ITALY DATA: January retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in SA nominal terms
on an increase in both food and non-food sales, posting the first
increase after two months of declines.
- In y/y terms, retails sales fell 0.8% after an annual decline of -3.7%
in December.
–The three month-moving average contracted 0.8% in the months from
November to January.
–Food sales rose 1.2% m/m and increased 0.1% y/y; non-food sales
advanced 0.5% m/m and contracted by 1.2% on the year.

• Economy better than he expected in Q1, more likely than not growth positive
• Economic data will “jump around” this year due to jubilee, olympics, more stable late this year

Guess that helps explain aforementioned sell orders at 1.3290/00.

Might even help explain the BIS selling recently up around these levels. Not heard their name so far today though.

– See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – The Bank of Japan’s Tankan quarterly survey gauging
business sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers will show a second
straight quarterly improvement in March, according to the median
forecast of economists surveyed by MNI.

The BOJ will release the outcome of its March Tankan survey at 0850
JST on Monday, Apr. 2 (2350 GMT Sunday).

The headline diffusion index (DI) is forecast to rise to -1 in
March from -4 in the previous survey in December. It would be the
highest level since +2 marked in September 2011.

The diffusion index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of
companies reporting deteriorating business conditions from the
percentage of those reporting an improvement. A positive figure
indicates the majority of firms see better business conditions.

Many economists said sentiment among manufacturers will show an
improvement in March, thanks to easing fears about the European debt
crisis, brighter prospects for a U.S. economic recovery, the recent
pullback in the yen’s strength and global stock market rallies.

Looking ahead, economists said the headline index will improve
further to +2 in June.

The Tankan’s major manufacturer index bottomed out at -58 in March
2009 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Economists expect the major non-manufacturers’ index to rise to +5
in March, the highest level since +10 in June 2008, from +4 in December,
rising for the third consecutive quarter on firmer domestic demand.

The index is expected to rise further to +6 in June.

The DI for small manufacturers is seen unchanged at -8 in March
while the sentiment index for small non-manufacturers is expected to
rise slightly to -13 in March from -14 in December.

The March Tankan is also forecast to show that capital investment
plans by major firms in fiscal 2012 will rise 1.0% from the previous
year.

This would be the most optimistic outlook in March surveys since
+2.9% for fiscal 2007 projected by firms in the March 2007 Tankan.

In the March 2012 Tankan, capex plans by small firms in fiscal 2012
are expected to show a 19.3% decline, compared with an estimated 24.5%
drop for fiscal 2011 seen in the March 2011 Tankan.

Small firms tend to revise up their capital investment plans
gradually as the fiscal year progresses.

The BOJ seems to have conducted its latest Tankan survey through
March 30, with 70% to 80% of surveyed firms responding by the BOJ’s
suggested date of March 12.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$,MT$$$$]

We’re up at 1.3270, buy stops through 1.3240 having been tripped.  We’re closing in on the area where BIS was last seen as seller ie circa 1.3275. Will be interesting to see whether they turn up again.

Talk of sell orders clustered 1.3290/00.

We’re

Adding to aforementioned reports of AUD/USD buy stops through 1.0430, now hearing stops through 1.0420 as well.

We’re at 1.0412.

UPDATE:  Stops gone through both 20 and 30 in double-quick time and we’re at 1.0438.

In recent trade.  We’re at 1.0405 from session high 1.0415. Buy stops remain through 1.0430.

From upwardly revised 93 in Febraury (prev 92), better than Reuter’s median forecast of 93.

FRANCE DATA: March mfg sentiment 96 vs February 93 (92)
– Above expected; MNI analysts survey median forecast 93
– Execs’ own-company outlook +6 vs February -1 (-2)
– Sector production outlook -15 vs February -27
– See MNI MainWire for details

The rumour is there’s gonna be an iminent Chinese RRR cut (again) Give me strength.  

Oh well it is Friday.

AUD/USD up at 1.0412 from around 1.0380 when I parked my bum.  Talk of buy stops through 1.0430.

We’re up at 1.3235 having been to 1.3238.

Being told Russian buying notable in this latest push higher.

If there’s fundamental news driving this move, then it’s escaping me.

EUR/USD sits at 1.3205 having closed out in North America Thursday around 1.3185. We continue to see generally slow trading in this pairing. Long periods of inactivity are being interspersed with short spasms of violent price activity.

One thing I know for sure;  there is no meaningful trend in this pair at the present time.

I left early yesterday with the BIS buying circa 1.3150, so can’t say I’m overly surprised we’re back up at present levels.

Sean mentioned some order levels overnight;  buy orders seen clustered down at 1.3130/40, sell stops through 1.3120. Sell orders clustered 1.3225/30, buy stops through 1.3240.

• Comparisons with Greece are “total nonsense”
• Spanish government fully committed to meeting deficit target
• Spain has leeway to reduce deficits of regional governments

JAPAN DATA: Friday, Mar. 30, 1400 JST (0500 GMT): The Ministry of
Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism releases February housing
starts. Forecast: -1.8% y/y, a fifth straight drop after -1.1% in
January. Shortages of labor and building materials in the construction
sector, caused by a reconstruction boom in the earthquake-hit
northeastern region, are hampering a recovery in home building.

JAPAN DATA: Friday, Mar. 30, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases February industrial
output. Forecast: +1.3% m/m, led by semiconductors as well as iron and
steel, showing a third straight monthly gain after +1.9% in January.

I thought I was the only person who did polls….

252 Japanese firms responded to the survey of 400 large companies.

Survey was taken March 1-16.

60% of respondents see yen trading at 76-80 per dollar during the first half of the new fiscal year starting in April

31% expect it to stay in an 81-85 range

The average rate of respondents was 80.6 for USD/JPY in April-September period.

As Reuters say;  ”it indicates scepticism yen weakening will last”

JAPAN DATA: Friday, Mar. 30, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases February CPI.
Forecast: National core CPI -0.1% y/y in February, staying in negative
territory for five months in a row, after -0.1% in both January and
December. Tokyo core CPI for March is expected to show -0.3% y/y after
-0.3% in February.

JAPAN DATA: Thursday, Mar. 29, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases February retail sales.
Forecast: +1.3% y/y in February, posting a third straight rise on the
year, but the increase is expected to have decelerated from a revised
+1.8% in January as low temperatures dampened demand for spring
clothing.

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

Economists expect industrial production, a coincident indicator for
the economy, to continue posing a solid month-to-month rise in February,
signalling the Japanese economy has been picking up steadily amid
brighter prospects for global growth.

But as the domestic economy remains mired in a mild deflation,
February CPI is forecast to show a small but fifth straight year-on-year
drop while the February unemployment rate is seen unchanged, with job
offers on a gradual uptrend.

Wages and job creation have shown only a slow improvement,
indicating that household spending will remain sluggish and retail sales
can be dented easily by weather conditions.

Thursday, Mar. 29, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases February retail sales. Forecast:
+1.3% y/y in February, posting a third straight rise on the year, but
the increase is expected to have decelerated from a revised +1.8% in
January as low temperatures dampened demand for spring clothing.

Friday, Mar. 30, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases February CPI. Forecast:
National core CPI -0.1% y/y in February, staying in negative territory
for five months in a row, after -0.1% in both January and December.
Tokyo core CPI for March is expected to show -0.3% y/y after -0.3% in
February.

Looking ahead, some economists surveyed said the core national CPI
will show year-on-year gains from the middle of this year, reflecting
soaring gasoline and heating oil prices.

Friday, Mar. 30, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the unemployment rate and
the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare releases the ratio of job
offers to job seekers, both for February. Forecast: Unemployment at
4.6%, unchanged from January. The job offer index at 0.74, up from 0.73
in January and staying at the highest level since 0.75 in November 2008.

Friday, Mar. 30, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases February household
spending. Forecast: -0.4% y/y in real terms, posting a second straight
drop but improving from -2.3% in January, thanks to leap-year effects.

Friday, Mar. 30, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases February industrial output.
Forecast: +1.3% m/m, led by semiconductors as well as iron and steel,
showing a third straight monthly gain after +1.9% in January.

Friday, Mar. 30, 1400 JST (0500 GMT): The Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism releases February housing starts.
Forecast: -1.8% y/y, a fifth straight drop after -1.1% in January.
Shortages of labor and building materials in the construction sector,
caused by a reconstruction boom in the earthquake-hit northeastern
region, are hampering a recovery in home building.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

• Yen should be weakened to at least 90/dollar

Well I guess he would say that, wouldn’t he.  Bless.