EUR/USD is on the move (I use the term loosely) Or it cud be the fact I haven’t had a drink for three days

We’re up at session high 1.2479!!!

Defensive sell orders ahead of 1.2500 barrier interest now loom large!!! at 1.2480/00.

Will they prove durable?

Personally given my recent poll choice I hope not.  But should be quite a struggle methinks.

I’d hazard a guess, but no confirmation, that China is the name with 1.20-1.25 dnt interest.

Also offer interest from that Dutch bank (puppy who acts on behalf of SNB) said to be in place circa  1.2480.

Let battle commence

We sit at 1.2474, up exactly 6 pips since I sat down.  It’s all go!!!  

Getting reports of light sell stops now lining up through 1.2440.

Sell orders well-documented up at 1.2480/00 ahead of 1.2500 barrier option interest.

Buy stops reported through both 1.2500 and 1.2510 (whats 10 pips between friends) I like 1.2510 betta.

Sell orders then clustered 1.2540/50  ahead of more barrier option interest at 1.2550.

Just popped the 1.58 level again to a high of 1.5818 tripping some buy stops enroute through 1.5810. Talk in the street of a US bank behind the drive higher. Next target on the topside is the May 22 highs of 1.5849, but there are reports of some buy stops in between through 1.5830.  

GBP/USD’s currently around 1.5808

PARIS (MNI) – France will meet its public deficit target of 3% of
GDP next year, even if growth is weaker than the current forecast of
1.2%, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said Wednesday.

Economic growth “cannot be decreed,” Ayrault conceded in a radio
interview. “We will adapt according to developments” on both the revenue
and spending fronts.

Economic growth is also an issue for the Eurozone, where France has
not yet obtained all the measures it had hoped for and more work needs
to be done, the prime minister said, noting that the future of monetary
union will be on the agenda of the discussion President Francois
Hollande will have with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday.

The European Central Bank must “if necessary play its full role” as
well, he added.

A bill for the ratification of the EU fiscal compact will be
submitted to the cabinet on September 19, Ayrault said. Asked about
sceptics on the left wing of the Socialist Party, he said dissention was
“not possible.”

The prime minister did not rule out a hike in the broad-based CSG
tax on earnings and investment revenues next year, but he insisted that
this would be in the context of a reform of payroll taxes to reduce
labor costs.

A study on how to boost the competitiveness of domestic producers,
to be completed in October, is likely to reveal a need for more
investment in research and innovation but also a problem of labor costs,
he said.

The question of whether payroll charges alone should finance
pensions, health care and family assistance will be debated with unions
and employers, and the government will launch a reform in the first
quarter of next year, Ayrault said. “The debate is open and, I say, it
will be decided.”

The issue of competitiveness is closely linked to France’s E70
billion trade shortfall, of which E45 billion is due to the energy
deficit, the prime minister said. The remaining E25 billion gap must be
eliminated over the next five years, he said.

Ayrault said his government would tackle the problem of rising
petrol costs not via a cap on prices at the gas pump but rather through
fiscal measures, since a three-month freeze would be useless if prices
started climbing again afterwards.

While the current rise in petrol prices is due to the depreciation
of the euro and instability in oil producing countries, there is also a
longer-term upward trend that must be addressed with “alternative
solutions” like the expansion of public transportation and the
development of hybrid and electric autos, he argued.

A 25% hike in the upper limit on individual deposits in the popular
tax-free savings plan Livret A will be discussed at today’s cabinet
meeting along with the idea of a 100% increase in the ceiling for the
comparable Livret for Long-Term Development from E6,000 to E12,000, the
prime minister said.

The Livret A hike will help finance urban renewal and the
construction of 150,000 social housing units per year, while the
resources from the Livret for development are earmarked for small
business, he explained.

During his election campaign, Hollande had pledged to double the
ceiling for the Livret A, now at E15,300. Ayrault said the remaining
increase would come “according to needs.”

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: ssandelius@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$F$$$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$]

-Tells BBC Hardtalk That More Should Be Done Going Around Banks
-Says UK Econ Is In State Of Poor Growth, Stagnation

LONDON (MNI) – There is not very much of a distinction between
cutting interest rates and doing more quantitative easing (QE), says
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Adam Posen.

In an interview with BBC Hardtalk, Posen said that the UK economy
was in a “state of poor growth, stagnation – we could be doing better
with the potential we’ve got.”

The UK economy is “not growing as fast as it “normally would when
coming out of recession,” Posen said.

Posen said that he was leaving the MPC with a “sense of sadness, we
weren’t able to do better” and reiterated a number of ways in which the
BOE could have taken more radical steps to stimulate the economy.

“We didn’t live up to what we could have done,” Posen told the BBC.

While the latest announced scheme to boost lending, the ‘Funding
for Lending Scheme’ was a “step in the right direction”, Posen said that
the BOE should try and do more stimulus “going around the banking
system”.

Buying private sector debt and issuing bonds to finance
construction projects were among the ways in which the BOE could have
been more bold in tackling the economic crisis.

Going beyond buying gilts, Posen said that the BOE should have
bought “private sector debt, bundles of private sector debt, securitised
debt, special bonds to finance construction or infrastructure…”

Posen also lamented that fiscal austerity in the UK had such
predictable adverse short-term effects on employment, consumption and
investment.

The official insisted that he was not leaving the MPC because he
was “frustrated” but because he had got a job offer he “couldn’t
refuse”.

Posen, who’s term on the MPC expires at the end of this month, is
set to become the president of the Washington-based Peterson Institute.

Turning to the euro zone crisis, Posen conceded that if the crisis
were to get worse or if the euro zone were to break up, “it would
overwhelm the UK economy in ways we can’t do much about”.

–London newsroom: 4420 7 862 7492; email: dthomas@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MABPR$,MT$$$$]

Commentary: Louis Bacon is wrong: There will be a Soros or Paulson

Nice man even gives a few trade ideas

Evan Schnidman sees a firmer euro as German political leaders look like to support ECB’s Draghi plan…..here’s why..

( Seeking Alpha )

–Tells BBC Hardtalk That More Should Be Done Going Around Banks
–Says UK Econ Is In State Of Poor Growth, Stagnation

LONDON (MNI) – There is not very much of a distinction between
cutting interest rates and doing more quantitative easing (QE), says
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Adam Posen.

In an interview with BBC Hardtalk, Posen said that the UK economy
was in a “state of poor growth, stagnation – we could be doing better
with the potential we’ve got.”

The UK economy is “not growing as fast as it “normally would when
coming out of recession,” Posen said.

Posen said that he was leaving the MPC with a “sense of sadness, we
weren’t able to do better” and reiterated a number of ways in which the
BOE could have taken more radical steps to stimulate the economy.

“We didn’t live up to what we could have done,” Posen told the BBC.

While the latest announced scheme to boost lending, the ‘Funding
for Lending Scheme’ was a “step in the right direction”, Posen said that
the BOE should try and do more stimulus “going around the banking
system”.

Buying private sector debt and issuing bonds to finance
construction projects were among the ways in which the BOE could have
been more bold in tackling the economic crisis, he said.

–London newsroom: 4420 7 862 7492; email: wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MABPR$,MT$$$$]

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s output gap, indicating the degree of
oversupply and slack demand, narrowed to -1.8%, or about Y10 trillion,
in the April-June quarter, showing a slight improvement from a reading
of -2.0% in the January-March period, the Cabinet Office said on
Wednesday.

The latest figure showed the smallest output gap since -0.8% marked
in Q3 2008.

The negative output gap narrows when gross domestic product rises
above the economy’s potential growth rate, estimated by the Bank of
Japan to be around 0.5%.

Japan’s economy expanded a real 1.4% at an annualized rate in the
second quarter of 2012, posting gains for four quarters in a row, after
+5.5% in Q1 and +0.3% in Q4 2011.

The output gap is believed to influence consumer prices with a lag
of six to 12 months.

Japan’s output gap has been improving gradually after hitting the
recent bottom of -7.9% in Q1 2009 at the height of the global financial
crisis.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

I didn’t know this until 10 minutes ago.

It’s almost worth a Forexlive t-shirt for the first right answer, but not quite 

Yesterday’s reverse repo operation of 220 billion yuan was a record daily high, has significantly bettered market expectations, and as the Chinese securities Journal reports, has dampened expectations of a fresh RRR cut from the PBOC

More…. Xinhua News

- Adds Comments On New Haircut, Greek Euro-Exit

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Greece is asking for more time and not for more
money, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras told German daily Bild
Zeitung in an interview published Wednesday, shortly before his visit to
Berlin on Friday.

“Let me be very clear: We are not asking for additional money. We
stick to our commitments and to meeting all requirements [of the bailout
program],” Samaras told the tabloid.

“We must stimulate growth because this will reduce financial gaps.
All that we want is a little breathing space to get the economy going
quickly and to increase public revenues,” he said. “More time does not
automatically mean more money.”

Germany has signalled that it is ready to make some concessions on
the timing of specific requirements but only within the currently agreed
timeframe of 2015. In contrast to Samaras, Germany argues that more time
means more money.

Asked whether an additional haircut on Greece debt may be
necessary, Samaras said: “This was never discussed.”

Samaras promised that Greece will soon have “a smaller healthier
and significantly more efficient” public sector. “I have decided that
for every 10 public servants going into retirement, we will only hire
one new one.” Samaras also promised further tax and labor market reforms
to boost the country’s competitiveness.

The Greek prime minister called for more solidarity from Eurozone
partners. “We must escape this negative psychology that is like a deep
black hole,” he said. “We are progressing with structural reforms and
privatization. And it is not fair when some in Europe keep want to push
us back into that hole.”

“Greeks and Germans have much in common – we too can turn a
tragedy into a success story,” Samaras said.

He warned of catastrophic consequences should Greece be forced to
abandon the euro. “The Greek standard of leaving fell by about 35% over
the past three years. A return to the drachme would make drop
immediately by another 70%. Which society, which democracy could survive
that. In the end, it would be like in the Weimarer Republic,” Samaras
said.

The Bild Zeitung said it will publish a second part of its
interview with the Greek prime minister on Thursday.

–Frankfurt bureau tel.: +49-69-720142. email: jtreeck@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$$EC$,MFX$$$]

There are some bloody big sell orders lined up just ahead of 1.2500

For instance, heard of just one bank alone with a yard to go up there.

Anyone asks me what a yard is will be banned from this site

EUR/USD:  Bids, 1.2420/30, sell stops below. Tech supp 1.2390/00 (55 day MA- 1.2390). Offers  1.2480/00 ahead of a barrier at 1.2500 (part of a 1.20/25 DNT), also talk of SNB related offers from supranationals.

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.5745/55 (1.5746 100 day MA) and 1.5700/10, sell stops just below.  Strong offers 1.5800/10possible buy stops just above  ahead of tech res 1.5845/50 (22 May high 1.5849)

EUR/GBP: Strong offers 0.7900/10 and larger up at 0.7950/60.  Bids 0.7875/85 and 0.7850/60, likely sell stops just below

USD/JPY:  Offers 79.40/50 (exporters) also tech res 79.56 -100 day MA. More offers 79.80/00 and large buy stops above. Bids 79.00/10 (55 day MA 79.09) , sell stops through 78.95

EUR/JPY: Sell stops on a break of bids at 98. 50/60, sell stops through 98.45, more bids 98.00/10 sell stops below. Large offers 99.00/20 probable buy stops above ahead of major tech res 99.80/00( 100.00 Ichimoku cloud top)

AUD/JPY:  Bids 82.70/80 stronger at 82.50/60 sell stops below and again through 82.20. Offers 83.40/50 buy stops just above through 83.60

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops up through 1.2040

AUD/USD:  Bids 1.0400/10(sovereigns, real money) and good tech support below 1.0380/90. Offers 1.0480/00 (RBA commercial) and 1.0530/50

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.1885/95, tech supp 1.1856 (Jul 27 highs).  Tech res 1.1960/65, offers /tech res 1.1990/00.

NZD/USD:  Strong offers 0.8130/40 buy stops above. Some tech support /bids 0.8040/50, sell stops below through 0.8035 and psychological 0.8000 level.

Financial bookies see FTSE opening down around -0.8%, DAX and CAC 40 both down around -0.7%.

AUD/USD down at session low 1.0435 (which just happens to be yesterday’s low, for what that’s worth)

Not helped by release of BHP Billiton results.

The miner has posted a 35% fall in H2 profits.

The company’s results are one of the top indicators for the Australian economy, apparently

I think Adam posted this yesterday.    But just incase ya missed it.

No it means more time. D’oh……

– Japan July Supermarket Sales -4.9% Y/Y Vs June -3.9%
– Supermarket Sales Post 5th Straight Drop on Low Temperatures

TOKYO (MNI) – Sales at supermarkets in Japan open for at least a
year fell 4.9% in July from a year earlier to Y1.060 trillion, posting
the fifth straight y/y drop after -3.9% in June, due to the cool start
to the summer, an industry group said on Wednesday.

Low temperatures in the first 10 days of the month dampened demand
for summer clothing and other seasonal goods while demand for summer
gifts in July was as firm as in the same month last year, the
association said.

The latest figures are based on the combined sales at 57
supermarket chains which together operate 7,838 outlets. The numbers
have been adjusted to facilitate comparisons on a same-store basis.

Including sales at stores newly opened during the past year,
revenues fell 5.6% in July after -4.7% in June.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

With the 1.2450 topside parameter in the latest poll having been taken out yesterday, it’s time for another one.

We sit at 1.2465.

What’ll we see first, 1.2365 or 1.2565?

Think this is a particularly interesting (tricky) one

Reason/s for choice as always appreciated, but not obligatory.