Improvement from the -42.5 in July. Yipeeeeee!!!

In line with expectations

-SMMT: UK July Car Production Up 22.2% y/y; Up 15.1 Year-to-Date

LONDON (MNI) – UK car production posted another steep rise on the
year in July, with output up 22.2% and up 15.1% in the year-to-date.

Car production last year was hit by supply chain disruptions in the
wake of the March tsunami in Japan, driving up year-on-year comparisons
in recent months, but these latest data still show impressive growth.

Production for export in July was up 15.3% on the year and up
13.9% in the year-to-date while domestic output was up 57.4% and up
21.2% year-to-date.

“While uncertainty in Europe remains a challenge, the Stg6 billion
investment committed to the UK in the last two years delivers long-term
growth opportunities and the latest figures show that our products have
enormous global appeal,” Paul Everitt, SMMT Chief Executive, said.

Car production, however, has been a bright spot in a troubled UK
manufacturing sector. Manufacturing output has contracted in each of the
four quarters from Q3 last year according to the most recent GDP
figures.

–London newsroom: 4417 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com.

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$]

UK DATA: UK July car production +22.2% y/y: SMMT
- UK July car production +15.1% year to date

-Jul Retail Sales +0.3% m/m; +2.8% y/y; median -0.2% m/m; +1.4% y/y
-Jul Retail Sales ex fuel unch. m/m; 3.3% y/y; median -0.1% m/m;2.1% y/y
-Jun Retail Sales revised up sharply to 0.8% m/m from 0.1% m/m

LONDON (MNI) – Retail sales rose by more than expected in July and
a sharp upward revision to the June data suggests the downturn in the
second quarter was not quite as bad as first feared, figures from
National Statistics showed Thursday.

Taking into consideration the back revisions these figures are far
stronger than expected, although with sales only making up around 5% of
overall GDP they won’t have a great impact on the Q2 GDP figures. Nor is
it likely to change the view that the Bank of England could pump further
money into the economy to boost flagging growth.

Headline retail sales rose 0.3% on the month in July and were up
2.8% on the year, above the median for a monthly fall of 0.2% and
increase of 1.4% on the year.

Ex-fuel, which gives a better guide to the underlying strength on
the High Street, sales were unchanged on the month and up 3.3% on the
year. This was a little higher than the monthly median for a fall of
0.1% on the month and significantly above the yearly forecast of 2.1%.

Food store sales were up 0.4% on the month, while non-food sales
were down 0.5%. There were signifciant falls in clothing and footwear
and household goods stores of 1.8% and 1.5% on the month respectively,
following gains last month.

Department store sales rose 0.6% on the month while other stores
sales increased 0.8%. Non-store retailing and repair sales rose 1.4%.

Potentially more interesting than the latest month’s data were
massive revisions to the June figures. Headline sales were revised up to
0.8% on the month from an initially estimated 0.1%, while ex-fuel sales
rose 1.1% compared with the 0.3% reported last month.

Overall sales volumes are now estimated to have fallen by 0.3% on
the quarter in Q2, an upward revision from the previously reported 0.7%
fall.

Last month we wrote of poor weather killing off sales of barbeque
food, although food sales are now estimated to have risen 0.4% against
the earlier reported 0.7% fall.

National Statistics said that anecdotal evidence from retailers
suggested that the two days of the Olympics contained in the sample
period had no discernible impact on retail sales.

On a three monthly basis sales rose 0.9% compared with the previous
three months, the highest since January and sharply up from a fall of
0.4% last month, with the June data including the large April fall in
volumes.

-London bureau: +44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Jul Retail Sales +0.3% m/m; +2.8% y/y; median -0.2% / +1.4%
-Jul Retail Sales ex fuel unch. m/m; 3.3% y/y; median -0.1% m/m;2.1% y/y
-Jun Retail Sales revised up sharply to 0.8% m/m from 0.1% m/m
————————————————————————
Retail sales rose by more than expected in July and a sharp upward
revision to the June data suggests the Q2 downturn was not quite as bad
as first feared. Taking into consideration the back revisions these
figures are far stronger than expected, although with sales only making
up around 5% of overall GDP they won’t have a great impact on the Q2 GDP
figures. Nor is it likely to change the view that the Bank of England
could pump further money into the economy to boost flagging growth.
Headline retail sales rose 0.3% on the month in July and were up 2.8% on
the year, above the median for a monthly fall of 0.2% and increase of
1.4% on the year.

July sales (ex auto/fuel)  unchanged m/m and 3.3% y/y,  from +0.3% m/m and +2.2 y/y in June  (expectations were for -0.2%m/m and 2.0% y/y)

Sales for June inc. fuel have been adjusted up to +0.8% from  +0.1%

Cable getting a  lift on the  improved data  from 1.5680 but running into offers just above 1.5700

ONS: says no early signs of any benefit from the Olympics

Should at least dampen any thoughts of  further QE  in the short term

Appears there’s been some demand from an Asian central Bank which is currently propping up cable ahead of the July retail sales in 15 mins.

The low print so far has been 1.5636 and could be under threat should the data disappoint. The market consensus is for a m/m fall of 0.1% , although some analysts are looking for a rise of 0.2%

Offers sit up 1.5690/00 with initial support starting from 1,.5620 down to 1.5600.

GBP’s sitting around 1.5653

‘Even as clout in eurozone rises, Finns see countries that kept their currencies grow faster’

Dow Jones report.

Reminds me of the old adage; work smart, not hard.

Personally I don’t do either, but then that’s just me

Up from 6.3% in June.

Just another sign of the parlous state of the European economy.  Whoa, whoa and thrice whoa

Oh dear

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Greece must decide whether it is ready to
implement the necessary reforms that will allow it to stay in the
Eurozone, German Economy Minister Philip Roesler said in an article in
the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Thursday.

“Now Greece must decide whether the state and the society are ready
for necessary budget and structural reforms,” Roesler said, citing a
simplified tax system and visible progress in privatization efforts as
two key elements.

“I would be happy if Greece musters the necessary strength and
resolve. However, should the report of the troika of the European
Central Bank, the EU Commission and the International Monetary Fund show
in September that this is not the case, there can be no further
financial aid,” Roesler said.

“Especially in an environment of heated debate we must always keep
in mind: Europe has a price but at the same time, it has a general
value,” Roesler, who is a member of the government’s junior coalition
partner, wrote.

“Only those fighting for a competitive and strong Europe can
preserve this value,” Roesler said, arguing that Europe needs joint
values and rules to which all members adhere to. “The euro must not fail
because of Greece,” he said.

–Frankfurt bureau; +49-69-720142; jtreeck@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,MT$$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$G$$$,M$F$$$,M$$EC$]

And who am I to deny our readers’ wishes.

The last one had its’ lower 1.2280 parameter reached and breached yesterday, so the timing’s good.

So what’ll we see first 1.2150 or 1.2350?

That’s giving perspective euro bulls a 20 pip advantage. Can’t be fairer than that.

Reason/s for choice always welcome.

Gives me another glorious chance to get it round my neck

And gives Pete another chance to show us all just how adept he is at forex. He used to be a big swinging dick at a UK clearer back in the day, dontcha know.  Never tires of reminding me

A bunch of sell stops just got triggered on the break of Monday’s/yesterday’s 1.5657/60 lows as the  market jostles for position ahead of the  0830GMT retail sales release.

There’s another bunch of bids in the 1.5600/20 ahead of the 55 day moving average at 1.5589 and tech support 1.5570/80. Sell stops are in place on a break of 1.5570

Forecasts for the retail sales are ranging between -0.1 and +0.2% m/m after a June reading of +0.1%

EUR/USD:  Bids 1.2265/75, with weak stops just below ahead of larger bids down at 1.2240/50 (1.2242 strong Fibo supp), sell stops below. Offers start 1.2300/10, 1.2340/50 and 1.2380/00 (55 day MA 1.2395) buy stops through 1.2420 ahead of tech res 1.2440/45, likely buys stops above.

GBP/USD:   Offers 1.5700/10 (UK Clearers, funds ahead of 200 day MA 1.5718), possible buy stops through 1.5720 ahead of tech res 1.5760 (100 day MA 1.5754). Strong offers above ahead of a 1.5800 barrier. Bids 1.5650/60 (tech supp Mon low 1.5657), weak sell stops through 1.5640 ahead of bids 1.5600/20 and 1.5570/80 with sell stops below

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.7840/50 and 0.7890/00.  Bids 0.7825/35 sell stops below ahead of more bids 0.7800/10

USD/JPY:  Offers 79.30/50 (exporters), buy stops through 79.50 ahead of offers 79.80/00 and larger buy stops above. Bids 78.80/90 with sell stops through 78.75

EUR/JPY: Sell stops on a break of 97.00, but bids  down at 96.80/90, sell stops below ahead of further bids 96.55/65 and 96.00/10, sell stops below. Offers and 97.40/50 and 97.75/85

AUD/JPY: Strong bids 82.90/00, stronger at 82.50/60 sell stops below and again through 82.00. Offers 83.30/40 and 83.90/00

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30

AUD/USD:  Bids 1.0475/85 and  larger down at 1.0450/60, sell stops through 1.0440, 1.0420 and 1.0400 ahead of good tech support 1.0380/90. Strong offers start from 1.0520 up to 1.0550

EUR/AUD:  Offers 1.1730/40 and tech res 1.1790/95 a break above targeting 1.1850. Bids 1.1680/90 and 1.1650/55 ahead of all time lows towards 1.1600

NZD/USD:  Strong offers 0.8100/10 and 0.8130/40. Bids 0.8040/50 possible sell stops below through 0.8035 and psychological 0.8000 level

US treasury yields have firmed further in Asia.

Benchmark 10 year treasury yield closed out Wednesday in North America down around 1.8172%.

Stood at 1.8485% when I first sat down and is presently 1.8572%

This action is helping support USD/JPY which is presently up at 79.32.

Talk of more buy stops gathered through 79.50.

WSJ

Der Spiegel