11km NNW of San Martin ,30Km ESE of Mendoza

Depth 14.1km- USGS

PMI (flash)
– June –
mfg svc

Median Forecast 44.9 46.2
High forecast 45.5 46.9
Low forecast 43.0 45.0
Previous period 45.1 46.7
-
Number of responses 17 18
-
4Cast 44.9 45.0
ABN AMRO 45.5 46.2
Barclays Cap. 43.9 46.0
BNP Paribas 44.4 45.7
Capital Economics 43.0 45.8
Citi 44.5 45.8
Commerzbank 45.0 46.4
DZ Bank 44.6 46.4
ING 45.3 45.9
LBBW 45.5 46.9
Natixis 44.9 46.7
Nomura N/A 46.1
Soc. Generale 45.3 46.8
Standard Chartered 44.5 46.0
UBS 45.4 46.9
Unicredit 45.0 46.5
West LB 44.9 46.6
Westpac 44.0 45.5

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 15.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

ZEW – June Producer Prices
Economic Current – May -
Expectations Situation %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 2.0 40.0 -0.2 2.2
High forecast 9.6 43.8 0.1 2.5
Low forecast -10.0 38.0 -0.5 1.9
Previous period 10.8 44.1 0.2 2.4
-
Number of responses 17 7 9 8
-
4Cast 5.0 40.0 0.1 2.5
ABN AMRO 0.0 n/a n/a n/a
BNP Paribas 2.8 40.5 -0.2 2.2
Capital Economics 2.0 n/a -0.1 2.3
Citi -3.0 n/a -0.5 1.9
Commerzbank -10.0 n/a n/a n/a
DZ Bank 6.0 40.0 0.1 n/a
Danske 0.0 n/a n/a n/a
ING n/a 38.0 n/a n/a
LBBW -5.0 n/a -0.1 n/a
Natixis 5.0 39.0 -0.2 2.2
Nomura -7.5 n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 5.0 n/a n/a n/a
Standard Chartered 5.0 41.0 -0.5 1.9
UBS 9.6 43.8 n/a n/a
Unicredit 2.0 n/a n/a 2.5
West LB 5.0 n/a -0.4 2.0
Westpac 0.0 n/a n/a n/a
–

Ifo – June
business current expec-
morale situation tations

Median Forecast 105.5 111.7 99.9
High forecast 106.6 113.1 100.5
Low forecast 103.0 100.4 99.0
Previous period 106.9 113.3 100.9
-
Number of responses 15 8 7
-
4Cast 106.6 113.1 100.5
ABN AMRO 105.2 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 105.0 111.0 99.0
BNP Paribas 105.2 111.3 99.4
Capital Economics 103.5 n/a n/a
Citi 103.0 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 105.5 n/a n/a
DZ Bank 105.4 110.8 100.3
ING 106.0 100.4 n/a
LBBW 105.5 n/a n/a
Natixis 105.9 112.0 100.0
Nomura 106.2 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 105.3 112.0 99.0
Standard Chartered 105.9 112.3 99.9
Westpac 105.5 n/a n/a
–

PMI (flash)
– June –
mfg svc

Median Forecast 45.3 51.8
High forecast 51.5 52.0
Low forecast 43.9 45.0
Previous period 45.2 51.8
-
Number of responses 11 9
-
Barclays Cap. 43.9 46.0
Commerzbank 45.0 51.5
DZ Bank 44.8 n/a
ING 45.4 n/a
LBBW 46.0 52.0
Natixis 44.7 52.0
Soc. Generale 46.5 52.0
Standard Chartered 44.5 50.5
UBS 45.3 51.8
Unicredit 46.0 52.0
West LB 51.5 45.0
———————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 15.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

PMI (flash)
– June -
mfg svc

Median Forecast 44.1 45.0
High forecast 44.8 45.6
Low forecast 43.5 44.2
Previous period 44.7 45.1
-
Number of responses 9 9
-
Barclays Cap. 43.5 44.2
Commerzbank 44.1 44.7
DZ Bank 43.8 n/a
ING 44.0 44.5
Natixis 44.7 45.2
Soc. Generale 44.5 45.1
Standard Chartered 44.0 44.5
UBS 44.8 45.3
Unicredit n/a 45.6
West LB 44.5 45.0
———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, June 15.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Glad to see everyone’s on the same page

• Memorandum of understanding with Greece remains framework for discussion

Tweaked a few sell stops as well enroute to 1.0068, but EUR/AUD’s taking most of the pressure with a slip to  1.2538. Talk of some further sovereign buying interest towards 1.0050, but some sell stops lurk below there.

EUR/AUD has some tech support at Friday’s lows around 1.2528 ahead of stronger support down at 1.2470 which is the fibo 61.8%retracement  of the strong rally from Feb to May

EUR/USD slumps to 1.2655, testing buy orders we mentioned in orderboard at 1.2650/60.

We heard earlier sell stops through 1.2640.  Wouldn’t be surprised if there weren’t some through 1.2650 as well,  although no confirmation of such.

UPDATE:   Bank of Spain says Spanish bank’s bad loans rise to 8.72% in April from 8.37% in March

UPDATE:  Bank’s bad loans highest since April 1994

Feeling the weight of the EUR/USD, but finding some support around the earlier mentioned 55 day MA currently around 1.0091.

Bids from sovereigns ( Middle East were earlier buyers in AUD as well as EUR/USD) and real money are touted  down to 1.0080, with some sell stops just below ahead of  more bids 1.0050/60.

AUD’s sitting around 1.0090 after earlier session highs in Europe around 1.0124

EUR/USD sat at 1.2700.

More than three hours later and we’re at………..1.2700.

Hedge funds have been selling into rallies.

Middle Eastern sovereigns have been buying into dips.

Result……….impasse.

Market could do with a few juicy tape bombs to give it some momentum.

Personally I’d like to see the middle eastern sovereigns disappear. Would be nice to get a poll call right for a change.

BERLIN (MNI) – Spain may get the up to E100 billion in European aid
for its ailing banking sector from the temporary rescue fund EFSF in an
attempt to expand the availability of bailout resources, the German
daily Die Welt reported Monday, citing unnamed EU diplomats.

Using the EFSF to rescue Spain’s banking sector instead of the
permanent bailout fund ESM, which is to take effect in July, would
increase the joint volume of the two rescue funds by up to E100 billion,
the paper wrote.

The German government, though, is opposing this idea because it
would increase Germany’s share of the financing of the funds by some E27
billion, according to Die Welt. The paper cited the Finance Ministry as
saying that the aid for Spain must be booked under the ESM.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$S$$$,M$G$$$,MT$$$$]

NSS comment of the day….

Situation needs constant monitoring ,and urges EU states to make greater efforts to solve the debt crisis

–Japan May Department Store Sales -1.0% Y/Y Vs Apr +1.3%

TOKYO (MNI) – Department store sales in Japan fell 1.0% in May,
marking the first year-on-year drop in three months, hit by stormy
weather and fewer public holidays, data released by the Japan Department
Stores Association showed on Monday.

The decrease followed increases by 1.3% in April and 14.1% in
March, which were in a rebound from depressed sales of a year before,
when the earthquake disaster dampened national consumer confidence and
destroyed homes, offices and stores in northeastern Japan.

Rain storms during the Golden Week holidays and low temperatures in
the middle of May hurt overall sales, the association said.

In addition, there were two less public holidays last month
compared with a year earlier, which is estimated to have lowered
department store sales by 3 to 4 percentage points.

But sales of jewelry and other luxury items remained strong, up
3.4% on year in May, while some stores continued attracting visitors
from China and Taiwan who are returning to Japan after the Fukushima
nuclear meltdown scared them away last year.

The association compiles data from 86 companies running 249
department stores that have been open for at least a year prior to the
survey being conducted. The data are adjusted to facilitate comparisons
on a same-store basis.

In Tokyo, combined sales at 26 department stores increased 2.1% on
the year in May, thanks to new tourist spots in the capital and solid
demand for casual business clothing for the summer, posting the third
consecutive y/y gain after +6.7% in April and +26.7% in March.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

• Germany is ready to discuss time frame with Greece (well that’s good)
• Regarding eurobills proposal, Germany cannot take on all Europe’s debts

Moving up as London opens and heading for corporate offers in the 1.0130/50 region which stalled the early asian rally.  There’s good demand from real money sitting down around 1.0080 to mop up a sell-off.

EUR/AUD’s failure to break back above  1.2600 on the  risk rally following the Greek elections leaves the downside  again vulnerable  whilst below the 100 day MA around  1.2610.

AUD/USD’s around 1.0114 with EUR/AUD around 1.2570

EUR/USD sits at 1.2717.

What’ll we see first 1.26 or 1.28

Reasoning/s for choice as always appreciated, but not obligatory.

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s exports and industrial production are
expected to increase moderately in the coming months, the Bank of Japan
said in its monthly report on Monday, maintaining its economic outlook.

“Exports are expected to increase moderately as overseas economies
emerge from the deceleration phase,” it said, indicating that exports
have emerged from “the phase of flat growth” seen until last month.

Domestic demand will be supported by fiscal programs to rebuild the
northeastern region battered by the 2011 earthquake disaster, the BOJ
said, adding that business investment and profits will stay on a
moderate uptrend and consumer spending will remain firm.

“Reflecting these developments in demand at home and abroad,
production is expected to increase moderately,” it said, repeating its
earlier assessment.

At its two-day policy meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ board
maintained its easy policy and offered a slightly more upbeat view of
the economy.

“Japan’s economic activity has started picking up moderately as
domestic demand remains firm, mainly supported by reconstruction-related
demand,” it said, referring to a gradual recovery from major supply
chain breakdowns caused by the earthquake disaster and flooding in
Thailand as well as the yen’s rise to record highs last year.

But the BOJ sounded more cautious about counting on a recovery in
global demand for Japanese goods by dropping its long-held reference
that the economy should be “led by emerging and commodity-exporting
economies” in light of Chinese slowdown and softer energy and commodity
prices.

“As for the outlook, Japan’s economy is expected to return to a
moderate recovery path as domestic demand remains firm and overseas
economies emerge from the deceleration phase,” it said.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MMJBJ$,MAJDS$]

The Reserve Bank of India keeps Repo rate unchanged at 8% and reverse repo at 7%

Cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4.75%

RBI  stated it will continue to use open market operations as and when warranted

EUR/USD: Offers 1..2740/50. Bids 1.2650/60 sell stops through 1.2640

GBP/USD:  Offers 1.5730/50, 1.5780/00, bids 1.5650/60

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8110/15, large buy stops up through 0.8155 and 0.8170. Tech support 0.8050/55 and 0.8010/15

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.00/10 and layered down to 78.50. Tech lvl 78.75-200 day MA, Offers 79.45/55, 79.70/80 (sovereigns) and 79.90/80.10 (exporters),

EUR/JPY:  Offers 100.80/00, buy stops through 101.00, Bids 100.20/30 and 100.00/10, sell stops below

GBP/JPY: Buy stops through 125.00

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/35 buy stops through 1.2050

AUD/USD:  Corporate offers 1.0130/50, bids 1.0080/00 from real money, sovereigns (55 day MA @ 1.0091) , sell stops below 1.0080 and through 1.0050

AUD/JPY:  Offers 80.30/50, Tech res 80.70 (200 day MA), bids 79.50/60

EUR/AUD: Offers 1.2590/00 tech res 1.2610 (100 day MA). Tech supp 1.2470 61.8% of  rally from Feb-May.

NZD/USD:  Offers 0.7930/50, Bids 0.7880/00, sell stops through 0.7875 and 0.7850

• Troika must first check situation in Greece, further aid hinges on reforms
• On other hand it is clear Greece must not be pushed too much on reforms

Not too sure what to make of those comments. Started out tough and then kinda softened.

Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.

‘I write before knowing the outcome of Greece’s election. For what it is worth, I doubt that Greece will elect a manipulator who knows he cannot tear up the bailout Memorandum and keep the euro by holding Europe ransom’  (well AEP got that one right)