Weaker than Reuter’s median forecasts of +0.2%, +2.7% respectively.

Does it amount to a hill of beans……..NO.

Hooooray!!!

• We met all targets under review
• Portugal to get 4.1 bln euros from IMF, EU
• GDP to increase 0.2% in 2013
• Achieving 4.5%/GDP deficit goal in 2012 is doable
• There are risks, especially from unemployment pressuring social security accounts
• It’s crucial to guarantee rigorous budget execution
• 2013 debt estimate raised to 118%/GDP
• There’s growing investor confidence in Portugal that shows in lower yields

Down from -24.5 in May.  Slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of -29.5.

Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.

Producer Prices Retail Sales
– April – – April -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 0.2 2.7 -0.2 -1.1
High forecast 0.5 2.9 0.3 -0.7
Low forecast -0.2 2.3 -0.6 -1.8
Previous period 0.5 3.3 0.3 -0.2
-
Number of responses 10 9 12 5
-
4Cast 0.3 2.7 -0.1 n/a
ABN AMRO n/a n/a -0.4 n/a
Barclays Cap. 0.2 2.7 0.2 -0.7
BNP Paribas 0.1 2.7 0.2 n/a
Capital Economics 0.0 2.5 -0.2 -1.0
Citi -0.2 2.4 -0.3 n/a
DZ Bank 0.4 n/a n/a n/a
LBBW 0.2 n/a 0.2 n/a
Natixis 0.3 2.8 n/a n/a
Standard Chartered -0.2 2.3 -0.6 -1.4
UBS n/a n/a -0.1 -1.8
Unicredit n/a n/a 0.3 n/a
West LB 0.5 2.9 -0.2 -1.1
Westpac n/a 2.7 -0.5 n/a

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 1.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Industrial Orders Industrial Output
– April – – April -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast -0.8 -2.6 -0.9 0.4
High forecast 2.2 -1.2 0.6 1.0
Low forecast -2.5 -5.3 -2.0 -3.0
Previous period 2.2 -1.3 2.8 -0.4
-
Number of responses 14 6 15 4
-
4Cast -0.9 n/a -0.7 n/a
ABN AMRO -1.9 n/a -1.5 n/a
Barclays Cap. 0.0 n/a -0.5 n/a
BNP Paribas -0.4 n/a -0.5 n/a
Capital Economics -2.5 -5.3 -2.0 -0.2
Citi -0.6 -3.4 -0.9 1.0
Commerzbank 0.5 -2.5 -1.0 1.0
DZ Bank -0.5 n/a -0.5 n/a
LBBW -1.5 n/a -0.5 n/a
Nomura 2.2 n/a -1.5 n/a
Standard Chartered -1.5 -2.7 -1.8 -3.0
UBS 1.7 -1.2 0.6 n/a
Unicredit -1.0 n/a -0.5 n/a
West LB -1.0 n/a -1.6 n/a
Westpac n/a -2.0 -1.5 n/a
–

Trade Balance Exports
– April – – April -
E Bln (SA) %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 13.5 -1.7 1.0
High forecast 15.5 -0.6 3.0
Low forecast 12.0 -2.5 -1.0
Previous period 13.7 0.9 0.7
-
Number of responses 6 4 2
-
4Cast 12.0 n/a n/a
BNP Paribas 13.5 n/a n/a
Citi 15.5 n/a n/a
Commerzbank n/a -2.5 n/a
DZ Bank 14.5 n/a n/a
LBBW 13.5 n/a n/a
Natixis 12.6 -0.6 n/a
Standard Chartered n/a -1.3 n/a
Unicredit n/a n/a -1.0
West LB n/a -2.0 n/a
Westpac n/a n/a 3.0

—————————————————————-
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 1.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

He’s just talkin his book

What with 1.2350 having been reached last week.

We sit at 1.2410.

So what will we see first, 1.2300 or 1.2500?

Reasoning/s for choice always welcome, but not obligatory.

As Aleksandr Orlov would say “simples”

London is out enjoying a two-day bank holiday.

As such, it’s now overly surprising to see forex markets get off to an exceedingly slow start.

EUR/USD effectively unchanged at 1.2408.

Buy orders seen clustered 1.2370/80 and more clustered down around 1.2350.   Sell orders seen clustered up at 1.2450/60 and more up at 1.2490/00.

Euro zone data thin on the ground this morning:

08:30 GMT:  Eurozone sentix investor confidence for June expected -30 from previous -24.5

09;00 GMT: Eurozone producer price index for April expected +0.2% m/m, +2.7% y/y.

By 30,113 people.

4.7 mln registered out of work.

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The likelihood Cyprus will turn to the European
bailout fund for assistance is growing as the country looks for E1.8
billion in recapitalization before the end of this month, European
Central Bank Governing Council member Panicos Demetriades told the
Financial Times.

Cyprus’ Popular Bank, the country’s second largest lender, requires
at least E1.8 billion in funds by June 30 and appears to have little
choice but to turn to Europe for assistance.

“Clearly the closer you get to the deadline, the less unlikely it
becomes,” Demetriades, who recently replaced Athanasios Orphanides as
head of the Cypriot central bank, said in a interview published online
Sunday afternoon.

Demetriades said Cyprus was in talks with European authorities to
push back the deadline to the end of August. But, “there is a backstop
there and the backstop is the European Financial Stability Facility and
that backstop will be used if necessary.”

With their significant exposure to Greek bonds, Cypriot banks have
been hit hard by the debt crisis. Cypriot President Dimitris
Christofias, blaming Orphanides for failing to predict the extent of
losses to the Cyprus banking system, decided not to renominate him as
head of the central bank after his term expired at the end of April.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$,M$Y$$$]

BERLIN (MNI) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble want Spain to apply for financial aid from the
European bailout fund EFSF to prop up its banking system, the German
weekly Der Spiegel reported over the weekend, citing no sources.

According to the magazine, last week at their meeting in Berlin,
Schaeuble urged Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos to request aid
from the EFSF in order to prevent contagion of the debt crisis to
further Eurozone members. Guindos rejected that demand, Der Spiegel
said.

Experts of the German government estimate that Spain’s banking
sector needs additional capital of E50 to E90 billion, Der Spiegel
wrote.

The German Finance Ministry said Friday it supports the European
Commission in giving Spain more time to meet its deficit targets.
Spokesman Johannes Blankenheim said that the ministry acknowledges that
“due to an unfavorable economic development it can become difficult” for
Spain to meet its deficit targets.

EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said on
Wednesday that the European Commission would be prepared to give Spain
an extra year to reach its budget deficit target, provided Madrid comes
up with a convincing budget plan for 2013-2014 and ensures the country’s
regional governments rein in spending.

Meanwhile, the German weekly Welt am Sonntag (WamS) reported over
the weekend that ECB president Mario Draghi, EU Commission president
Jose Manual Barroso, EU Council President Herman van Rompuy and
Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker were drawing up a master plan for
deepening the European integration.

According to the paper, the plan includes a fiscal union, a banking
union, a political union and structural reforms. The proposals will be
included in the resolutions of the upcoming EU summit later this month.
However, the German government warns against expecting too much from the
June summit, stating that only a road map is to be decided there, WamS
said.

German Finance Ministry spokesman Blankenheim said Friday that
regarding the EU proposal for a banking union with a common EU-wide
deposit guarantee scheme, the ministry does “not currently see how such
considerations can be helpful for coping [with the Eurozone sovereign
debt crisis] in the short term.”

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$S$$$,M$G$$$,MT$$$$]

DAX futures down -1.3%, CAC 40 futures down -0.9%.

• France has to balance retirement system
• Confident Greeks will chose Europe
• Greece has a tax collection problem

Bloomberg reporting.

According to El Mundo, Merkel twice recommended to former Spanish PM Zapatero than Spain receive a bailout.

Once in May 2010 after Greece received 110 bln euros in aid and again last year.

Recent reports have the German Chancellor once again trying to cajole  the Spanish into taking aid.

• BOJ should consider unilateral intervention

Keidanren is the Japan business federation.

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em.

The latest Reuters poll shows that opinions are changing quickly and there are even 3 out of 23 who think we might get a 50 bps cut again.

• Australian job ads -2.4% MoM
• Australian Q1 business inventories +0.9% QoQ; business profits -8.3% before income tax
• Australian TD-MI inflation gauge +0.0% MoM
• Market leaning towards 25bps rate cut tomorrow by RBA
• EZ politicians increase talk of fiscal authority and even fiscal union
• FinMin Azumi refuses to comment on the FX market
• Regional stockmarkets fall by 2% on average
• Gold $1623/oz, Oil $82.20/bbl
• BOJ getting steamrolled by bullish Yen sentiment: Bloomberg

It’s been a fairly quiet session with none of the majors moving too far away from their NY closing levels. EUR/USD spent the early interbank hours trading 1.2400/25 and then tried to move higher in early trade on the back of the EZ political leader statements re fiscal union etc. This momentum soon stalled once sharemarkets opened 2% lower, sending the JPY crosses lower. Ranges: 1.2384/1.2442; EUR/JPY 96.74/97.22

AUD/USD moved around with shifts in risk sentiment, AUD/JPY flows and speculation regarding the RBA tomorrow. We will end the session about 30 pips below the NY closing level from Friday. Ranges: .9623/.9707

USD/JPY 78.02/27; Cable 1.5339/74

Very little interest being shown in Asian trade. Bids near 1.2370/75 remain untested for now and rally-sellers at 1.2450 were also unrewarded. EUR/GBP might provide some impetus once European traders get up and running. We will close near NY’s closing levels from Friday.