Release For: Q2 2012
Source: U.K. Office for National Statistics
Contributions to growth, quarter-on-quarter, percentage points

Q1 Q2
2012 2012

Component

Final Consumption Expenditure:
Households -0.1 -0.3
NPISH (non-profit institutions) 0.0 0.1
General government 0.4 0.0

Gross Fixed Capital -0.3 0.7
of which Gross Fixed Capital Formation 0.3 -0.5
of which business investment 0.2 -0.1
Exports -0.5 -0.5
less imports -0.1 0.5
Net trade -0.4 -1.0

For further information, contact drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]

Release For: Q2 2012
Source: U.K. Office for National Statistics
Percent changes, seasonally adjusted

Percent changes:
qtr/qtr yr/yr

Chain volume GDP -0.5 -0.5
Implied GDP deflator at mark 0.8 2.5

Final Consumption Expenditure:
Households -0.4 -0.8
Genl Govt Final Consumption 0.0 2.6
Gross Capital Formation:
Gross Fixed Capital -3.2 -1.2
Change in Inventories 2626 GBP Mln
Of which alignment adjustment 1435
Total Domestic Expenditure 0.5 0.2
Compensation of Employees 1.8 4.7

Agriculture, Forestry, Fish -2.6 -7.1

Production Industries:
Mining, quarrying inc oil -4.4 -10.5
Manufacturing -0.9 -2.6
Electricity, gas 5.6 4.5
Total -0.9 -2.8

Construction -3.9 -8.6

Services Industries:
Distrib., Hotels, Catering -0.1 0.0
Transport, Communication -0.7 0.7
Business svcs, finance -0.1 0.6
Government, other 0.3 1.3
Total -0.1 0.7

For further information, contact David Robinson at
drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]

-Q2 GDP revised up to -0.5% q/q; -0.5% y/y from -0.7% q/q; -0.8% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – UK economic growth was revised higher as expected in
the second quarter but a fall in household spending and a large impact
from falling exports underlines just how fragile the economy.

While growth will have been hit by the impact of the Jubilee and
poor weather over the quarter, stripping out these effects likely still
leaves growth only around flat. The upward revision puts the data
in-line with the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report which had
pointed to slightly stronger growth than National Statistics first
suggested.

GDP was revised up to show a fall of 0.5% on both the quarter and
the year, broadly in line with the median forecast. The upward
adjustment was well flagged by earlier revisions to both the
construction and industrial production data, both of which were revised
upwards from their initial estimates.

Looking at the expenditure breakdown was never going to be pretty
given the overall fall in GDP. The largest drag on growth came from net
exports which cut quarterly GDP growth by 1 percentage point, the
largest drag on growth from the external sector since Q2 1998. Fewer
working days due to the Jubilee won’t have helped here although this
probably doesn’t account for all the negative impact.

With household income being squeezed the hopes of growth stem from
the external sector, but renewed pressure on the Eurozone and the recent
appreciation in sterling suggests the boost from exports may not come
any time soon.

Household spending fell 0.4% on the quarter in Q2 and was down 0.8%
on the year. Again the Jubilee and poor weather could be to blame here.

Business investment was down 1.5% on the quarter, cutting GDP
quarterly growth by 0.1 percentage point.

The only major upward impact on GDP came from restocking with
inventories rising sharply in Q2. Excluding the alignment adjustment
these added 0.5 percentage point to GDP growth, the most since Q3 2011.
This seems likely to be due to weaker demand than expected rather than
pointing to firms expecting to see future demand increasing.

On an output basis, services growth remained unchanged to show a
fall of 0.1% on the quarter. Construction was revised up to show a fall
of 3.9% on the quarter from an initially estimated 5.2% drop.

Industrial production fell 0.9% on the quarter, in contrast to the
initially estimated 1.3% fall.

In its August Inflation Report, the Bank of England forecast growth
in Q3 to bounceback by around 1% in Q3, but revised down overall GDP
growth for the year to around flat. It had previously said it expected
special factors to hit Q2 growth by around 0.5 percentage point.

–London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]

UK DATA: Q2 GDP revised up to -0.5% q/q; -0.5% y/y; in line with median
————————————————————————
UK economic growth was revised higher as expected in the second quarter
but a fall in household spending and a large impact from falling exports
underlines just how fragile the economy is. The revision was in line
with BOE thinking and from this perspective implies no change to the
rate outlook. Construction and industrial production were the reason for
the up revision. Looking at the expenditure breakdown, the largest drag
on growth came from net exports which cut q/q GDP by 1pp, the largest
drag from the external sector since Q2 1998. Fewer working days due to
the Jubilee won’t have helped here although this probably doesn’t
account for all the negative impact here. Household spending fell 0.4%
on the quarter in Q2 and down 0.8% on the year. Again the Jubilee and
poor weather could be to blame here. Overall, as expected but still poor
with the special factors meaning we’ll see some bounceback in Q3.

Reuters reporting.

EUR/USD sits at 1.2540, pretty much comatose.

Put a fork in it, we’re done

Let the loooooong weekend begin…….

In line with Reuter’s median forecast

Improvement from -0.7% first estimate, but still biggest q/q fall since Q1 2009.

–Tells Paper That He Sees No Need For More Stimulus At Moment

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member
Martin Weale says that he would prefer cutting rates to more
quantitative easing so long as such a move didn’t impact on the banks.

Weale made the comments to the Glasgow Herald, a day after an
interview with a French newspaper was published in which he said that a
cut might have ‘perverse effects’ and could harm the position of certain
banks.

However, Weale reiterated that at present he did not see a need
for further monetary stimulus:

“At the moment, I don’t think I do … I think the right thing in
my job is to look at the situation each month.”

But Weale made clear to the Herald that the MPC will continue to
review the case for a rate cut:

“I think, if it were clear that the interest rate could be reduced
… without finding some banks got themselves into a position where they
had to reduce lending because of the effects of an interest rate cut on
their profits (and) if it were clear a reduction in interest rates would
be like all other reductions in the interest rate, I think I would
probably prefer that to more QE, if I was choosing between them.”

However, he added: “I certainly, and I would imagine my colleagues,
would want to be very clear an interest (rate cut was the) right thing
to do before we did it.”

Weale’s comments follow those of BOE Governor Mervyn King who said
at a recent press conference that cutting Bank Rate could undermine the
position of certain building societies and would not be likely, in any
case, to have a major stimulus effect.

–London Bureau +20 7862 7492; dthomas@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$$FI$,M$$BE$]

A reliable source tells me some hedge fund buyers in the AUD/USD have been seen  in recent trade as well as some profit taking from model accounts in EUR/AUD

AUD’/USD’s off the recent lows of 1.0378 at around 1.0392, and the cross at 1.2065 after  highs around 1.2071 earlier in the session

• Need to look at rate cut effect on banks first

Interviewed in Glasgow Herald (see you Jimmy)

Greek PM Samaras made a surprise announcement to France’s Le Monde newspaper that Greece was ready to put some of its uninhabited islands up for sale…  more

Business Insider

We sit at 1.0380.

What’ll we see first, 1.0280 or 1.0480?

Reason/s for choice always welcome, but not obligatory….

Congratulations to all those that went for 1.0400

Up in 1.2545/50 area apparently.

We’ve slipped to 1.2535 at writing.

As mentioned in earlier orderboard, buy orders seen clustered 1.2520/30, sell stops below there.

Am i getting a bit cynical…

• BOJ has been conducting powerful easing
• Well aware a strong yen hurts Japan’s economy
• Important the Yen moves in line with fundamentals
• Effect of loose policies will become clearer
• CPI likely to achieve 1% goal before too long
• Europe is biggest concern for Japan

And then i lost the will to live ….zzzzzzzzzz

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by MNI.

July industrial output, a coincident indicator of the economy, is
forecast to post a second straight month-to-month rise thanks to
expected gains in the output of semiconductors, information and
communication machinery and general machinery.

Economists warn that output may lose traction in the face of slower
global demand and due to an expected end this month to government
subsidies for buying low-emission vehicles, which have supported factory
production as well as retail sales and household spending.

The Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry revised down its
assessment last month, saying, “Industrial production appears to be
flat.”

On the price front, national core CPI (excluding perishables) in
July is expected to show the largest year-on-year drop since -0.7% in
March 2011 as lower gasoline prices appear to have more than offset
higher electricity charges.

The average price of regular gasoline in Japan fell 6.3% on year in
mid-July, with the pace of decline accelerating from -2.4% in mid-June.

Thursday, Aug. 30, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases July retail sales.

Forecast: -0.3% y/y in July, which would be the first fall in eight
months after +0.2% in June and +3.6% in May.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the consumer price index.

Forecast: -0.3% y/y in July national core CPI, a third straight y/y
fall after -0.2% in June; August central Tokyo core CPI -0.6% y/y vs.
-0.6% in July.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the unemployment rate and
the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare releases the ratio of job
offers to job seekers, both for July.

Forecast: Unemployment 4.3%, unchanged from June; the job offers
index 0.83 (83 job offers for every 100 people looking for work), up
from 0.82 in June and staying at the highest level since 0.83 in
September 2008.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases July household spending.

Forecast: +0.8% y/y in real terms, which would be a sixth straight
monthly rise after +1.6% in June and +4.0% in May.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases July industrial output.

Forecast: +1.7% m/m, which would be a second straight monthly rise
after +0.4% in June and -3.4% in May but weaker than METI’s forecast for
+4.5%.

Friday, Aug. 31, 1400 JST (0500 GMT): The Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism releases July housing starts.

Forecast: -9.5% y/y, in payback for a robust 21.2% gain in July
2011 and marking a second straight monthly fall after -0.2% in June and
+9.3% in May; a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 879,000 units, up
from 837,000 in June but down from 903,000 in May.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

Sharply up on a monthly basis from the -0.5% fall in June  and marginally higher on the y/y from +2.5%

Is there no stopping the man?

Remember the August 21  AUD/USD poll with the  1.0400/10600 parameters, with ya man turning bearish the ozzie for the first time in living memory and plumping for 1.0400 first  ;)

We’re sooo close he can taste it!!!

Gee, really hope I haven’t put the kibosh on it I  kinda doubt it somehow.

There’s been talk of a suggested barrier down at 1.0400 but i can’t confirm. A host of people are apparently paying for AUD in the 1.0400/10 window ( sovereigns, real money , corporates and exporters) but the pressure is on again with a recent August  low of 1.0405  after bids around 1.0440 gave way.

Sell stops are said to be placed on a break of 1.0380

AUD’s currently trading around 1.0414

‘The strains of success start to tell’

• Greek exit would be no problem for the euro

See ya……….