview in the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, opines that the government’s budget plans for 2013-2016 lack ambition and could have made faster headway in reducing deficit.

Merkel’s cabinet yesterday approved plans that aim for a balanced budget in 2016.

Weidmann says in the interview “It is not exactly ambitious for the federal structural deficit to grow this year and for the government to want to balance its’ budget only in 2016.”

Japan 2012 Land Price Posts 4th Straight Drop But Pace Slower

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:10 AM PDT

By Shigeo Kodama

TOKYO (MNI) – The average national price of land for all purposes
measured at the start of 2012 fell 2.6%, a fourth annual drop, amid
uncertainty caused by the European debt crisis, the strong yen and the
aftermath of the earthquake disaster, the government said on Thursday.

But the pace of decline in the average land price for 2012
decelerated from -3.0% in 2011 and -4.6% in 2010, data from the Ministry
of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism showed.

Of the 25,494 locations surveyed this year, 546 spots showed land
prices rose on the year, up from 193 last year, while price drops were
seen in 23,099 spots, down from 24,232 in 2011. Land prices were
unchanged in 1,849 locations.

The March 11 disaster last year had a negative impact on trading in
real estate and its prices but it faded later in the year, a ministry
official told reporters.

The national average price of land for all purposes fell 1.3% on
year in the first six months of last year before falling 0.9% in the
second half of 2011, the survey showed.

The largest price drop in the 2012 survey, down 18.3%, was recorded
in Ishinomaki, a northeastern coastal city in Miyagi Prefecture, where
more than 20,000 buildings were wiped out by the earthquake and tsunami
and over 10,000 were seriously damaged.

The disaster left more than 19,000 dead for missing in Japan caused
the worst nuclear accident in 25 years.

In the latest survey, the ministry was unable to survey 17 spots
which were located in a nuclear exclusion zone along the Pacific Coast
in Fukushima Prefecture.

The pace of declines in land prices for both residential and
commercial use decelerated, thanks to an improvement in demand for real
estate, the survey showed.

The national average price of land for residential use fell only
2.3% on year as of Jan. 1, compared with -2.7% in 2011. It was a fourth
straight annual decline.

Demand for land improved in some big cities such as Tokyo and
Nagoya, thanks to low mortgage rates and government subsidies for
building energy-efficient homes, the ministry official said.

The ratio of new condominiums in Tokyo and surrounding cities on
which purchase contracts have been signed compared to the total supply
of new condominiums in this area stood at 75.3% in February, staying
above the key 70% level for six months in a row, according to the Real
Estate Economic Institute.

Meanwhile, the national average price of land for commercial use
fell 3.1% at the start of this year, down for the fourth straight year,
but the pace of decline decelerated from -3.8% in 2011.

Land prices in some redeveloped business districts rose and
declines in office rents in central parts of some big cities slowed, the
ministry official said.

The average office rent per 3.3 square meters in central Tokyo
wards fell only 3.6% on year in January, compared with a 7.2% y/y drop
seen a year earlier, data from the real-state firm Miki Shoji showed.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

French March flash manufacturing PMI 47.6

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 01:03 AM PDT

Demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 50.3.

EUR/USD slips to 1.3217 on poor data.

Services PMI 50.0, weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 50.6.

Bundesbank: Not pushing ECB to wind up covered bond purchases

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 12:44 AM PDT

Yer right!!

  • ECB is to decide whenever appropriate to end covered bond buys

EUR/USD sits at 1.3240, to the pip where is was when I parked my bum about 24 hours ago.  Ok I’m exaggerating…..just feels like 24 hours :(

David Blanchflower: The Office of Budget Responsibility’s credibility is in tatters

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 12:35 AM PDT

‘Chancellor is fiddling at the edges as the economy flatlines’

Oh how I miss Danny :(  

Can’t we bring him back as the Governor of the Old Lady?

Good news!!!

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 12:25 AM PDT

I’ve got a half day today and will be taking my leave around 09:30 GMT.

And more good news, I’ll be repeating schedule tomorrow.

Spring has sprung and the old boy is off to stretch his legs.

Not to worry though, I’ll leave you in the more than capable hands of Joe “The Guru” Brown. 

Ummmm, I wonder if we can still call him “The Guru” after he cocked up the last poll?

Germany may seek to run euro rescue funds in parallel – Die Welt says

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 12:13 AM PDT

Bloomberg headline.

Germany may let euro area’s temporary and permanent rescue funds run alongside each other according to the paper.

I think we already knew this.

German government apparently working on proposal that may call for leveraging, with structured financial products, the 240 bln in the EFSF.

I don’t know whether we already knew this bit.  My memory’s not what it used to be ;)

Swiss February trade balance +2677 mln vs revised +1496 mln in January

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 12:01 AM PDT

Watch exports up 19.7% in February year on year in nominal terms.

That’ll have them yodelling in the Cantons…….

European stocks seen opening fractionally lower

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:42 PM PDT

Financial bookies see FTSE down around -0.1%, DAX down around -0.2% and CAC 40 down around -0.1%.

Japan Feb Supermkt Sales 1st Rise In 7 Mo on Leap-Yr Effects

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:30 PM PDT

– Japan Feb Supermarket Sales +0.3% Y/Y Vs Jan -1.2%

TOKYO (MNI) – Sales at supermarkets in Japan open for at least a
year rose 0.3% in February from a year earlier to Y967.9 billion,
posting the first y/y gain in seven months, an industry group said
Thursday.

The organization said the leap-year effects as well as solid winter
clothing demand amid low temperatures led to a rise in overall sales.

The latest figures are based on the combined sales at 60
supermarket chains which together operate 7,853 outlets. The numbers
have been adjusted to facilitate comparison on a same-store basis.

Including sales at stores newly opened during the past year,
revenue rose 4.6%, with the pace of growth accelerating from +3.5% in
January.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

Portugal braces for general strike – WSJ

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:28 PM PDT

BOJ’s Morimoto: Must continue to watch European situation

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:16 PM PDT

  • Japanese economy on moderate recovery path
  • Power suppply situation may pose risk
  • Failure to restart reactors may hurt economy

Bloomberg reporting.

BOJ Gov Shirakawa: Japan’s sustainable inflation level may rise if potential growth boosted

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:07 PM PDT

  • 1% inflation goal reflects Japan’s consistently lower price growth that US, Europe
  • Will continue to do utmost to beat deflation
  • Targeting inflation levels that deviate from public views would have adverse effect on economy
  • Concerned Volker rule will sap JGB liquidity

Reuters reporting.

It’s a funny old world.  I left yesterday with China selling USD/JPY above 84.00 and here we are down at 83.35 having been as low as 83.12.  Who wud have thunk it?

JAPAN DATA: The Bank of Japan says its February real.

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 11:00 PM PDT

JAPAN DATA: The Bank of Japan says its February real export index
rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% m/m to 116.7 (100 for the 2005 base
year) after no change in January and +1.1% in December. The February
reading was the highest since 118.2 in October 2011. Meanwhile, the
BOJ’s real import index dropped a seasonally adjusted 8.6% in February,
posting the first m/m fall in two months, after +6.1% in January. The
February import index of 101.7 was the lowest since 101.2 in April 2011.
The BOJ calculated the indexes based on the unadjusted February trade
data released by the Ministry of Finance earlier today, which showed
-2.7% y/y in exports and +9.2% in imports. The BOJ export index hit a
recent bottom of 77.6 in February 2009 following the collapse of Lehman
Brothers in September 2008.

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