HICP (flash) M3 – May
– June – %yoy 3mma
%yoy (%y/y)

Median Forecast 2.4 2.3 2.5
High forecast 2.5 2.6 2.7
Low forecast 2.2 1.8 0.0
Previous period 2.4 2.5 2.7
-
Number of responses 14 9 5
-
4Cast 2.3 2.5 2.7
Barclays Cap. 2.3 2.3 n/a
Berenberg Bank 2.3 2.3 n/a
BNP Paribas 2.2 n/a n/a
Capital Economics 2.3 1.8 n/a
Citi 2.4 1.9 2.5
Commerzbank n/a 2.2 0.0
DZ Bank 2.5 n/a n/a
Lloyds Bank 2.3 n/a n/a
LBBW 2.4 2.4 n/a
Nomura 2.4 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 2.4 2.6 2.7
Standard Chartered 2.4 n/a n/a
UBS 2.3 1.8 2.5
Unicredit 2.4 n/a n/a
–

Economic Industrial Services
Morale Morale Morale
– June – – June – – June -

Median Forecast 89.5 -12.0 -6.0
High forecast 90.6 -11.3 -4.8
Low forecast 87.5 -14.3 -8.0
Previous period 90.5 -11.3 -4.9
-
Number of responses 13 10 7
-
4Cast 88.0 -14.0 -6.0
Barclays Cap. n/a -11.7 n/a
Berenberg Bank 89.0 -12.0 -6.5
BNP Paribas 87.5 -13.8 n/a
Capital Economics 89.5 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 89.5 -12.0 -6.0
DZ Bank 90.0 n/a n/a
LBBW 89.7 -12.0 n/a
Natixis 90.2 -11.9 -4.8
Soc. Generale 90.0 -12.0 -6.0
Standard Chartered 87.5 -14.3 -8.0
UBS 90.6 -11.3 -4.9
Unicredit 89.6 n/a n/a
Westpac 88.5 n/a n/a
——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 22.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

CPI – June HICP – June
(flash) (flash)
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 0.0 1.8 -0.1 2.1
High forecast 0.1 1.9 0.2 2.4
Low forecast -0.2 1.6 -0.2 1.7
Previous period -0.2 1.9 -0.2 2.2
-
Number of responses 10 12 11 12
-
4Cast 0.0 1.8 0.0 2.1
Barclays Cap. 0.0 1.8 -0.1 2.1
BNP Paribas -0.2 1.6 -0.2 2.0
BoA-ML 0.1 1.9 0.1 2.1
Capital Economics n/a n/a -0.2 2.1
Citi 0.0 1.8 0.0 2.2
Commerzbank -0.1 1.7 n/a n/a
DZ Bank n/a n/a 0.2 2.4
Lloyds Bank n/a n/a -0.1 2.1
LBBW n/a 1.8 n/a n/a
Natixis -0.2 1.6 -0.2 1.9
Nomura n/a n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 0.0 1.8 -0.1 2.1
Standard Chartered 0.0 1.8 n/a n/a
UBS -0.2 1.9 -0.2 2.2
Unicredit n/a 1.7 n/a 1.7
Westpac n/a n/a n/a n/a
–

Unemployment GfK – July
– June – Consumer
change rate Morale
(000s) (%)

Median Forecast 5.0 6.7 5.6
High forecast 10.0 6.8 5.7
Low forecast -10.0 0.0 5.5
Previous period 19.0 6.8 5.7
-
Number of responses 12 12 5
-
4Cast n/a 6.7 5.7
Berenberg Bank 5.0 6.7 n/a
BoA-ML n/a 6.7 5.5
Capital Economics n/a 6.8 n/a
Citi 10.0 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 0.0 n/a 5.6
DZ Bank 8.0 6.7 5.6
Lloyds Bank 10.0 6.7 n/a
LBBW n/a 6.8 n/a
Natixis 0.0 6.7 5.6
Nomura 10.0 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale -10.0 n/a n/a
Standard Chartered 7.0 6.8 n/a
UBS 0.0 6.7 n/a
Unicredit -5.0 6.7 n/a
Westpac 5.0 n/a n/a
—————————————————————-
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 22.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Consumer Consumer Spending
Morale on Manufactured Goods (May)
– June – %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 90 -0.4 0.1
High forecast 91 0.4 0.5
Low forecast 88 -1.1 -1.0
Previous period 90 -1.3 -1.6
-
Number of responses 7 4 5
-
Barclays Cap. 90 n/a n/a
Berenberg Bank n/a n/a n/a
BNP Paribas 91 n/a n/a
BoA-ML n/a 0.4 0.5
Capital Economics 88 n/a n/a
Citi 89 -1.1 -1.0
Natixis 91 -0.8 -0.7
Soc. Generale 91 0.0 0.1
UBS 90 n/a 0.4
———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 22.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member
David Miles says in an interview with the Financial Times published
today that the UK economy needs at least another stg50bn more QE.

“Do we need a more expansionary monetary policy? ‘Yes’. Should it
be a substantial change in asset purchases? ‘Yes’. Is stg50bn a
substantial number? ‘Yes it is’. Could one know in advance what is
exactly the right amount to do? ‘Absolutely not’”.

Miles also said that he did not think that the coalition
government’s deficit-reduction plan was to blame for the weakness of the
UK’s economic recovery, adding that he thought that high commodity
prices had pushed up inflation and reduced household incomes.

He also said that rising bank funding costs had led to an increase
in the cost of credit to businesses.

“A pretty substantial increase in the costs of funding for most UK
banks then got passed through in the form of some increases in the costs
of lending to corporates, and pretty clearly some increase in the costs
of mortgages. That has been pretty unhelpful,” he said.

Miles also said that the BOE’s new Extended Collateral Term Repo
program will help the operation of monetary policy as it would remove
banks’ fear that they needed to stockpile cash rather than lend.

“It’s a complement to one of the levers we’ve got, rather than a
substitute because [the MPC] has run out of effective levers,” he said.

–London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491; email: wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

There’s some talk of corporate, and possible sovereign bids sitting ahead of the level, but the tone remains heavy in an otherwise lacklustre market.

Sell stops remain down through 0.9980 and offers start from  1.0040/55 ahead of tech res around 1.0073  (55 day MA) with buy stops up through 1.0075

AUD’s sitting  around 1.0018

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member
David Miles says in an interview with the Financial Times published
today that the UK economy needs at least another stg50bn more QE.

“Do we need a more expansionary monetary policy? ‘Yes’.
Should it be a substantial change in asset purchases? ‘Yes’. Is stg50bn
a substantial number? ‘Yes it is’. Could one know in advance what is
exactly the right amount to do? ‘Absolutely not’”.

–London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491; email: wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

‘Ms Cospedal has taken dead aim at the red ink – closing schools, dismissing teachers, privatising hospitals and lengthening public employees’ work week’

Italian 10 year govt bond yield up 7 bps at 5.88%, Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up 9 bps at 6.44%.

Italian 5 year credit default swaps up 13 bps at 513 bps.

Spanish 5 year credit default swaps up 8 bps at 572 bps.

EUR/USD down at 1.249o. More sell stops noted through 1.2470.

Up from April’s  reading of  -0.8%m/m, +3% y/y, and above forecast of +2.7%y/y

FRANKFURT (MNI) – A draft of a proposal urging EU states to
surrender bank supervisory and budgetary powers, as well as to consider
the idea of pooling efforts to issue debt, is expected to be circulated
to member states on Monday, three days before Thursday’s EU leaders’
summit, the Financial Times reported.

The report, co-authored by European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi, EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission
President Jose Manuel Barroso and Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker,
would set out an “integrated financial framework” for all members of the
European Union and would allow for opt-outs for EU members outside the
Eurozone.

The draft, however, acknowledged, that ideas such as eurobonds or
eurobills would likely require changes to existing EU treaties, the
business daily said, citing those involved with drafting the report.

The paper also urged EU leaders to “actively explore” giving
Europe’s permanent bailout fund more intervention tools and examine
central banks’ role in providing emergency funding to banks, the FT
added.

In a recent interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble reiterated Berlin’s position in
favor of transferring more power from sovereign governments to Brussels.

“We must transfer more responsibilities to Brussels in major
political areas, without national governments being able to block
decisions,” Schaeuble said.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$EC$,M$$CR$,MT$$$$,M$G$$$]

‘Antonio Fazio, the disgraced former governor of the Bank of Italy, warned half-jokingly in 1998 that the euro would not be paradise but a “purgatory” that would demand years of pain and sacrifice.’

Both pairs heading for sell stops placed on a break of 80.00 and 100.00, but sovereign bids in USD/JPY in the 80.00/10 so far propping the pair . There are more sell stops reportedly through 79.80 ahead of next band of support down at 79.50/60.

EUR/JPY has some residual support around 99.80/85 but a break there targets last week’s lows around 99.10/20

USD/JPY sitting around 80.06 with the cross at 100.12

–Adds Comments By Econ Min Roesler To Story Sent At 06:06 GMT

BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble over the
weekend again reaffirmed Germany’s opposition to joint liabilities in
the Eurozone before a real fiscal union has been achieved.

“As long as we do not have a fiscal union we cannot have joint
liabilities for [sovereign] debt,” Schaeuble told the German weekly Der
Spiegel in an interview published Sunday.

In a separate interview for German ZDF public television aired
Sunday, Schaeuble called instead for a fight against the causes of the
sovereign debt crisis: “Money alone or bailouts or any other solutions,
or monetary policy at the ECB — that will never resolve the problem.”

Fighting the causes of the crisis is “succeeding very well in
Ireland and Portugal,” the minister told ZDF. Italy and Spain are making
“great reform efforts,” he said.

However, Greece has not progressed enough on its budget
consolidation and reform path, Schaeuble said. “Nobody on earth who has
followed this issue would think that Greece has fulfilled what it has
promised.”

In an interview with the German weekly Bild am Sonntag published
Sunday, Schaeuble said the most important task facing new Greek Prime
Minister Antonis Samaras “is to enact the agreed program quickly and
without further delay instead of asking how much more others can do for
Greece.”

German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler in a ZDF interview on
Monday also urged the new Greek government to stick to the reform
program, warning that “what we’re hearing up to now goes rather in the
opposite direction.”

In the Spiegel interview, Schaeuble called for handing more powers
to the European Union: “We must transfer more responsibilities to
Brussels in major political areas, without national governments being
able to block decisions.”

He also warned against a break-up of the European Monetary Union:
“Many things that we have achieved and cherish would be called into
question — from the common market to free travel across Europe”.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$Y$$$]

My money’s on Germany in the footie and on Germany to continue their ‘incremental approach.’

Probably not what the market wants to see, but there we go.

BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble over the
weekend again reaffirmed Germany’s opposition to joint liabilities in
the Eurozone before a real fiscal union has been achieved.

“As long as we do not have a fiscal union we cannot have joint
liabilities for [sovereign] debt,” Schaeuble told the German weekly Der
Spiegel in an interview published Sunday.

In a separate interview for German ZDF public television aired
Sunday, Schaeuble called instead for a fight against the causes of the
sovereign debt crisis: “Money alone or bailouts or any other solutions,
or monetary policy at the ECB — that will never resolve the problem.”

Fighting the causes of the crisis is “succeeding very well in
Ireland and Portugal,” the minister told ZDF. Italy and Spain are making
“great reform efforts,” he said.

However, Greece has not progressed enough on its budget
consolidation and reform path, Schaeuble said. “Nobody on earth who has
followed this issue would think that Greece has fulfilled what it has
promised.”

In an interview with the German weekly Bild am Sonntag published
Sunday, Schaeuble said the most important task facing new Greek Prime
Minister Antonis Samaras “is to enact the agreed program quickly and
without further delay instead of asking how much more others can do for
Greece.”

In the Spiegel interview, Schaeuble also called for handing more
powers to the European Union: “We must transfer more responsibilities to
Brussels in major political areas, without national governments being
able to block decisions.”

He also warned against a break-up of the European Monetary Union:
“Many things that we have achieved and cherish would be called into
question — from the common market to free travel across Europe”.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$Y$$$]

EUR/USD:  Offers 1.2550/60, 1.2615/25. Bids 1.2500/10 sell stops through 1.2500 and 1.2470

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5570/80 sell stops below,tech support 1.5545/50 (1.5546 21 day MA) Offers 1.5595/10 and 1.5625/35

EUR/GBP:  Tech supp 0.8025/30, res 0.8065/70

USD/JPY:  Bids 80.00/10 (ichimoku cloud base 80.07), sell stops below and through 79.80. Offers 80.30/50 (100 day MA 80.49) buy stops through 80.65 ahead of more offers 80.75/85, buy stops through 81.00 and 81.50

EUR/JPY: Bids 100.00/10. sell stops below. Offers 100.80/00 and 101.35/50 buy stops above

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9590/00, bids 0.9540/50

AUD/USD: Good bids 1.0000/10, sell stops though 0.9980, Offers 1.0045/55, tech res 1.0070/75 (55 day MA @ 1.0073), buy stops above

AUD/JPY:  Sell stops through 80.00

EUR/AUD: Tech supp 1.2470 (61.8% of this year's rally),

NZD/USD:  Bids 0.7830/40, sell stops through tech supp 0.7800/05, offers 0.7900/10

Financial bookies see FTSE opening flat.

Elsewhere they see DAX opening down around -0.4% and CAC 40 down around -0.3%.

Investors not terribly hopeful of meaningful progress being made at this weeks’ EU summit.  Can’t think why……

‘Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders this week to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency.’

Roger Bootle’s take  on the current crisis….. UK Telegraph

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut…

EUR/USD: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2580, 1.2650, 1.2700

USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.50, 80.00, 80.25, 80.35, 80.50

GBP/USD: 1.5600, 1.5650, 1.5800

AUD/USD: 0.9850, 0.9965, 1.0030, 1.0200

USD/CAD: 1.0110, 1.0210