• Greece can’t get more aid if agreement not kept
• Greece unable to meet privatisation demands
• Greece has failed to cut costs, wages
• Up to Greece to decide on its euro membership
• Doubts German lawmakers would back third Greece package

Yada, yada, yada…….

German MEP Chatzimarkakis? Are you shittin me.

- But Detects Underlying Sense Of Confidence As Inflation Eases
- Comments Made To Birmingham Post
- Remarks In Line With Other Recent Communications

LONDON (MNI) – The UK economy is not so much in a recession as in a
‘sustained period of stagnation’, according to Bank of England Monetary
Policy Committee Member Martin Weale.

In comments to the Birmingham Post and Mail during a regional
visit, Weale said he detected an ‘underlying sense of confidence’ among
UK consumers and said a long squeeze on household incomes was coming to
an end as inflation started to ease back.

“For quite a long period now, we have had slight upward movement,
and slight downward movement. Rather than describe it as a double-dip
recession, I would describe it as a sustained period of stagnation”.

The comments are in line with other recent communications from the
BOE MPC. The committee clearly takes the view that the sharp fall in
growth seen in Q2 data was overstated but that the underlying trend in
growth remains close to flat.

Minutes of the August meeting of the MPC showed most of the
committee wanting to monitor the impact of a new plan to boost bank
lending (the Funding for Lending Scheme) over the next few months before
taking any additional stimulus steps.

–London Bureau +20 7862 7499; ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$$FI$,M$$BE$]

EMU DATA: June direct+portfolio inflow E29.0bn; May inflow E36.6bn
– EMU June direct invest outflow E30.6bn; May inflow E9.9bn
– EMU June portfolio invest inflow E59.7bn; May inflow E26.7bn
– EMU June equity invest inflow E34.2bn; May inflow E6.0bn
– EMU June bond/note invest inflow E30.8bn; May inflow E13.7bn
– EMU June money mkt invest outflow E5.4bn; May inflow E7.0bn
– EMU June sa current acct +E12.7bn; May +E10.3bn(+E10.9bn)
– EMU June sa goods trade bal.+E12.8bn; May +E8.2bn(+E8.9bn)
– EMU June nsa current acct +E15.7bn; May -E3.2bn(-E2.5bn)
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

June non-adjusted balance rose to Eur 15.7 bln  from Eur -3.2 bln in May

From 8.95% in May according to the Bk of Spain

For all you ‘Spread heads’ out there … some interesting reading on the losses the ECB could amass as a result of bond purchases

FT Alphaville picked this up from Francesco Garzarelli of Goldman Sachs

LONDON (MNI) – The UK economy is not so much in a recession as in a
‘sustained period of stagnation’, according to Bank of England Monetary
Policy Committee Member Martin Weale.

In comments to the Birmingham Post and Mail during a regional
visit, Weale said he detected an ‘underlying sense of confidence’ among
UK consumers and said a long squeeze on household incomes was
coming to an end as inflation started to ease back.

“For quite a long period now, we have had slight upward movement,
and slight downward movement. Rather than describe it as a double-dip
recession, I would describe it as a sustained period of stagnation”.

–London Bureau +20 7862 7499; ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$$FI$,M$$BE$]

I want to see USD/JPY having reached at least 79.50!!

DO NOT DISAPPOINT ME.

• There is a lack of trust among member states
• Working on making sure countries are sticking to commitments
• Working on long-term rules so current problems aren’t repeated
• Talk of eurozone breakup is playing with fire
• Expect everyone to abide by the agreed rules
• Patience is not running out, we’re trying to help everyone (ahhhh, those lovable Finns)

Sell stops were just triggered down through the 1.0445 level as AUD slips to days lows of 1.0435.

Talk in the market also that a UK clearer may have been behind the early move lower , along with earlier mentioned EUR/AUD buying

AUD’s sitting around 1.0443, with further bids waiting below now down at 1.0400/10

Has zoomed up to 1.1845 at writing.

Well Peter Perfect did warn ya…..

Man’s a legend in his own mind

Hooooooray!!

• Stubb says Foreign Minister’s speculation on euro breakup does not reflect govt position (he’s been taken out and fed to the bears)
• Finland seeks tighter euro area budget discipline to ensure currency’s future (you can never have too much discipline is what I say)

EUR/AUD’s on the march higher , let’s see if it breaks those July 27 highs around 1.1856.

We’re around 1.1830 having just popped up tohighs around  1.1840, and a break through 1.1856 points to  the 1.1925/30 area 

AUD/USD’s resultingly soggy around 1.0450 but so far failing to trip the reported stops down through 1.0445

– See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

The July trade balance will show a deficit for the first time in
two months on slower global demand as well as continued high imports of
oil and gas, which have been used to make up for the sharply reduced
nuclear power generation.

July exports are forecast to have fallen 3.0% on year, posting the
second consecutive drop after -2.3% in June and +10.0% in May, on lower
shipments of computer parts, ships and non-ferrous metal products.

July imports are expected to show a 3.2% gain, the first rise in
two months after -2.2% in June and +9.3% in May, led by liquefied
natural gas, mobile phones and aircraft.

For the current fiscal year, economists expect Japan to post a
trade deficit worth Y3.43 trillion following the Y4.42 trillion deficit
in fiscal 2011, according to the latest monthly survey by the Japan
Center for Economic Research.

Wednesday, Aug. 22, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Tuesday): The Ministry of
Finance releases July trade data.

Forecast: A deficit worth Y300.0 billion, posting the first deficit
in two months, after a surplus of Y60.3 billion in June and a deficit of
Y910.4 billion in May; exports -3.0% y/y vs. -2.3% in June; imports
+3.2% y/y vs. -2.2% in June.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

EUR/USD:  Bids 1.2340/50, 1.2300/10, sell stops just below through 1.2290 ahead of larger bids down at 1.2240/60, (1.2242 strong Fibo supp), sell stops below. Offers start 1.2380/00 (55 day MA 1.2395) buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.2440/45,  buys stops above 1.2450

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.5690/1.5710 possible sell stops through 1.5685 more bids 1.5650/60 (tech supp Mon low 1.5657), weak sell stops through 1.5640.  Offers 1.5740/55, (tech res 100 day MA 1.5752).  Strong offers above ahead of 1.5800 (barrier?).

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.7880/90.  Bids0.7840/50 and 0.7800/10, likely sell stops below.

USD/JPY:  Offers 79.40/50 (exporters), buy stops through 79.50 ahead of tech res 79.65 (100 day MA) and offers 79.80/00. Larger buy stops above. Bids 79.00/10 (79.05 -55 day MA) sell stops through 78.90 ahead of more bids 78.50/60 with sell stops below.

EUR/JPY: Bids 97.85/95 and  97.50/60 sell stops below More bids down at 97.00/10, sell stops below. Offers and 98.40/50 and 98.90/00

AUD/JPY: Strong bids 82.90/00, stronger at 82.50/60 sell stops below and again through 82.00. Offers 83.40/50 and 83.90/00

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30

AUD/USD:  Bids 1.0450/60 (sovereigns, real money), sell stops through 1.0445, more bids 1.0400/10, and good tech support 1.0380/90. Strong offers start from 1.0500/10 and 1.0530/50

EUR/AUD:  Offers 1.1790/1.1810 buy stops through 1.1815 a break above targeting 1.1856 (Jul 27 highs). Bids 1.1740/50 and 1.1690/00

NZD/USD:  Strong offers 0.81.20/30 some buy stops above. Tech support 0.8080/85, sell stops below ahead of  bids 0.8040/50 possible sell stops below through 0.8035 and psychological 0.8000 level

Yer, but everyone hates Sarkozy

Yes that’s the smell of success folks.

79.50 in USD/JPY is within touching distance.

I’m getting really excited.

Today could be historic.

Historic in as much as I finally get a poll choice correct.

If there are any really large USD/JPY traders tuned in, can you please buy a coupla billion dollars just so as I can finish the week on a happy note.

Thankyou

Reports have Japanese exporter offers clustered 79.40/50.

Now if they can just be removed, that’ll make things a little easier.

Thankyou

GERMANY DATA: July PPI unch m/m, +0.9% y/y; June +1.6% y/y; May +2.1%
– Germany July PPI below MNI median forecast (+0.5%/+1.4%)
– Germany July PPI ex-energy -0.2% m/m, +0.6% y/y; June +1.0% y/y
– Germany July PPI ex-petroleum products unch m/m, +0.8% y/y
– Germany July PPI energy +0.4% m/m, +1.3% y/y; June -1.4%/+2.8%
– Germany July PPI cap goods +0.1% m/m, +1.1% y/y; June +1.1% y/y
– Germany July PPI cons goods -0.1% m/m, +1.8% y/y; June +2.1% y/y
– Germany July PPI basic goods -0.3% m/m, -0.3% y/y;June +0.1% y/y
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

Does anyone care?

I think not.