For the cut at 1000 NY time (1400GMT)

EUR/USD: 1.2970 , 1.3000, 1.3100 ( all large ), (Also a 1.2950 one touch with a payout of $20 mio)

USD/JPY: 80.50, 81.00, and 81.50

GBP/USD: 1.6000, 1.6100

EUR/GBP: 0.8200

EUR/JPY: 106.00

USD/CHF: 0.9150 and 0.9250

NZD/USD: 0.8190

AUD/USD:  1.0300, 1.0325 and 1.0335

USD/CAD:  0.9950

–Corrects Structure of First Paragraph

Apr MNI analysts survey Mar Feb
median range
————————————————————————
Business sentiment: 109.9 109.5 108.5 – 110.1 109.8 109.7
Current conditions 117.5 117.0 116.0 – 117.6 117.4 117.4
Six-month outlook: 102.7 102.3 101.0 – 103.0 102.7 102.4
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Business sentiment in Germany improved slightly
in April, reflecting a brighter assessment of the current situation, the
Ifo institute reported on Friday.

After five months of increase, Ifo’s business climate indicator
surprised to the upside again, rising 0.1 point to 109.9, its highest
level since July. Most analysts had expected a modest decline.

“The German economy is proving resilient,” Ifo President
Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release.

After stalling in March at 117.4, the current conditions component
also gained 0.1 point to a six-month high of 117.5, surpassing most
analysts’ forecasts.

The expectations component was unchanged at 102.7 following five
consecutive months of increase. Most analysts had expected a small
erosion.

In manufacturing, improving sentiment lifted the sub-indicator 1.4
points to an eight-month high of 15.4. Both present conditions and
expectations brightened, Ifo noted, adding that manufacturers were
boosting capacity utilisation. Companies also planned to continue
hiring, though at a “slightly more conservative” pace than in March.

Morale in the construction sector dropped six points to -3.8, its
lowest so far for 2012, on the back of a deteriorating current situation
and a less optimistic view of the upcoming six months.

Optimism among wholesalers also lost further ground in April after
reaching a peak in March, falling 0.1 point to 12.7. Retailers, by
contrast, were slightly more upbeat, as reflected in the 0.1-point rise
in sentiment to 10.8.

“Retailers report some deterioration in their business situation
and an improvement in their business outlook,” Ifo commented. “A greater
number of wholesalers, on the other hand, are satisfied with their
current business situation, while their expectations clouded over
slightly.”

The unadjusted services index was unchanged on the month at 22.4,
as a recovery in current conditions offset a further erosion in
expectations.

The ongoing improvement in Ifo’s sentiment index after the
unexpectedly optimistic assessment of analysts canvassed last week by
Germany’s ZEW think tank is reassuring in light of the ongoing slowdown
in industry orders and the slide in the PMI polls.

March’s composite PMI (51.6) slipped to its lowest level in three
month on the back of contracting factory output and slowing growth in
services. Falling industry orders (46.3) and the squeeze on profit
margins from rising input costs point to further weakness ahead.

ZEW President Wolfgang Franz also noted that Germany faces
“considerable risks such as the economic slowdown of important trading
partners, the rise of prices for crude materials and the sovereign debt
crisis in the Eurozone.”

Germany’s leading economic institutes, including Ifo, see the
economy regaining strength this spring following a lull in 1Q on the
back of a strong labour market and low interest rates.

“As in previous years, the main impulses will come from domestic
demand, and especially from investment and private consumer
expenditure,” the institutes said, projecting GDP growth of 0.9% this
year and 2.0% next year.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE]

–Adds Details For Sectors

Apr MNI analysts survey Mar Feb
median range
————————————————————————
Business sentiment: 109.9 109.5 108.5 – 110.1 109.8 109.7
Current conditions 117.5 117.0 116.0 – 117.6 117.4 117.4
Six-month outlook: 102.7 102.3 101.0 – 103.0 102.7 102.4
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Business sentiment in Germany improved slightly
in April, reflecting a brighter assessment of the current situation
brightened, the Ifo institute reported on Friday.

After five months of increase, Ifo’s business climate indicator
surprised to the upside again, rising 0.1 point to 109.9, its highest
level since July. Most analysts had expected a modest decline.

“The German economy is proving resilient,” Ifo President
Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release.

After stalling in March at 117.4, the current conditions component
also gained 0.1 point to a six-month high of 117.5, surpassing most
analysts’ forecasts.

The expectations component was unchanged at 102.7 following five
consecutive months of increase. Most analysts had expected a small
erosion.

In manufacturing, improving sentiment lifted the sub-indicator 1.4
points to an eight-month high of 15.4. Both present conditions and
expectations brightened, Ifo noted, adding that manufacturers were
boosting capacity utilisation. Companies also planned to continue
hiring, though at a “slightly more conservative” pace than in March.

Morale in the construction sector dropped six points to -3.8, its
lowest so far for 2012, on the back of a deteriorating current situation
and a less optimistic view of the upcoming six months.

Optimism among wholesalers also lost further ground in April after
reaching a peak in March, falling 0.1 point to 12.7. Retailers, by
contrast, were slightly more upbeat, as reflected in the 0.1-point rise
in sentiment to 10.8.

“Retailers report some deterioration in their business situation
and an improvement in their business outlook,” Ifo commented. “A greater
number of wholesalers, on the other hand, are satisfied with their
current business situation, while their expectations clouded over
slightly.”

The unadjusted services index was unchanged on the month at 22.4,
as a recovery in current conditions offset a further erosion in
expectations.

The ongoing improvement in Ifo’s sentiment index after the
unexpectedly optimistic assessment of analysts canvassed last week by
Germany’s ZEW think tank is reassuring in light of the ongoing slowdown
in industry orders and the slide in the PMI polls.

March’s composite PMI (51.6) slipped to its lowest level in three
month on the back of contracting factory output and slowing growth in
services. Falling industry orders (46.3) and the squeeze on profit
margins from rising input costs point to further weakness ahead.

ZEW President Wolfgang Franz also noted that Germany faces
“considerable risks such as the economic slowdown of important trading
partners, the rise of prices for crude materials and the sovereign debt
crisis in the Eurozone.”

Germany’s leading economic institutes, including Ifo, see the
economy regaining strength this spring following a lull in 1Q on the
back of a strong labour market and low interest rates.

“As in previous years, the main impulses will come from domestic
demand, and especially from investment and private consumer
expenditure,” the institutes said, projecting GDP growth of 0.9% this
year and 2.0% next year.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE]

–Mar Retail Sales +1.8% m/m; +3.3% y/y; median +0.4% m/m; +1.4% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Retail sales rose at their fastest monthly pace for
a year in March, as clothing and footwear sales were boosted by the warm
weather, according to figures released by National Statistics Friday.

The figures show the retail sector performing far better than had
been expected during the first quarter of the year, which could lead
analysts to up their forecasts slightly for GDP.

Retail sales volumes rose 1.8% on the month in March and were up
3.3% on the year, way above the median for a 0.4% monthly gain and 1.4%
on the year. The rise between February and March and in the year to
March was the strongest since January 2011. The January 2011 rise was
due to special factors so a better comparison would put the monthly rise
at the strongest since February 2010.

The large rise in March means that volumes grew by 0.8% on the
quarter, significantly above the 0.2%/0.3% rise most analysts were
penciling in.

Headline retail sales which include sales of auto fuel, were
boosted by the threat of a petrol strike at the end of the month. Auto
fuel volumes leapt 4.9% on the month, the highest since January 2011.

Excluding auto fuel, however, sales still grew a hefty 1.5% on the
month and were up 2.8% on a year earlier. National Statistics noted
there was some evidence that the petrol strike had actually hit sales at
smaller petrol stations. Many of these were forced to close as their
fuel supplies quickly sold out, meaning they lose out on sales of
non-fuel items.

Textile, clothing and footwear sales leapt 2.3% on the month in
March following a 0.7% fall in February. National Statistics said that
retailers had cited the unusually warm weather for the sales boost.

There was also a strong rise in other store sales of 6.1% on the
month, following a 3.6% decline in February, with strong sales at garden
centres.

Non-specialised (department) store sales were up 1.6% on the month
and household goods sales rose 0.9%.

Overall non-food sales increased by 3% on the month, their best
performance since February 2010.

Food store sales were down 0.3% on the month.

The retail sales deflator excluding auto fuel ticked up to 2.1% in
March from 2% in February. The headline deflator rose to 2.5% from 2.4%.

–London bureau: +44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Mar Retail Sales +1.8% m/m; +3.3% y/y; median +0.4%; +1.4%
–Mar Retail Sales Rise Strongest Since Jan 2011
————————————————————————
Retail sales rocketed 1.8% m/m in March, way above the median for a 0.4%
m/m gain. Sales were boosted by higher auto fuel due to the petrol
strike but even excluding this volumes were up 1.5% ex fuel. NS cited
the warmer weather which boosted clothing and footwear sales which were
up 2.3% m/m. Non-food sales in general were strong up 3%, helped by a
6.2% m/m rise in ‘other’ store sales. Over Q1 as a whole volumes were up
0.8% q/q, far more than anyone had been forecasting and this could lead
some analysts to up their GDP forecasts a little for the quarter. While
special factors have pushed up sales this month, and we’d expect to see
some pullback, next month, these figures will strengthen the view for no
more QE at the May MPC meeting.

Much stronger than expected as cable spikes over 30 pips  to 1.6121. Biggest increase since January last year

Ex fuel +1.5% m/m, +2.8% y/y ( exp +0.4% m/m , +1.3% y/y)

Apr MNI analysts survey Mar Feb
median range
————————————————————————
Business sentiment: 109.9 109.5 108.5 – 110.1 109.8 109.7
Current conditions 117.5 117.0 116.0 – 117.6 117.4 117.4
Six-month outlook: 102.7 102.3 101.0 – 103.0 102.7 102.4
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Business sentiment in Germany improved slightly
in April, reflecting a brighter assessment of the current situation
brightened, the Ifo institute reported on Friday.

After five months of increase, Ifo’s business climate indicator
surprised to the upside again, rising 0.1 point to 109.9, its highest
level since July. Most analysts had expected a modest decline.

“The German economy is proving resilient,” Ifo President
Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release.

After stalling in March at 117.4, the current conditions component
also gained 0.1 point to a six-month high of 117.5, surpassing most
analysts’ forecasts.

The expectations component was unchanged at 102.7 following five
consecutive months of increase. Most analysts had expected a small
erosion.

The further improvement in Ifo’s sentiment index after the
unexpectedly optimistic assessment of analysts canvassed last week by
Germany’s ZEW think tank is reassuring in light of the ongoing slowdown
in industry orders and the slide in the PMI polls.

March’s composite PMI (51.6) slipped to its lowest level in three
month on the back of contracting factory output and slowing growth in
services. Falling industry orders (46.3) and the squeeze on profit
margins from rising input costs point to further weakness ahead.

ZEW President Wolfgang Franz also noted that Germany faces
“considerable risks such as the economic slowdown of important trading
partners, the rise of prices for crude materials and the sovereign debt
crisis in the Eurozone.”

Germany’s leading economic institutes, including Ifo, see the
economy regaining strength this spring following a lull in 1Q on the
back of a strong labour market and low interest rates.

“As in previous years, the main impulses will come from domestic
demand, and especially from investment and private consumer
expenditure,” the institutes said, projecting GDP growth of 0.9% this
year and 2.0% next year.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE]

TGIF…

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3130/40, sell stops through 1.3125, 1.3080 and 1.3050. Buy stops through 1.3180 ahead of tech res 1.3205 (55 day MA), with buy stops again on a break

GBP/USD: Offers 1.6085/00 ahead of barrier (1.6100). Bids 1.6035/45 and 1.6000/10 (Watch for a weekly close above 200 week MA of 1.5957)

EUR/GBP:  tech support 0.8165 (50% of 0.6535/0.9797), 0.8140 (Aug 23 2010 lows),|suggested buy stops now through 0.8205

EUR/JPY: Bids 107.00/10, tech support 106.85 (Ichimoku cloud top) and bids 106.50/60, stops through 107.80

USD/JPY:  Offers 81.60/70, buy stops through 82.00 and 82.25. Bids 81.50 layered down to 81.00,(tech support 81.07 -55 day MA),  sell stops through 80.80.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0300/10 from sovereigns and option players, sell stops down through 1.0295. Offers 1.0340/50 Tech lvl 200 day MA at 1.0372, Offers from 1.0385/00 and stronger up at 1.0415/20, with likely stops through 1.0425

AUD/JPY:  Large offers from 84.80

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9150/55, 0.9190/95and 0.9215/20. Bids 0.9125/30

EUR/CHF:  Offers 1.2025/30 and 1.2040/50. Bids 1.2015/20, tech supp 1.2011-200 day MA and 1.2000/05 (SNB/peg). Offers 1.2020/25 and 1.2030/35

USD/CAD: offers 0.9995/00 (sovereigns), Bids 0.9940/45, large fund related bids 0.9885/95

NZD/USD: sell stops through 0.8100, tech supp 0.8085 (200 day MA)

Stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 109.5.

EUR/USD rallies up to 1.3179, presently at 1.3170.

Talk of buy stops through 1.3180 and more through 1.3205 (which is 55 dma).  On downside trailing sell stops through 1.3125.

Periphery/German bond yield spreads stop widening and EUR/USD steadies.

Talk of ACB buying at recent lows (whatever)

We’re back at 1.3150, effectively unchanged on the day.

Joe’s here in 5 minutes.  That’s my signal to disappear for a little while, can’t take anymore of this.

He can cover UK retails sales release at 08:30 GMT.

Data expected as follows:

UK retail sales ex auto fuel +0.4% m/m, +1.3% y/y    w/auto fuel +0.5% m/m, +1.5% y/y

Cable sits at 1.6060, where it was when I arrived.

Improved from -39 pts in March.

• Portuguese banks need ‘fraction’ of EU 12 bln
• Yields will fall as Portugal meets bailout terms

From the 140 I jotted down first thing.

Highest since January 9th.

EUR/USD down to 1.3130.

Spanish/German out to 431 bps from the 423 I saw first thing

Italian/German out to 400 bps from 392

EUR/USD down to 1.3138.

We’re back down at 1.3145, the early rally floundering at 1.3163 (Reuters) 1.3165 (EBS)

Another head fake, who would have thunk it?

Blame the Russians for the lack of upside followthrough, selling out of Moscow having capped the fledgling rally.  Boo hiss

Got it in one pumpkin. And there’s the problem.

• ECB should cut interest rates
• ECB should lend money directly to states

I just can’t wait for this guy to become French President. It’s gonna be a hoot

GERMANY DATA: March PPI +0.6% m/m, +3.3% y/y; February +3.2% y/y;January
+3.4%
– Germany March PPI above MNI median m/m fcast (+0.3%)
– Germany March PPI above MNI median y/y fcast (+3.1%)
– Germany March PPI ex-energy +0.3% m/m, +1.6% y/y; February +1.6% y/y
– Germany March PPI ex-petroleum products +0.4% m/m, +2.8% y/y
– Germany March PPI energy +1.3% m/m, +7.1% y/y; February +0.5%/+6.9%
– Germany March PPI cap goods +0.2% m/m, +1.3% y/y; February +1.1% y/y
– Germany March PPI cons goods +0.3% m/m, +3.5% y/y; February +3.5% y/y
– Germany March PPI basic goods +0.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y;February +0.5% y/y
– See MNI MainWire for details

Phew

• But euro zone remains convalescent
• Debt must be reimbursed to avoid markets influence
• Spending reduction effort mustn’t be abated

Dow Jones reporting.

Little stronger than median forecasts +0.5%, +3.1% respectively.

Likely effect on EUR/USD, negligible.

Like no effect, you know wat I’m sayin blood….