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Diposting oleh d3nfx Sabtu, 07 April 2012

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More empty shops paint grim picture of UK high streets

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 02:00 AM PDT

UK economy grew 0.1% to avoid recession, says NIESR

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 01:53 AM PDT

French hard left to back Hollande in Sarkozy duel

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 01:29 AM PDT

Election that could end the European dream

Posted: 07 Apr 2012 01:19 AM PDT

Repeat:US BLS: Unemp Rate Down to 8.2% As Labor Force Shrinks

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 01:40 PM PDT

–Retransmitting Story Published 9:31 ET Friday
–March Payrolls Below Expectations at +120,000; Unemp Rate 8.192%

By Denny Gulino

WASHINGTON (MNI) – March payroll gains did not reach expectations
and the sensitive jobs category of temporary help leveled off but the
unemployment rate improved a tenth to 8.2% as the labor force continued
its unexplained contraction.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday reported 120,000 additions to
payrolls after seasonal adjustment, well short of the 200,000 expected.
Health care’s recent strength slowed slightly while retail employment
declined by 34,000, two-thirds in department stores. Temporary help
gains leveled out.

Before adjustment, payrolls actually rose 811,000 including an
estimated 90,000 added in new firms not captured by the monthly survey.

“Retail was going down a bit,” Dori Allard, chief of the BLS
Division of Labor Force Statistics, told MNI shortly before the report’s
publication. “The loss there was mainly in general merchandise stores
and two-thirds of that was in department stores.”

Except for the decline in retail employment, a softer health
employment category that still showed 26,000 more jobs, and some leveling
of temporary help, the March report was characterized by the absence of
change rather than unexpected shifts.

In the survey of households, which determines the unemployment
rate, there was a larger-than-usual improvement in the category of those
working part-time for economic reasons, a decline of 447,000 to 7.7
million. “That series is a little bit bouncy,” she said, with February’s
decline only 111,000 and January’s 132,000.

Manufacturing continued its rebound, rising 37,000, mostly in
durable goods industries much of which supports the auto industry. There
was also a small pop of 3,000 in the paper industry. Since the trough
there in January 2010, manufacturing has added 470,000 jobs.

Financial activity jobs rose 15,000, with most of that in credit
intermediation.

Food services and drinking places rose 37,000 in March and has been
a strong contributor since its low point in February 2010, adding
563,000 jobs.

The category of professional and business services, a key business
activity indicator, added another 31,000 jobs in March but they skewed
toward the lower end of the pay scale, with 23,000 of them in building
services. The temporary help subcategory that can be a sensitive
barometer of hiring pressure backed off from its recent monthly gains,
hardly changing in March. In February that category rose 55,000.

The average workweek for all employees slipped a tenth of an hour
to 34.5 hours and the manufacturing workweek fell even more, by 0.3 hour
to 40.7 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours. The numbers
for the smaller universe of production and nonsupervisory employees was
unchanged at 33.8 hours.

But the persistent underlying mystery of why the overall labor
force keeps shrinking instead of showing new jobseeking entrants was
behind the month’s improvement in the unemployment rate, Allard said.

The total unemployed in the survey of households in March
was 12.7 million, improved from February’s 12.8 million but not enough
to be statistically significant in BLS terms.

The overall labor force got 164,000 smaller in March, also not
a statistically significant change but nevertheless a curiousity given
the better jobs atmosphere lately. Without seasonal adjustment the labor
force has risen to 154.316 million in a year from the March 2011
153.022 million

Those in the category of “not in the labor force” rose 333,000 in
March. That category had also bumped up when the 2010 Census figures
were integrated into the numbers. This time, Allard said, “that’s going
on a little bit there,” and in fact, she said, it looks like all the
monthly population growth “is pretty much going into the non labor
force” category, totaling 87.897 million in March after adjustment.

The BLS surveys don’t gather data as to why, but analysts in and
out of the BLS has pondered for months why an improving jobs picture is
still not having its usual aftereffect of encouraging more job seekers,
whose quest brings them into the formal labor force total.

Those in the BLS category of currently wanting a job were 6.299
million in March, down from 6.378 million February, 6.319 million in
January and 6.385 million in December.

Another improvement discernible below the surface of the March
report was that those looking for work are finding it a little bit
faster, “which I thought was interesting,” she said. “The weeks
unemployed is coming down a little bit,” she said. “It’s still very,
very high now at 19.9 weeks but it hasn’t been that low since February
2010.”

Before that, she said, the previous low was October 2009, at 18.9
weeks. “It has started to get down closer to its pre-recession. In June
2010 that duration was 25 weeks.

The total of the long-term unemployed, over six months, was about
unchanged at 5.3 million in March and accounted for 42.5% of all
unemployed. Since April 2010, that total has fallen 1.4 million.

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.8%, and the
employment-population ratio, at 58.5%, both dropped a tenth in March.

Expectations in an MNI survey centered on a gain of 200,000 overall
payroll slots in March in a range of 175,000 to 250,000, with 210,000
private payroll additions and an unemployment rate that stayed at 8.3%.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]

US DATA: Feb Consumer credit +$8.7b vs +$18.6b Jan…

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 12:10 PM PDT

US DATA: Feb Consumer credit +$8.7b vs +$18.6b Jan (prev +$17.8b).
Feb revolving credit -$2.2b vs -$3.0b Jan. Feb nonrevolving +$10.9b vs
+$21.6b Jan.

Compliance Comes to Capitol Hill

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 10:44 AM PDT

President Obama signed into law a bill tightening insider-trading rules on members of Congress and other government officials prohibiting them from profiting on material nonpublic information they gain access to during their employment. 

The new legislation referred to as the STOCK Act, the Stop on Congressional Knowledge Act.  The Act prohibits lawmakers, their families and staff, as well as other executive and judicial branch employees from trading stocks, commodities and futures based on private confidential information they gain access to during the scope of their employment.      

Although, senior government officials must annually file public disclosures reporting their investment holdings and profits/losses, the new law creates additional restrictions and prohibitions.   

Among others, lawmakers must report all trades valued at $1,000 or more within 30 days after they are informed of the transaction and no later than 45 days after the transaction occurred.     The rule, however, does not apply to widely held investment funds and government issued bonds.   Lawmakers cannot participate in initial public offerings that are not available to the general public.    

In addition, the bill requires lawmakers and executive branch officials to disclose terms of mortgages on their homes.    And it addresses Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives, prohibiting bonus paid to executives while the companies remain under government conservatorship.    Finally, the law denies federal pensions to members of Congress who are convicted of felonies involving public corruption.

US CBO Text: Sees -$196B March Govt Deficit Vs -$188b Yr Ago

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:50 AM PDT

–FY2012 YTD Federal Govt Deficit Now At -$777 Billion

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following are excerpts from the
Congressional Budget Office monthly budget review published Friday:

The federal government incurred a budget deficit of almost $780
billion in the first half of fiscal year 2012, CBO estimates$53 billion
less than the shortfall during the same period last year. Revenues were
about 4.5 percent higher and outlays slightly lower than the amounts
recorded in the first six months of fiscal year 2011.

The Treasury reported a deficit of $232 billion for February, about
$3 billion more than CBO’s estimate based on the Daily Treasury
Statements.

CBO estimates that the deficit in March 2012 was $196 billion,
about $8 billion more than the deficit in the same month a year earlier.

Receipts in March of this year were $21 billion (or 14 percent)
higher than those in March 2011, CBO estimates. More than half of the
gain can be attributed to lower individual income tax refunds (which
were down by $12 billion, or 20 percent). Refunds were lower in large
part because some that ordinarily would have been recorded in March were
reported at the end of February.

Net receipts from corporate income taxes were up $7 billion in
March, primarily because final payments of 2011 tax liabilities were
higher than they were a year ago. (March is the month when most
corporations made final tax payments based on their 2011 liability.)

Amounts withheld for income and payroll taxes were also up — by $4
billion. That increase indicates continued growth in wages and salaries
and would have been slightly higher except for the fact that March 2012
had one fewer business day than March 2011.

A $2 billion decline in receipts from the Federal Reserveresulting
from its shift to a lower-yielding portfolio offset some of those
gains.

Outlays were $29 billion higher this March than they were in the
same month last year, mostly because about $31 billion in payments that
would ordinarily be made in April were instead made in March this year
(as April 1 was a Sunday). In addition, revisions to the estimated cost
of several credit programs — mostly the Troubled Asset Relief Program
– added $7 billion to spending this March compared with outlays last
March. Absent those effects, outlays would have been $9 billion less in
March 2012 than in March 2011.

Compared with payments in March a year ago, outlays for Medicaid
and unemployment benefits decreased by $4 billion and $3 billion,
respectively, and spending for defense declined by $4 billion (after
shifts in the dates of certain payments are taken into account). In
addition, outlays for the Making Work Pay credit (which expired last
year) fell by $3 billion. In contrast, spending for Social Security
benefits increased by $4 billion.

CBO estimates that the Treasury will record a deficit of $777
billion for the first six months of fiscal year 2012. Compared with the
budget figures at the same point last year, revenues this year were $46
billion higher and outlays were $7 billion lower.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

US BudgetWatch: Obama Ushers Ryan Budget Into Campaign Debate

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:40 AM PDT

–President Scorches Ryan Budget As ‘Radical’ Plan
–House Speaker Boehner, Rep Ryan Hammer Obama on Huge Deficits

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – For a non-binding blueprint that was never
expected to see the light of day after it left the House chamber, House
Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s fiscal year 2013 budget resolution
has sure generated a lot of discussion and debate this week.

President Barack Obama decided to use the Ryan budget as a device
to frame the fiscal debate in the coming presidential election.

Speaking to an American Society of Newspaper Editors luncheon
Tuesday, Obama said the House Republican budget drafted by Ryan is so
far to the right that “it makes the Contract with America look like the
New Deal.”

The Ryan budget is “antiethical to our entire history as a land of
opportunity and upward mobility for everyone who’s willing to work hard
for it,” Obama said, calling it “a prescription for decline.”

But Republicans responded forcefully to Obama’s assertions.

“If the president were serious, he would put forward a plan to deal
with our debt crisis and save Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid for
future generations of seniors without raising taxes on small businesses
that are struggling,” House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement
Tuesday.

Ryan hurled some rhetorical bombs back at the president, accusing
him of “tired and cynical political attacks as he focuses on his own
re-election.”

“The president refuses to take responsibility for the economy and
refuses to offer a credible plan to address the most predictable
economic crisis in our history,” Ryan said.

“History will not be kind to a president who, when it came time to
confront our generation’s defining challenge, chose to duck and run,”
Ryan added.

And in remarks Wednesday to the newspaper editors luncheon,
presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney blasted Obama on
fiscal issues and said his remarks on the Ryan budget contained
“distortions and inaccuracies.”

The House approved Ryan’s budget resolution last week on an 228 to
191 vote. All Democrats opposed the GOP budget; all Republicans, except
for 10, voted for Ryan’s plan.

Budget resolutions set broad spending and revenue goals and make
deficit projections. They are congressional blueprints and are not
binding law. To actually change spending and tax laws, separate
legislation will be needed.

Ryan has said his budget would cut spending by $5 trillion more
than Obama’s budget over a decade and would reduce deficits by $3.3
trillion more than would the president’s budget.

Ryan’s budget makes deep cuts in the projected growth of federal
spending and endorses the fundamental overhaul of Medicare, Medicaid and
welfare programs. It also calls for repealing the 2010 health care law.

The budget plan backs the extension of Bush-era tax cuts and
undertaking fundamental tax reform in which the current six individual
rates would be collapsed into two rates, 10% and 25%. The corporate rate
would be cut to 25%.

He argues that so-called tax expenditures should be sharply
curtailed, but does not say which ones should be eliminated or reduced.

His budget sets FY 2013 discretionary spending at $1.028 trillion,
$19 billion below the $1.047 trillion that was allowed for in last
summer’s debt ceiling agreement.

Ryan also calls for enacting a package of spending cuts to prevent
the $110 billion in across-the-board cuts scheduled to begin next
January as agreed in the debt ceiling pact.

It secures some of its savings by cutting the federal workforce by
10% over three years, freezing federal pay through 2015, slowing the
growth of federal financial aid for college students and focusing it on
low-income students.

For the FY 2013-2022 period, Ryan’s budget would result in $3.127
trillion in cumulative deficits. If would not balance the federal budget
until 2040.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad has indicated he will
offer his budget resolution later this month.

Conrad has not said what his plan will look like, but has praised
Obama’s FY 2013 framework as a plan that moves in the right direction.

However, in hearings this winter and spring Conrad has repeatedly
called for bold fiscal remedies that alter the current trajectory of
American fiscal policy.

He has said the U.S. fiscal situation requires a 10-year deficit
reduction plan that is even greater than the $4 trillion package
developed by the Simpson-Bowles committee at the end of 2010.

The Senate Budget Committee chairman said his “fondest wish” would
be for Congress to support a deficit reduction plan of about $5.5
trillion over a decade.

However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has signalled that he
does not expect the full Senate to take up a budget resolution this
spring.

He said last year’s debt ceiling agreement has already settled
discretionary spending levels for the coming fiscal year.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$]

EURUSD back near days midpoint as day unwinds

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:33 AM PDT

  • The EURUSD his back near the midpoint of the days range (see chart above).
  • Price is back below trendline resistance at 1.3089 on the hourly chart below

The week is over, except for the time ticking away. 

Weaker US, should not help cure any EU problems.  Spanish and Italian yields (see weekly charts below) went the wrong way this week on a yield basis and in relation to the benchmark German bund.  As long as debt concern remains on the front pages, this should be the driver in the markets as banks, the EU, IMF cannot afford a debt meltdown in one (or both) countries. 

Next week Italy has bond auctions on Wednesday which the market will eye (maturing 2015, 2020, 2023 bonds). Spain is not scheduled to tap the debt markets until April 17th when they are scheduled to issue 12 and 18 month bills and April 19th when they are scheduled to sell bonds (unknown maturity).

.

Top Fed Watchers Differ on Monetary Implication of Jobs Data

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:30 AM PDT

By Steven K. Beckner

(MNI) – The disappointing March job figures released Friday left
analysts divided over monetary policy implications.

For some, the data had little import. For others, they reinforced
the possibility of additional monetary stimulus.

The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls rose by just
120,000 last month — far short of the expected 200,000 and even further
below the 246,000 average of the prior three months.

Prior months’ payrolls were revised up, continuing the recent
pattern, but only by 4,000.

The unemployment rate dipped from 8.3% to 8.2%, but this was
ascribed mostly to a reduction in labor force participation after two
months of sizable gains in the size of the labor force. In another sign
of softness, aggregate hours worked fell by 0.2%. Average hourly
earnings rose 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in February.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had been warning that recent job gains
were “inconsistent” with the pace of economic growth and hence may not
be sustainable, and the March data seem to bear him out. But the numbers
are subject to varying interpretations and to different conclusions
about the likely direction of monetary policy.

For some, the slowdown in payroll growth was largely a matter of
the weather. The unseasonably mild days of January and February were
seen as boosting jobs, particularly in construction. March was seen as a
“payback” month.

But it may not be that simple, others say.

Robert DiClemente, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup, said he
found the 120,000 payroll number “not altogether surprising” because
he thinks the underlying growth trend is more like 175,000 than
246,000. So he said, “there’s more numbers like this waiting for us.”

While citing “encouraging” signs in manufacturing and government
hiring, he agreed somewhat with Bernanke that the more sizable job
gains of previous months may have reflected a “catch-up” or reversal
of the panicky lay-offs made at the outset of the financial crisis and
recession. After stretching productivity of their workforces as far as
they could, firms may have been forced to increase hiring.

But DiClemente said that if “a more normal alignment” of workforce
and productivity has now been reached, “it puts a greater onus on demand
going forward.”

It’s a point that Bernanke and other Fed policymakers have been
making. In a March 26 speech on labor market conditions to the National
Association for Business Economics, Bernanke said “to the extent that
the decline in the unemployment rate since last summer has brought
unemployment back more into line with the level of aggregate demand,
then further significant improvements in unemployment will likely
require faster economic growth than we experienced during the past
year.”

And Bernanke said “to the extent that this reversal (of
recessionary lay-offs) has been completed, further significant
improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid
expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a
process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

Neither DiClemente nor anyone else expects the Fed’s policymaking
Federal Open Market Committee to make any meaningful change in monetary
policy or policy rhetoric at its April 24-25 meeting. Thereafter, policy
will depend on whether demand is able to sustain an acceptable pace of
job growth and prevent a resurgence of unemployment.

At he very least, DiClemente said, the Fed will have to be careful
not to inadvertently signal a tightening of monetary policy earlier than
the “late 2014″ timeframe contained in the last two FOMC statements.

DiClemente said financial markets will be hanging on every word
from Fed policymakers to detect whether they might start raising the
federal funds rate from zero earlier than late 2014, so officials will
have to watch what they say.

The Fed is depending on that “communication tool” to control longer
term interest rates, so “you’ve got to make sure you guard that
message,” he said, noting, “It’s very hard to acknowledge better data”
without signalling a policy shift.

Depending on how the economy unfolds, the FOMC not be able to wait
until late 2014. But because of the potential “fiscal drag” of higher
taxes that are due to go into effect in January of next year, if the law
is not changed, DiClemente said he “can imagine the Fed riding all the
way through next year with current policy.”

Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman-Sachs, was more inclined
to think that the FOMC might decide more monetary stimulus is needed,
although he wasn’t predicting it.

Hatzius said “not very much” of the March dip in payroll gains was
due to weather. He said “more than wether boosted the numbers the last
few months.” And he added, “most of the payback is ahead of us.”

“The overall evidence is that the economy is still only expanding
at a moderate pace,” he said. And so the FOMC “may still want to
consider additional easing.’

“At the June meeting it will still be on the table,” Hatzius
continued. “At that point they will have to decide whether to start
another asset purchase program, given how the economy looks.”

John Silvia, chief economist of Wells Fargo, doubted the FOMC will
approve a third round of quantitative easing. “Our bet is that the Fed
continues to pursue reinvesting proceeds but not an expansion of the
balance sheet,” he said.

But Siliva said “the drop in unemployment rate due to the lower
participation rate has to be a concern.” So he predicted “no change in
the funds rate at least thru 2013.”

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$$BR$]

ForexLive US wrap: Woeful payrolls send dollar, interest rates lower

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:17 AM PDT

  • US non-farm payrolls rise 121,000 in March; unemployment rate falls to 8.2% as labor force shrinks
  • February payrolls revised down to 203,000 from 227,000
  • Greek interior minister says Elections seen on May 6 or possibly May 13
  • US 10-year note yield falls to 2.05% from 2.18% before data
  • S&P 500 futures fall 1.2%; cash markets closed

The dollar fell broadly on the disappointing US employment report. Yields were particularly hard-hit as traders were forced to price the possibility of a third round of Fed bond-buying into the markets. Lingering European concerns helped keep EUR/USD rallies limited to the 1.3110 area before stalling. We end our coverage with EUR/USD around 1.3085, up 20 pips from opening levels.

USD/JPY bore the brunt of the bad news, gapping from 82.50 to 81.93 and eventually taking out stops below 81.50 before stabilizing. We traded as low as 80.30, briefly.  We end at 81.53.

EUR/JPY ends at 106.68 from 1.0785 before the data.

 

 

Obama: Lot More Work To Do On Econ; Will Be ‘Ups And Downs’

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 08:10 AM PDT

By Brai Odion-Esene

WASHINGTON (MNI) – President Barack Obama Friday lauded the fact
that 120,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, but cautioned
that the March report underscores there will be “ups and downs” on the
road to a full recovery.

“Right now no issue is greater than restoring economic security for
all our families,” Obama said in remarks at the White House Forum on
Women and the Economy.

He welcomed the latest jobs report, which showed a dip in the
unemployment rate to 8.2% and that the economy has created more than
600,000 jobs in the past three months.

“But, it’s clear to every American that there will still be ups and
downs along the way, and that we’ve got a lot more work to do,” he said.

The president’s chief economic adviser Alan Krueger agreed with
this assessment in a separate statement Friday.

“There is more work to be done, but today’s employment report
provides further evidence that the economy is continuing to recover from
the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression,” Krueger,
chairman the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said.

He noted that while both the establishment and household surveys
indicate the continuing challenges facing construction workers,
manufacturing continues to be “a bright spot.”

Still, Krueger — as he does in every statement following release
of employment data — stressed that the monthly employment and
unemployment figures can be volatile, and can be subject to substantial
revision.

“Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one
monthly report, and it is helpful to consider each report in the context
of other data that are becoming available,” he said.

U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the
unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2%, from 8.3%, but the lowest
since January 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

The number of unemployed persons 12.7 million was little changed in
March. Private-sector employment grew by 121,000 in March, government
employment was essentially unchanged.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and
over) was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MGU$$$,MAUDS$]

Reuters: Egan Jones cut US credit rating to AA from AA- last night

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:42 AM PDT

The small, independent rating agency takes the US rating down another notch on the failure to curb the build-up in government debt.

The US remains on negative watch, meaning another cut could be in the offing.

USDJPY remains the weak one

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:40 AM PDT

The USDJPY has rightfully remained pressured after the weaker US Employment report (along with the JPY crosses of course).

  • On the daily chart, the price tested bottom trend line support at the 81.38 (low of 81.30) and rebounded only modestly.
  • The 38.2% of the sharp fall comes in at the 81.77 level and this level will be topside resistance for the pair. The price could only correct up to the 81.68 area  from the lows. 

 A move below the 81.38 level is needed to push the pair further to the downside with targets at the 81.05 (38.2% of the 2012 range), 80.09 (50% of the same range) the next targets.  The low from March will also likely attract some interest at 80.57.

Obama: Jobs figures shows there is still work to do on the economy

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:35 AM PDT

  • Clear there will be economic ups and downs

US DATA: Boeing Corp reports 53 new orders for in….

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:30 AM PDT

US DATA: Boeing Corp reports 53 new orders for commercial aircraft in
March vs 237 in Feb.

US yields likely to close below key technical level; the game has changed

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:26 AM PDT

Today’s employment report has fundamentally changed the state of play. US yields have fallen back below the 2.08/2.10 area which had acted as a firm cap on yields for so many months before breaking to the upside in mid-March.

Expectations for quantitative ease have done 270 degree turn this week. We went from about half-priced in early in the week, to fully priced out late in the week to being priced back in again at the end of the week.

That will impact USD/JPY most directly but will make the dollar that much less attractive across the board near-term.

European jitters will not go away, so short EUR/JPY looks like the best way to play from the fundamental perspective. 105.95/106.05 is key support for that cross in the near-term.

US 10s are down to 2.0550% in yield.

 

US DATA: IRS individual tax return filing stats for..

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:20 AM PDT

US DATA: IRS individual tax return filing stats for w/e Mar 23 show
number of returns +2.3% YOY but refunds merely +0.4% – see MNI Main
wire.

Next Week/US: Beige Book,Trade Balance,CPI,PPI,Consumer Sent

Posted: 06 Apr 2012 07:10 AM PDT

By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The week ahead will feature a slew of smaller
releases, with consumer sentiment, inflation and trade data filling out
the end of the week.

The U.S. trade balance for February, to be released Thursday at
8:30 a.m. ET, has widened considerably in the last four months, posting
its highest level since 2008 in the January report. The higher deficit
was largely due to a sharp increase in imports, as exports have
continued to expand apace.

While this month’s figure is expected to slightly contract, another
upside surprise could have negative implications for first quarter GDP.

March inflation data, which includes the Producer Price Index, to
be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Consumer Price Index, out
at Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to rise off the jump in energy
prices over the month. The more marginal import and export prices report
will also be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show
a similar trend.

The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment survey
for April will be released Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET and is expected to
post a slight increase. Consumer confidence data has been somewhat
choppy in the last couple months, caught between conflicting signals of
improving jobs numbers and rising gas prices.

Initial jobless claims — Thursday 08.30 a.m. ET — are also
expected to remain in the mid-300,000 range, a level that is consistent
with strong job creation. The latest report showed no sign of momentum
loss in employment, with claims posting the lowest level in nearly four
years at 357,000.

The Federal Reserve at 14:00 ET Wednesday will release its Beige
Book report on the state of the economy, which will likely reiterate
opinions from the latest statements by the Federal Open Market
Committee, namely that the economy is improving moderately and that
while the unemployment rate is improving it remains elevated.

Other releases during the week include the employment trends index
Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the NFIB small business optimism index Tuesday
at 7:30 a.m. ET, wholesale inventories Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, JOLTs
job openings Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the MBA’s mortgage applications
index Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET and the March Treasury budget Wednesday
at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Below is a list of appearances by other Fed officials in the week
ahead:

April 9, 6:00 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks
at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform entitled “Financial
Reform: The Devil’s in the Details.”

April 10, 12:30 p.m. ET, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President
Richard Fisher speaks to the University of Oklahoma on the economy and
too-big-to-fail banks.

April 10, 12:45 p.m. ET, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis
Lockhart speaks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform.

April 10, 2:30 p.m. ET, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President
Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Southern Minnesota Initiative
Foundation.

April 11, 8:20 a.m. ET, the Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart makes welcome
remarks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform.

April 11, 9:30 a.m. ET, Kansas City Federal Reserve President
Esther George speaks to Hyman P. Minsky Conference on deficits and
financial instability.

April 11, 10:30 a.m. ET, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric
Rosengren speaks at three-day Atlanta conference on financial reform.

April 11, 5:00 p.m. ET, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James
Bullard gives welcome remarks at Homer Jones Memorial Lecture.

April 11, 5:30 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen
speaks at dinner meeting of Money Marketeers of New York University.

April 12, 9:00 a.m. ET, Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart moderates panel
discussion on U.S.-Mexican relations in Georgia.

April 12, 12:30 p.m. ET, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President
Charles Plosser speaks on economic outlook to the National Economists
Club in Washington, D.C.

April 12, 1:00 p.m. ET, Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to
White Bear Lake Area Chamber of Commerce.

April 12, 3:30 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom-Raskin
speaks on “The State of the Economy” at San Francisco Business and
Community Leaders Luncheon.

–Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$]