EUR/GBP down at .8305 from around .8325 when I sat down.  Talk is a major Swiss name (in fact THE major Swiss name) has been notable seller of the cross this morning. 

The cross selling will have weighed on EUR/USD which is down at 1.3060 having been as low as 1.3052. 

Trouble with this market is it’s all top start, with no real new news for players to focus on.

We sit at 87.90.

2012 high 88.05.

Talk of buy stops gathering up at 88.10/15.

Right, back to The Morning Line……

In EUR/USD, 1.3050 or 1.3100?

I’m just joshng with ya

UPDATE: Right only one thing for it.  I’m off for 50 mins to watch The Morning Line. Maybe if I turn my back things will start moving.  EUR/USD sits at 1.3077 in truly comatose trade.  Fingers crossed this works.

In recent trade. We’re at 1.3082. So I guess they were in circa 1.3075.

Last time I had reports of them buying it was at higher levels than this, so they’re not invincible that’s for sure despite their good run since the turn of the year.

Financial bookies see FTSE opening flat, DAX up around +0.1% (flat) and CAC 40 flat.

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due next week provided by economists surveyed by MNI.

Thursday, Mar. 22, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Finance releases February trade data. Forecast: A deficit of Y125.0
billion, compared to a Y650.3 billion surplus in February 2011 and a
Y1.477 trillion deficit in January 2012. It would be a fifth straight
monthly shortfall.

Economists expect the trade balance in February to have improved to
a deficit worth Y125.0 billion from a record deficit of Y1.477 trillion
hit in January, which was caused by seasonal factors.

In January, the export slump caused by the global slowdown and the
relatively strong yen was aggravated by the Lunar New Year holidays.

Brighter signs are emerging in the global economy and the yen has
fallen from record highs but economists expect Japanese exports to show
year-on-year drops and oil and gas imports for power generation to
remain high in coming months, thus leading to a trade deficit.

They forecast exports fell 6.5% on year in February after -9.3% in
January and imports rose 8.4%, compared with +9.9% in January.

If the median forecast for the trade deficit is met, the current
account balance for the month, due out on Apr. 9, is expected to show a
surplus, reversing a record deficit of Y437.3 billion marked in January.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em.

– Japan Jan Leading Index Unrevised +1.1 Pt M/M

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s coincident composite index (CI), which
reflects current business conditions, fell a revised 0.3 point to 92.7
(preliminary -0.5 point, 93.1) in January, following a sharp rise
in the previous month, Cabinet Office data showed on Friday.

As seen in preliminary data, the coincident CI posted the first
fall in two months after a revised 2.9 point surge in December.

In January, five out of the 11 sub-indexes comprising the
coincident index fell. They included shipments of industrial goods
and those of capital goods.

The composite index was set at 100 in the 2005 base year.

Other details from the latest data follow:

The leading composite index, which measures the state of the
economy three months ahead: Jan revised 94.4 (+1.1 points m/m) vs.
preliminary 94.9 (+1.1 point), posting a third straight rise.

The lagging CI, which reflects economic conditions three months
ago: Jan revised 83.8 (-2.5 point m/m) vs. preliminary 81.1 (-2.8
point), marking the first fall in three months.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

• China seen adding to US Treasuries holdings
• PBOC sets Yuan mid-point at 6.3200
• BOJ February minutes: Some mention of raising inflation goal
• Geithner: Strenuously against near term reduction in deficit spending
• Fed’s Lacker: Thinks interest rate rises will happen in 2013
• Regional bourses stay very flat
• Gold $1663/oz; Oil $105.50/bbl

USD/JPY has tried to move a few times but has been stuck in a 40 pip range. The overnight drop has convinced many bulls to book at least some interim profits but the Asian market was unable to break below the NY lows at 83.25, a sign of the continuing strength in this pair. Trailing stops are noted below 83.00. Ranges: 83.23/62

EUR/USD has edged higher in quiet trade with mildly softer USD sentiment and continued EUR/JPY support helping out. Flows were light and the next batch of sell orders are reportedly at 1.3120/25. Ranges: 1.3065/99

AUD/USD has consolidated yesterday’s gains and finishes the session unchanged. AUD/JPY continues to struggle in its attempts to break above 88.00. Ranges: 1.0505/50.

Cable 1.5691/1.5724; EUR/CHF 1.2067/81

BEIJING (MNI) – It is unlikely that “exceptionally low” Federal
Reserve interest rates will be warranted until at least late 2014, as
the Federal Open Market Committee restated after its March 13 policy
meeting, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said
early Friday morning.

Rather, the federal funds rate will likely need to rise “sometime
in 2013,” Lacker said in a statement released on the Richmond Fed
website.

Lacker, a voting FOMC member, was the lone dissenter from the March
13 policy statement.

“I dissented because I do not believe economic conditions are
likely to warrant an exceptionally low federal funds rate for this
length of time,” Lacker said of the late 2014 timeframe.

“The economy is expanding at a moderate pace, and inflation is
close to the Committee’s 2 percent objective. As the expansion
continues, the federal funds rate will need to rise in order to prevent
the emergence of inflationary pressures.”

“The forward guidance is intended to represent our best forecast of
the appropriate timing of changes in the Federal Funds rate, and my
current assessment is that an increase in interest rates is likely to be
necessary some time in 2013,” he said.

beijing@marketnews.com
** MNI Beijing Newsroom +86-10 5864 5241**

[TOPICS: MMUFE$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$]

• He dissented on FOMC decision as he doesn’t believe economy needed low rates for so long

(Reuetrs newswires)

USD/JPY has gotten a mild boost off its session lows and is now mid-range at 83.45.

For the first time in 6 months, China added to it’s already huge holdings of US Treasuries; more from Bloomberg.

Most of the major regional bourses are flat to slightly lower with only the Shanghai market showing small gains of 0.3%. Gold is slightly higher in Asia, no surprise there, at $1664/oz and Oil is at $105.50/bbl.

All of the majors are still hanging around fairly close to their opening levels although USD/JPY is edging lower and there are stops below 83.00. I’m popping out for a short while but I’m fairly sure I’ll miss nothing, back shortly.

These players seldom if ever show up during the Asian session but they can be exceedingly busy during European trade. We often read reports from Gerry and Joe about the big stoushs that take place betweem them and The Russian, and its usually fun to watch.

I believe that the ME Sovereigns are net buyers of cable at present and they are buying heaps on any big dips towards 1.5600 but then are also offloading some of these purchases on rallies back above 1.5700. That’s the advantage of having a big book, it makes trading easy sometimes.

That’s quite a bit lower than the previous Fix and is somewhat surprising, given that the market is expecting the mid-point to be raised ahead of a band-widening sometime soon?

The bulls, and there are plenty of them, were happy yesterday when EUR/CHF got back up to 1.2130 and they were no doubt dreaming of a big payday but any market that is sitting long to such an extent, will struggle to maintain those gains for any length of time. Nevertheless, the SNB is still expected to be on the bid at 1.2025, at the latest, and they may even show up a bit sooner than that. Real money offers near 1.2150 continue to provide the topside cap. The stop-loss sell orders below 1.1995 are said to exceed EUR25 billion.

– BOJ Feb Minutes: One Member Said Should Adopt 2% Inflation Goal
– BOJ Minutes: Many Members: Term ‘Understanding’ May Sound Passive
– BOJ: Some Members: Should Consider Refining Pro-Growth Loans

TOKYO (MNI) – A few members of the Bank of Japan’s board suggested
that one option for the BOJ was to set its new longer-term inflation
goal in a range of 1% to 2%, instead of pinpointing 1%, the minutes of
the BOJ’s Feb. 13-14 policy meeting released on Friday showed.

One argued that the BOJ should follow the norm among other major
central banks and set its price stability target at an annual CPI rise
of 2% while some said there was no need to substantially change what the
BOJ had been aiming at — “a positive range of 2% or lower, centering
around 1%.”

At its February meeting, the BOJ board decided to adopt a more
explicit 1% inflation “goal” and boost its already large-scale
unconventional financial asset buying program in support of that goal.
It also decided to maintain its practically zero interest rate policy.

Some members said it was appropriate “for the time being” to aim to
achieve an inflation rate of 1%, given that the current level of
inflation perceived by the public is relatively low.

“These members continued, however, that the bank could take this
opportunity to change the numerical expression to one that took account
of the possibility that the inflation rate the bank should aim to
achieve could surpass 1% in the longer run,” the minutes said.

“A few of these members said that a numerical expression of 1% to
2% was one option,” they said.

“One member commented that, from a long-term perspective, the bank
should aim to achieve an inflation rate that many other major economies
commonly pursued — at present, 2% — so that the long-term trend of the
foreign exchange rate would not become one-sided.”

In response, a different member said that it was “not necessarily
essential for the bank to aim to achieve the same level of inflation” as
other major central banks, given that the economic situation facing
Japan differed from those faced by other major economies.

The minutes also indicated that the BOJ board looked closely at the
wording of its loose inflation goal adopted in March 2006, called the
board’s “understanding” of desirable price gains.

“Many members expressed the view that the connotation of the term
‘understanding’ that the bank had used thus far might suggest that the
bank was passively waiting for a recovery in the economic and price
situation, and thus did not effectively communicate the bank’s active
stance in its efforts to achieve price stability.”

Some members said the term “target” suggested that monetary policy
would be conducted “in an automatic manner” in response to short-term
fluctuations in prices, so as to maintain a certain level of inflation,
the minutes said.

They also pointed that terms “target” and “definition” had rigid
and inelastic connotations, and that therefore it would not be
appropriate to use these terms in a situation of a high degree of
uncertainty surrounding future developments such as structural changes
in Japan’s economy and movements in the global economic environment.

The same members also noted that the term “benchmark” would entail
some vagueness in terms of representing the BOJ’s policy stance, just
like the term “understanding.”

Based on this discussion, members agreed that it would be
appropriate to refer to the inflation rate that is consistent with
price stability sustainable over the medium to long term as “the price
stability goal in the medium to long term.”

Board members also discussed a possibility of extending and
expanding the BOJ’s growth-oriented lending programs.

The minutes said “many members noted that the deadline for
applications for new loans was March 31, 2012, and said that it was
imperative to examine in the near future whether it was necessary to
extend the deadline.”

“Some of these members, recognizing that strengthening growth
potential continued to be the major challenge for Japan’s economy,
expressed the view that it was appropriate to consider extending the
deadline, and in doing so, examine whether further refinement in the
formulation of the measure was possible.”

Later at its March 12-13 meeting, the board decided to extend the
programs and expand the total fund available through these pro-growth
lending facilities by Y2 trillion to Y5.5 trillion, adding new features.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MMJBJ$,MAJDS$,MT$$$$]

Bloomberg report on another resignation, although for slightly different reasons

• Trailing stop-loss sell orders now being reported below 83.00