Slightly below median forecast of 3.0 bln.

Does anyone really care. Seemingly not,  EUR/USD unchanged at 1.3013.

For today’s 1000 NY cut…..

EUR/USD: 1.3025, 1.3100, 1.3115, 1.3120, 1.3150

GBP/USD: 1.5850

EUR/CHF: 1.2000

USD/CHF: 0.9200

USD/JPY: 80.00

AUD/USD: 1.0280, 1.0350

EUR/AUD: 1.2650

USD/CAD: 1.000

PARIS (MNI) – Italy’s public debt declined by E6.8 billion m/m in
February to 1.928 trillion, the Bank of Italy said Monday.

The borrowing requirement, net of privatization receipts, was E8.8
billion in February, down E1.4 billion from a year earlier.

The E6.8 billion month-on-month drop in the public debt reflected a
E16 billion reduction in Treasury balances at the central bank, which
was partially offset by the borrowing requirement, by the impact of
yield spreads on government securities and by exchange rate variations,
the Bank of Italy said.

The borrowing requirement for the first two months of the year, at
E12.7 billion, is in line with the figure registered a year ago.

[TOPICS: M$I$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$]

• Italian 5 year credit default swaps rise to 438 bps, up 10 bps on day

Spanish/German 10 year govt bond yield spread out to 443 bps at writing.

Good morning all

EUR/USD:  Sell stops through 1.2985 and 1.2960, trailing buy stops up through 1.3030 offers into 1.3050 and 1.3075/85, buy stops through 1.3110.

GBP/USD: offers 1.5855/60 and 1.5910/20. Bids 1.5820/25, and 1.5800/10, sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.5770/80.

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8230/35 and 0.8245/55. Bids at 0.8210/15 ahead of a 0.8200 barrier

USD/JPY:  Bids 80.30/40, sell stops just below and larger bids 80.00/10. Offers 80.90/00 and 81.10/15

EUR/JPY:  Sell stops down through 104.50, bids 104.20/30 (104.20 Fibonacci support) and 104.00/10 (104.10 100 day MA). Offers 104.95/05

AUD/USD: Exporter bids 1.0310/15, barrier 1.0300. Offers 1.0350/65 and 1.0375/85 (200 day MA at 1.0376)

AUD/JPY:  Tech support 83.00/10

USD/CHF: Bids 0.9200/10, 0.91.60/70, Sell stops through 0.9150. Offers at 0.9250/55 and 0.9320/30 buy stops suggested above through 0.9335

EUR/CHF:  Bids 1.2015/20 and 1.2000/05, (1.2000 peg and 200 day MA) offers 1.2030/35, tech res .1.2044 (21 day MA)

USD/CAD:  Tech res 1.0024 (200 day MA). Offers at 1.0050/55. Bids at 0.9975/85, with larger down at 0.9925/35.

NZD/USD: Offers 0.8250/55, larger up at 0.8310/20, tech support 0.8190/95 and 0.8140/45

‘Brazil is the country of the future and always will be, as the old saying goes’

Latest from AEP at The Telegraph.

• Undecided when to announce IMF assistance
• Must consult partners before IMF decision
• Welcomes China widening yuan trading band

Hurry up harry!!!!, eurozone urgently needs the cavalry to arrive

EUR/USD comatose at 1.3018.

We were only playing leapfrog……..

As we’ve gone back into sleep-mode, there’s only one thing for it.

Let’s have a poll.

What’ll we see first in EUR/USD, 1.2900 or 1.3100?

As usual reasoning for choice appreciated, but not obligatory.

Joe doesn’t get to make a pick. He’s sitting in the corner wearing a dunce cap…..

Out ot 440 bps.

EUR/USD at 1.3020, where it was when I arrived about three hours ago.

So, we’ve got sell stops through 1.2985.

On the topside, some trailing buy stops apparently through 1.3030.

• Conditions being set for inter-bank market improvement
• Weak banks need significant restructuring

Meanwhile European stocks have erased early losses.

EUR/USD at 1.3017.

Consumer Prices (final)
– March -
%mom %yoy %yoy (core)

Median Forecast 1.2 2.6 1.5
High forecast 1.4 2.7 1.6
Low forecast 1.2 2.6 1.3
Previous period 0.5 2.7 1.5
-
Number of responses 11 15 7
-
4Cast 1.2 2.6 n/a
Barclays Cap. 1.3 2.7 1.5
Berenberg Bank n/a 2.6 1.3
Capital Economics n/a 2.6 1.5
Citi 1.2 2.6 n/a
Commerzbank n/a 2.6 1.5
Credit Agricole n/a 2.6 1.5
DZ Bank 1.2 2.6 n/a
ING 1.3 2.6 n/a
Lloyds Bank 1.3 2.6 n/a
Morgan Stanley 1.4 2.6 n/a
Natixis 1.2 2.6 n/a
Soc. Generale 1.3 2.7 1.6
UBS 1.2 2.6 1.6
West LB 1.2 2.6 n/a
–

Consumer Climate
– April -
(flash)

Median Forecast -20.0
High forecast -18.6
Low forecast -22.0
Previous period -19.1
-
Number of responses 9
-
4Cast -20.0
Barclays Cap. -18.6
Berenberg Bank -18.8
BNP Paribas -19.3
Capital Economics n/a
Citi -20.0
Commerzbank -22.0
Credit Agricole n/a
DZ Bank n/a
ING n/a
Lloyds Bank n/a
LBBW -19.5
Morgan Stanley -20.0
Natixis n/a
Soc. Generale n/a
UBS -20.0
West LB n/a
———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, April 13.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

ZEW – April Producer Prices
economic current – March -
morale conditions %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 20.0 34.0 0.3 3.1
High forecast 24.8 37.5 0.8 3.3
Low forecast 14.0 17.0 0.2 2.9
Previous period 22.3 37.6 0.4 3.2
-
Number of responses 17 9 7 7
-
4Cast 14.0 34.0 n/a n/a
Berenberg Bank 17.0 34.0 n/a n/a
BNP Paribas 24.8 34.6 0.2 2.9
Capital Economics 22.3 n/a n/a n/a
Citi 26.5 n/a n/a n/a
Commerzbank 20.0 n/a n/a n/a
Credit Agricole 20.0 n/a n/a n/a
DZ Bank 21.2 35.5 0.3 3.1
ING 15.0 30.0 n/a n/a
Lloyds Bank 19.0 37.5 0.3 3.1
LBBW 22.0 n/a 0.3 n/a
Morgan Stanley 20.0 n/a n/a 3.3
Natixis 21.0 34.0 0.4 3.1
Nomura 17.0 n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 18.0 35.0 n/a n/a
UBS 20.0 35.0 0.5 n/a
West LB 17.0 n/a 0.8 3.1
Westpac n/a n/a n/a 3.3
–

Ifo – April
business current expec-
climate situation tations

Median Forecast 109.5 117.0 102.3
High forecast 110.1 117.4 103.0
Low forecast 108.5 116.0 101.0
Previous period 109.8 117.4 102.7
-
Number of responses 17 6 6
-
4Cast 109.0 117.0 102.0
Berenberg Bank 109.7 117.1 102.7
BNP Paribas 108.5 116.5 101.0
Capital Economics 109.8 n/a n/a
Citi 109.9 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 109.0 n/a n/a
DZ Bank 109.4 n/a n/a
ING 109.3 n/a n/a
Lloyds Bank 109.5 n/a n/a
LBBW 109.8 n/a n/a
Morgan Stanley 110.0 n/a n/a
Natixis 110.1 117.4 103.0
Nomura 109.7 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 109.0 116.0 102.5
UBS 108.8 117.0 101.0
West LB 109.3 n/a n/a
Westpac 109.5 n/a n/a
——————————————————————-
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, April 13.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

As well as the one’s through 1.2960 which Sean mentioned overnight, also hearing some clustered through 1.2985.

We’re presently at 1.3002.

Highest since December 1.

EUR/USD back at 1.3013, exhibiting the usual cronic lack of followthrough which has become commonplace during the European sessions of late.

Personally, if I traded, I’d be thinking of switching to the North American session

Barrier option interest at 1.3000 is toast. Bout time too.

Session low 1.2995, presently 1.3000.

• US economy is gradually recovering
• Japan’s economy is showing signs of picking up
• Japan economy to return to moderate growth path
• BOJ doing its’ best to overcome deflation
• Needs to watch risk of Europe’s problems affecting Japan’s banking system

Bloomberg headline.

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Clearing derivative trades through central
clearing houses can lead to an improvement in financial stability and
reduce “run risk” by protecting participants from direct exposure to a
firm whose financial health is in question, William Dudley, president of
the New York Federal Reserve, said in the Financial Times.

“But stability demands that central counterparties themselves be
subject to tough rules and appropriate oversight to ensure they can
withstand any wider financial stresses,” Dudley said in a commentary
published in Monday’s edition of the business daily.

“This is where a set of new global standards, released today by the
Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems and International
Organization of Securities Commission, come in,” he continued. “They
toughen requirements for how central counterparties manage risk.”

If regulated and structured properly, global clearing houses could
be more effective in reducing risk than a number of national or local
houses, Dudley argued: “That is because large gross derivatives
exposures can be netted off into more manageable net exposures on a
global rather than local basis.”

Although the financial sector would need time and money to set up
stronger central counterparties, the “moderate” effort would be
worthwhile by “yielding substantial returns in reduced risk and
operational efficiencies,” the central banker said.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$$CR$,M$$DR$,MMUFE$,MI$$$$]

Spanish/German 10 year govt bond yield spread out to 431 bps from the 424 I jotted down first thing.

Italian/German 10 year govt bond yield spread out to 388 bps from 378.