Talk that Real money names have been looking for offers in cable this morning after session lows of 1.5523 recently.

EUR/GBP’s  also finding some downside pressure after session highs of 0.8128, but earlier mentioned bids remain in place around 0.8095/00 from European names.

Cable’s sitting around  1.5555 with the cross around 0.8108

• Interest rate of 3-4% is ‘reasonable’
• EU loan shouldn’t affect deficit
• Spain shouldn’t use 100 bln if things done correctly
• Will be difficult for Spain to meet deficit goal
• Italy’s reforms have calmed nmarkets
• Eurostat decides how bailouinterest affects deficit
• EU loans get ‘special treatment’ in budget accounting (wink wink nudge nudge)

Bloomberg reporting.

There’s also some tech resistance sitting just above in the 1.0025/35 region and some offers up towards 1.0050. Bids are now seen 0.9960/70 and stronger towards 0.9940.

AUD’s  presently around 0.9978 after recent lows of 0.9960

“Reasonable?”

Have another go mate…….

• “Tremendous” oil supply surplus has led to “severe” price decline
• Sees Iraq’s oil exports rising to 2.9 mln bpd in 2013 from 2.4 mln now

Revised to -1.4% y/y from a preliminary -1.3 %

In recent trade. Exact levels not available, but we’re up at 1.2605 from session low 1.2589.

TV station SIC reports Portuguese PM Coelho as saying “there is no reason” to ask for new conditions for Portugal’s financial aid programme, adding “we will be attentive to see how the specific program for Spanish banks will be processed, and if there is any exceptional condition that should be shared with other countries that are under assistance I have no doubt that that will happen.”

Bloomberg reporting.

• Cyprus can secure favorable terms if bailout needed

EUR/USD sits forlornly at 1.2630, forex trading so far this morning as dismal as the weather outside

At least we’ve got the big game this evening to look forward to.  Engerland, Engerland, Engerland…….

FRANCE DATA: April industry output +1.5% m/m; March -1.0% m/m (-0.9%)
– Above expected; MNI analysts survey median forecast -0.8% m/m
– April industry output +1.2% vs 1Q avg; 1Q -0.3% q/q
– April mfg output -0.7% m/m after March +1.4% m/m
– See MNI MainWire for details

Much stronger from a revised -1.0% m/m in March

April Mfg Industrial output  falls to -0.7% m/m from +1.4% in March

• Timing of Spain aid yet undecided
• 100 bln cap should be enough
• EU will study roadmap out of crisis in summit
• EU (Troika) will monitor banks getting Spanish aid
• Spain banks that get funds must present restructuring plan
• EU needs fully supervised financial system

JAPAN DATA: Preliminary monthly data from the Japan Machine Tool
Builders’ Association:
– May machine tool orders -2.9% y/y at Y104.95 billion, marking
the first drop in three months after +0.4% in April.
– Orders from the domestic market, a leading indicator of core
machinery orders, +1.4% y/y, the 3rd straight rise after +3.0% in April.
– Orders from overseas, which account for about 70% of overall
orders, -4.7% y/y, the 5th straight drop after -0.8% in April.

Reuters’ headline.   No details as yet.

UPDATE:  Still no accompanying story.

EUR/USD sits at 1.2638, effectively unchanged on the day so far.

UPDATE:  Relates to a Moody’s note published June 8th ahead of weekend bailout news. Probably best to ignore.

Well with 1.2600 having been reached and breached (topside parameter for the June 8th poll) it’s time for another  EUR/USD poll.

We sit at 1.2645.  What’ll we see first 1.2550 or 1.2750?

Reasoning/s for choice always much welcomed, but not obligatory

– Japan May Consumer Confidence Index 40.7 Vs Apr 40.0
– Japan Consumer Confidence Index Posts 1st M/M Rise in 2 Mths
– Japan Govt Keeps View: Confidence Continues to Pick Up

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s consumer confidence index rose to the highest
level in 15 months in May as more people believed job security, income
growth and overall economic conditions would improve in the coming six
months, data released by the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.

The rebound came after the index marked the first month-on-month
drop in 12 months in April.

The closely watched index edged up to 40.7 in May from 40.0 in
April, hitting the best reading since February 2011, when it stood at
41.2 before the March earthquake disaster triggered a plunge in the
index.

The Cabinet Office maintained its assessment, saying, “Consumer
confidence continues to pick up.”

In May, all of the four sub-indexes — overall economic well-being,
labor conditions, income growth and the timing of buying durable goods
rose from the previous month.

The latest survey was conducted on May 15, covering 6,720
households, of which 5,033 responded.

In May, the labor conditions sub-index rose 1.1 points to 39.3
while the sub-index on income growth increased 0.5 points to 40.1, both
marking the highest since February 2011.

Meanwhile, the latest survey indicated a slip in consumer inflation
expectations.

The percentage of people forecasting higher prices in a year’s time
stood at 65.5% of the total on an unadjusted basis in May, down from
68.1% in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the percentage of people expecting lower prices 12
months ahead was at 6.7% last month, up from 5.8% in the previous month.

An annual inflation rate below 2% was forecast by 25.1% of those
surveyed in the latest month, up from 23.4% in the previous month.

Inflation in a range of 2% to 5% was forecast by 26.6% of the total
in the latest month versus 29.2% in the previous month.

Inflation at 5% or over was forecast by 13.8% of the total in the
latest month, down from 15.5% in the previous month.

Price drops of less than 2% were seen by 4.0% of the polled in the
latest month, up from 3.2% in the previous month.

Price drops in a range of 2% to 5% were forecast by 2.0% of those
surveyed in the latest month, up from 1.6% in the previous month.

The annual rate of price drops at 5% or over was foreseen by 0.7%
of the total in the latest month, down from 1.0% in the previous month.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$,MT$$$$]

EUR/USD:  Tech res 1.2665/70 ahead of buy stops through 1.2690 and again through 1.2700. Tech support 1.2620/25 and bids 1.2610/20 and 1.2580/90

GBP/USD:  Offers 1.5590/00. Tech support 1.5480/90 and 1.5450/60

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8155/60, Bids 0.8095/00

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.40/50, stronger from 79.20 down to 79.00. Offers 79.70/80 (sovereigns) and 79.90/10, buy stops just above. Tech res 80.21 (100 Day MA) and larger buy stops through 80.25.

EUR/JPY:  Offers 100.90/00, buy stops just above Tech res 101.80, tech support 100.30/35, Bids 100.00/10, sell stops just below ahead of Tech support 99.85 (21 day MA)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/35

USD/CHF:  Tech support 0.9465/70, res 0.9525/30, 0.9595/00

AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0000/10, tech res 1.0025/35 (1.0028- 50% 1.0475/0.9581), and 1.0040/50. Bids 0.9965/70 and 0/9940/50

AUD/JPY:  Offers 79.70/75, buy stops above and through 80.00

EUR/AUD:  Tech support 1.2600/05 and 1.2585/90

The weekend agreement to bailout Spain to the tune of E100 bln but without direct aid  to its banks is likely to be a big setback for Ireland’s campaign to ease the terms of its own bank rescue 

More in the Irish Times…

Financial bookies see FTSE opening up as much as +1.8%. DAX up as much as +2.6% and CAC 40 up as much as +2.1%.

Up from 40.0 in April

USD/JPY has traded marginally firmer in Asia against the general risk-on backdrop and with US treasury yields having firmed.  The benchmark 10 year is currently up at 1.7121% from Friday’s North American close down around 1.6336%.

USD/JPY presently at 79.60, having closed out last week down around 79.38.

Talk of sell orders clustered up at 79.90 through 80.10, with buy stops gathering through 80.25.  Buy orders reportedly clustered down at 79.00/20.

With the Sunday elections approaching in Greece, PASOK’s leader Venizelos and Democratic Left’s Kouvelis have boith presented plans  that they believe could form a unity governement in the event that there is  no clear majority …..

More .. - ekathimerini.com