Ifo: Germany Mar Business Climate Rises Further, Pace Slows Posted: 26 Mar 2012 02:00 AM PDT Mar MNI analysts survey Feb Jan median range ———————————————————————— Business sentiment: 109.8 109.5 108.2 – 110.7 109.7 108.4 Current conditions 117.4 117.0 116.3 – 118.3 117.4 116.3 Six-month outlook: 102.7 102.9 101.5 – 104.0 102.4 100.9 – FRANKFURT (MNI) – German business morale surprised to the upside in March, extending its run of increases to five months on a more positive view of the near-term outlook, the Ifo institute reported on Monday. Taking into account modest upward revisions in both February and January, further improvement in March brought the Ifo headline figure to 109.8, its highest level since last July. Still, the gain this month was the smallest in nearly a year. “The German economy is losing some of its momentum,” Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release. Current conditions unexpectedly stabilized in March at a five-month high of 117.4. While weaker than forecast, expectations maintained their upward trend, gaining 0.3 point to 102.7, the best result since July. Sentiment within the manufacturing sector fell 0.3 point to 14.0 in March following two months of growth, as a downward revision in the current business situation offset a more favourable forward outlook. Respondents said they planned to increase staffing further, though by less than last month. Businesses also reported favourable impulses from foreign demand. Construction morale also lost some ground, slipping one full point to 2.3 on the back of a downward revision in the six-month outlook. Still, the indicator remains above zero, pointing to overall optimism in the sector. After hitting a seven-month high in February, morale among wholesalers slipped 2.2 points to 12.8 in March, with both the current situation and expectations falling. Conversely, retailers were more optimistic this month, citing improvements in their current situation and a brighter six-month horizon. In services, morale fell back half a point to 22.4 in March, due mainly to a weaker current conditions assessment. However, while respondents also revised down their expectations for the next six months, they still looked to add to staff, Ifo reported. The further improvement in the Ifo business climate is reassuring after the unexpected setback in the March manufacturing PMI (48.1), which slipped into contraction territory for the first time since late last year, as companies pointed to fewer new orders, lighter workloads and reductions in staff. The decline in the services PMI (51.8) was less severe, though still pointed to moderating business activity, only a modest rise in new work, and the slowest pace in employment growth since early 2010. Growth “will not be as positive” this year as in 2011, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a week ago, noting that the economy is “very vulnerable” to global trends. The Bundesbank expects average GDP growth of 0.6% this year after 3.1% last year. Yet despite a less favorable environment, the economy is in “remarkably good shape,” President Jens Weidmann said last week. In its latest monthly bulletin, the central bank suggested that unseasonably cold temperatures likely weighed on economic activity last month, and it pointed to an expected recovery in the spring. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE] |
EUR/USD hit by Middle eastern selling Posted: 26 Mar 2012 01:52 AM PDT Just pugged a day’s low of 1.3195, but EUR’s finding some support under 1.3200 for the moment Talk of some large expiries today at 1.3250, and some stops on a break down of 1.3190 ahead of bids down at 1.3160/70 and larger at 1.3135/40 EUR/USD’s at 1.3205 |
AUD/USD stops approaching. Posted: 26 Mar 2012 01:40 AM PDT There are sell stops down through 1.0420 and we,ve just been down to a day’s low of 1.0427. Below here lies the 200 DMA tech support at 1.0400 and 1.0375 which is the 100 DMA AUD/USD’s getting some support from a falling EUR/AUD down to 1.2655 from 1.2704 European session highs. |
USD/JPY at day’s highs. Posted: 26 Mar 2012 01:35 AM PDT Supposedly large offers sitting up in front of 83.00, with the USD hitting high’s of 82.92, but likely stops are seen on a break 0f 83.00, which may well boost the dollar and start a run higher again towards the recent 84.18 highs. On the downside bids are sitting down at 82.20/30 with sell stops on a break of 82.20 |
Ifo economist Wohlrabe: Ifo increase in March mainly due to better retail sales Posted: 26 Mar 2012 01:20 AM PDT - Inflation and oil price level not a big danger at the moment for firms, but poses potential risk
- Firms are getting used to the euro zone debt crisis, no sign that it is having a strong influence on them
- ECB interest rate level is appropriate
- Gain in Ifo shows that mini-recession in Germany can be avoided
Reuters reporting. |
Italy March consumer confidence rises to 96.8 Posted: 26 Mar 2012 01:03 AM PDT Up from revised 94.4 in February (prev 94.2) and demonstrably stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 93.7. Combo of better than expected German Ifo and Italian consumer confidence has given EUR/USD a bit of a lift and we’re up at 1.3260 (circa 1.3238 when data came out) |
German Ifo business climate index 109.8 in March Posted: 26 Mar 2012 01:02 AM PDT Stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 109.6. |
Australian opposition treasurer: If in government would look to central bank to cut rates in downturn before spending on stimulus Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:54 AM PDT - Pledges surplus budgets each year if in power
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More Rehn: Sees ‘reassuring decision’ this week on stability facility Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:42 AM PDT - Spain govt to make additional budget decisions soon
- Spain has major employment-related challenges
- Spain making determined efforts to combat slump
- Wants to examine Finland austerity measures carefully
- Finland austerity moves point in right direction
Bloomberg reporting. |
EU’s Rehn: ECB’s LTRO has prevented credit squeeze in Europe Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:37 AM PDT - Italy, Spain ‘very determined’ in budget efforts
- Strengthening confidence in Europe is top priority
- His goal is ‘strong enough stability mechanism’
- ‘Complete solution’ needed to calm situation
- Recession may be short as long as euro zone govts commit to austerity measures
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Dutch March business confidence -2.6 pts Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:33 AM PDT Down from -1.5 pts in February. |
EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts March 26th to 30th Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:00 AM PDT M3 – February Private HICP (flash) %yoy 3ma (%yoy) Lending (%yoy) %yoy Median Forecast 2.3 2.2 1.1 2.5 High forecast 2.7 2.3 1.3 2.7 Low forecast 1.7 2.1 1.1 2.2 Previous period 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.7 - Number of responses 17 10 3 14 - 4Cast 2.7 2.2 N/A 2.5 ABN AMRO 2.2 N/A N/A 2.6 Barclays Cap. 1.7 N/A 1.1 2.6 Berenberg Bank 2.7 N/A 1.3 2.6 BNP Paribas 2.2 2.1 N/A N/A BoA-ML N/A N/A N/A 2.5 Capital Economics N/A N/A N/A 2.5 Citi 2.2 2.1 N/A 2.3 Commerzbank 2.1 N/A N/A 2.5 DZ Bank 2.0 N/A N/A 2.2 Danske 2.3 N/A N/A N/A ING 2.3 2.1 N/A N/A Lloyds Bank N/A 2.3 N/A 2.4 LBBW 2.5 N/A N/A 2.7 Natixis 2.3 2.1 1.1 2.4 Soc. Generale 2.4 2.3 N/A N/A Standard Chartered 2.7 2.3 N/A 2.6 UBS 2.5 2.2 N/A N/A Unicredit 2.3 N/A N/A 2.7 West LB 2.0 2.1 N/A N/A – Economics Industry Services Business Sentiment Sentiment Sentiment Climate – March – – March – – March – – March - Median Forecast 94.2 -6.0 -1.0 -0.2 High forecast 95.0 -5.0 0.5 -0.1 Low forecast 93.8 -7.0 -1.1 -0.3 Previous period 94.4 -5.8 -0.9 -0.18 - Number of responses 14 10 5 7 - 4Cast N/A -5.0 N/A -0.2 ABN AMRO 94.1 N/A N/A N/A Barclays Cap. N/A N/A N/A N/A Berenberg Bank 95.0 -6.5 0.5 -0.1 BNP Paribas 94.6 -5.6 N/A N/A BoA-ML N/A N/A N/A N/A Capital Economics N/A N/A N/A N/A Citi 94.0 -6.0 N/A N/A Commerzbank 94.0 -6.0 -1.0 N/A DZ Bank 94.2 N/A N/A N/A Danske N/A N/A N/A N/A ING 94.2 -6.0 -1.1 -0.2 Lloyds Bank N/A -5.7 N/A N/A LBBW 94.4 N/A N/A N/A Natixis 93.8 -7.0 -1.0 -0.2 Soc. Generale 94.0 N/A N/A -0.2 Standard Chartered 94.8 -6.0 -0.8 -0.2 UBS N/A N/A N/A N/A Unicredit 94.4 N/A N/A N/A West LB 94.6 -5.0 N/A N/A Westpac 94.1 N/A N/A -0.3 ———————————————————————– * Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent a consensus. The survey was conducted on Friday, March 23. [TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$] |
Germany Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data Fcasts Mar 26th to 30th Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:00 AM PDT Ifo – March Business Current Expec- Climate Situation tations Median Forecast 109.5 117.0 102.9 High forecast 110.7 118.3 104.0 Low forecast 108.2 116.3 101.5 Previous period 109.6 117.5 102.3 - Number of responses 19 11 11 - 4Cast 110.7 117.7 103.7 ABN AMRO N/A N/A N/A Barclays Cap. 109.2 117.0 102.0 Berenberg Bank 109.0 116.9 103.4 BNP Paribas 109.6 116.7 103.0 BoA-ML 109.5 N/A N/A Capital Economics N/A N/A N/A Citi 110.0 N/A N/A Commerzbank 109.5 N/A N/A DZ Bank 110.3 118.3 103.1 Danske 108.2 116.3 102.0 ING 109.2 117.5 101.5 Lloyds Bank 110.0 N/A N/A LBBW 110.0 N/A N/A Natixis 109.2 116.5 102.0 Soc. Generale 110.5 117.5 104.0 Standard Chartered 110.0 117.9 102.9 UBS 109.2 117.0 102.0 Unicredit 110.2 N/A N/A West LB 109.5 N/A N/A Westpac 109.5 N/A N/A – Import Prices GfK – February – Consumer Morale %mom %yoy – April - Median Forecast 1.0 3.1 6.1 High forecast 1.1 3.7 6.5 Low forecast 0.6 2.9 5.9 Previous period 1.3 3.7 6.0 - Number of responses 5 5 13 - 4Cast N/A N/A 6.0 ABN AMRO N/A N/A N/A Barclays Cap. N/A N/A N/A Berenberg Bank N/A N/A 5.9 BNP Paribas 1.0 3.5 N/A BoA-ML N/A N/A N/A Capital Economics N/A N/A 6.5 Citi 0.6 3.1 N/A Commerzbank N/A N/A 6.0 DZ Bank N/A N/A 6.2 Danske N/A N/A N/A ING N/A N/A 6.1 Lloyds Bank N/A N/A 6.1 LBBW N/A N/A 5.9 Natixis 1.1 3.7 6.1 Soc. Generale N/A N/A N/A Standard Chartered N/A N/A 6.0 UBS 1.0 N/A 6.1 Unicredit N/A 2.9 6.0 West LB 0.8 3.0 6.2 Westpac N/A N/A N/A – CPI (flash) HICP (flash) – March – – March - %mom %yoy %mom %yoy Median Forecast 0.4 2.2 0.3 2.2 High forecast 0.6 2.3 0.4 2.3 Low forecast 0.3 2.0 0.2 2.1 Previous period 0.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 - Number of responses 10 15 9 9 - 4Cast 0.3 2.1 0.3 2.2 ABN AMRO N/A 2.2 N/A N/A Barclays Cap. 0.3 2.1 0.3 2.3 Berenberg Bank N/A 2.3 N/A N/A BNP Paribas 0.4 2.3 0.4 2.3 BoA-ML N/A 2.2 N/A N/A Capital Economics N/A N/A N/A N/A Citi 0.4 2.2 0.4 2.2 Commerzbank 0.3 2.1 N/A N/A DZ Bank N/A N/A 0.2 2.1 Danske N/A N/A N/A N/A ING 0.6 2.3 N/A N/A Lloyds Bank N/A N/A 0.4 2.3 LBBW N/A 2.3 N/A N/A Natixis 0.3 2.1 0.3 2.2 Soc. Generale 0.3 2.1 0.4 2.3 Standard Chartered 0.5 2.3 N/A N/A UBS N/A N/A 0.3 2.2 Unicredit N/A 2.0 N/A N/A West LB 0.4 2.2 N/A N/A Westpac N/A N/A N/A N/A – Unemployment – March – Retail Sales change rate – February - (’000s) (%) %mom %yoy Median Forecast -10.0 6.8 1.5 0.2 High forecast 15.0 6.8 1.9 1.7 Low forecast -16.0 6.7 0.8 -0.3 Previous period 0.0 6.8 -2.3 -1.5 - Number of responses 13 12 7 4 - 4Cast 12.0 6.8 N/A N/A ABN AMRO 5.0 6.8 N/A N/A Barclays Cap. N/A N/A 1.5 1.7 Berenberg Bank -10.0 6.7 0.8 N/A BNP Paribas -5.0 6.8 1.0 -0.3 BoA-ML N/A N/A N/A N/A Capital Economics N/A N/A N/A N/A Citi 5.0 N/A N/A N/A Commerzbank -10.0 N/A N/A N/A DZ Bank -15.0 6.8 N/A N/A Danske N/A N/A N/A N/A ING N/A 6.7 1.5 0.2 Lloyds Bank -15.0 6.8 N/A N/A LBBW N/A 6.8 N/A N/A Natixis -5.0 6.8 1.9 0.1 Soc. Generale 15.0 6.8 N/A N/A Standard Chartered -15.0 6.7 N/A N/A UBS N/A N/A N/A N/A Unicredit -10.0 N/A 1.5 N/A West LB -16.0 6.8 1.2 N/A Westpac N/A N/A N/A N/A —————————————————————– * Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent a consensus. The survey was conducted on Friday, March 23. [TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$] |
France Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Mar 26th to 30th Posted: 26 Mar 2012 12:00 AM PDT Consumer Consumer Spending Morale – February - – March – %mom %yoy Median Forecast 82 0.3 -2.2 High forecast 83 0.5 -2.2 Low forecast 80 -0.8 -3.4 Previous period 82 -0.4 -2.2 - Number of responses 8 6 3 - ABN AMRO 82 0.3 N/A Berenberg Bank 83 0.2 N/A BNP Paribas 81 N/A N/A Citi 83 -0.8 -3.4 Commerzbank N/A 0.4 -2.2 ING 80 N/A N/A Natixis 83 0.5 -2.2 Soc. Generale 82 N/A N/A West LB 82 0.2 N/A ———————————————————————– * Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent a consensus. The survey was conducted on Friday, March 23. [TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$] |
More from ECB’s Coeure: Eurobonds are part of the solution Posted: 25 Mar 2012 11:55 PM PDT - But can’t see eurobonds coming into being soon
- Eurobonds require full trust between euro governments
- Complete trust between European governments lacking
- Greece must deliver on commitments to EU
- Cannot envision Greece leaving the euro
- Portugal, Spain situations different from Greece
- Spain’s new govt forceful in implementing reform
EUR/USD sits at 1.3250, exactly where it was when I sat down two and a half hours ago. |
Japan’s top currency official Nakao: Japan carefully watching situation in Europe Posted: 25 Mar 2012 11:11 PM PDT - It’s important progress made in European crisis
- Monti making real efforts to boost Italy’s economy
- ECB has taken decisive actions
- ECB’s unconventional steps have helped bond market
- Banks benefit from ECB’s actions
- Makeup of European firewall not clear yet
- Global discussion needed on boosting IMF funds
- Japan has bought 12% of EFSF bonds
- Japan has bought 3.3 billion euro of EFSF bonds
Bloomberg reporting. Elsewhere - Japan MOF currency tsar Nakao: EFSF bonds are safe, attractive assets for Japan foreign reserves.
Reuters reporting. |
Eurostoxx 50 futures up +0.3% early Posted: 25 Mar 2012 11:06 PM PDT DAX and CAC 40 futures up +0.4%. |
Germany’s IG Metall Union Optimistic On Notable Pay Increase Posted: 25 Mar 2012 11:00 PM PDT FRANKFURT (MNI) – Germany’s powerful IG Metall Union is confident there will be notable wage increases, IG Metall head Berthold Huber told the German daily Die Berliner Zeitung on Saturday. “I am optimistic that we will push through a decent pay rise,” Huber said. Europe’s biggest union is calling for a 6.5% pay increase over the coming 12 months. IG Metall has 3.6 million members in the metals and electronics industries. The sector employer association Arbeitgeberverband Gesamtmetall has rejected demands, noting that the union can justify only around 3% with productivity and inflation developments. Workers at the German car maker Opel, who are negotiating a separate deal, also expect to see a boost in wages. The works committee’s head told Berliner Zeitung he expected to see an increase of “at least 4%.” -Frankfurt newsroom +49 69 72 01 42; e-mail: jtreeck@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$G$$$] |
ECB’s Orphanides Not Likely Re-Appointed By Cyprus: Press Posted: 25 Mar 2012 10:30 PM PDT PARIS (MNI) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Athanasios Orphanides is unlikely to be reappointed as governor of the central bank of Cyprus and as a result would no longer hold that country’s seat at the ECB, the Financial Times reported Sunday. The newspaper said the government in Nicosia is signalling that Orphanides will not be reappointed when his five-year term expires at the end of next month. Orphanides has been in conflict with the communist government of Cyprus over its unwillingness to cut spending and reform the economy. That makes his reappointment unlikely, the FT said, citing sources familiar with the government’s thinking. It quoted one such source as saying that “nobody in the banking sector expects him to stay.” Orphanides, who spent a considerable amount of time earlier in his career at the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., is considered an intellectual heavyweight in central banking circles, and he is known to have made substantial contributions to internal ECB policy debates. Orphanides warned the Cypriot government early on that without quick action to slash budget deficits it would face serious problems in the face of the financial crisis. The government did not act as Orphanides urged, and its shaky fiscal situation has led many to believe that it could be another Eurozone country in need of a bailout. –Paris newsroom, +331-42-71-555-40; bwolfson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$EC$,M$Y$$$,M$$CR$,MGX$$$] |
Coeure:ECB Must Unwind Exceptional Moves Once Conditions Ripe Posted: 25 Mar 2012 10:10 PM PDT TOKYO (MNI) – The European Central Bank must unwind its non-standard policy measures as soon as market conditions permit and will have the tools to do so, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said Monday. “We can withdraw the ample liquidity created as a side-effect of the long-term operation whenever the Governing Council deems liquidity conditions are excessive in view of the outlook for price stability,” Coeure said in a text for delivery to a conference here. “All the tools necessary for large-scale liquidity withdrawal are already in place or will be readily available when needed,” he assured. A “timely exit” from these measures “and a return to a less accommodative policy stance – once the economic conditions are ripe – are essential,” Coeure stressed. Loose monetary policy over time could “fuel excessive risk-taking, leverage and asset price bubbles” and make banks, companies and governments addicted to low rates and dissuade them from cleaning up their balance sheets, he cautioned. “At present, we are seeing some encouraging, albeit early, signs of normalization across financial market segments,” Coeure said. He noted the pick-up in M3 money supply growth and lending in January, as well as the decline of stock market volatility and money market credit spreads. The role of the ECB is not to cure the “root cause” of the current crisis: weak fiscal institutions, diverging competitiveness among Eurozone countries and low potential growth due to delayed structural reforms, he stressed. Indeed, if there is a silver lining in the crisis, it might be the obligation “to pursue sustainable state finances and to undertake the necessary structural reforms,” he said. “Switching this mechanism off would weaken incentives to conduct the right economic policies.” “Some” governments “have taken important steps towards addressing the root cause of market malfunctioning,” he noted. Mechanisms for tighter collective fiscal surveillance are being created and “might become the first step towards a fully-fledged fiscal union.” Armed with graphs and equations, Coeure resumed the success story of the ECB in assuring price stability over the medium term and keeping financial markets functioning during the worst crisis since the second world war. The recent overshoot in inflation is due mainly to volatile energy prices and “certainly remains within the strictest tolerance bands,” he asserted. Moreover, the Eurozone economy has enjoyed relative stability — second only to that of Switzerland — and produced a rise of GDP per capita comparable to that of the United States, he showed. “Borrowing money in the euro area is cheaper today – in real and nominal terms – than it was a decade and a half ago, and the lower cost of borrowing is largely related to a less uncertain and a more predictable macroeconomy,” he argued. [TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$$EC$,MT$$$$,MGX$$$] |
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