LONDON (MNI) – Gross mortgage lending was up sharply in March on a
year ago, boosted by the looming expiry of the stamp duty holiday,
according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data.

Unadjusted March gross mortgage lending climbed to Stg13.4 billion,
up from Stg10.336 billion in February and 17.2% higher than the
Stg11.429 billion in the same month a year ago. The March outturn was
the highest since the Stg13.637 billion recorded in September 2011.

The looming removal of the stamp duty, or property transaction tax,
holiday has driven housing market activity higher, creating the risk of
a deceleration in April.

CML chief economist Bob Pannell said “The most likely explanation
is that buyers wanted to complete their transactions before the end of
the stamp duty concession on 24 March.”

“We would be surprised if we did not see a drop in transactions
over the next few months, following the end of the stamp duty
concession,” Pannell added.

The CML data are based on mortgage advances, the loan actually
provided to a borrower. The headlines from Bank of England and British
Bankers Association mortgage data are the more forward-looking mortgage
approvals.

–London bureau: +4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

For 1000 EDT in NY (or 1400 GMT)

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.3100, 1.3200

GBP/USD: 1.5910, 1.6000, 1.6200

EUR/GBP: 0.8175, 0.8200

USD/JPY: 80.00 (large) 81.00, 81.50 and 82.15

EUR/JPY: 105.00 (large) and 106.00

AUD/USD: 1.0400

Morning all , rather quiet on the flow front today…

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3130/40 sell stops below.

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6075/85 (possibly Dividend related-HSBC) offers 1.6105/15

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8160/65, offers 0.8185/90 and 0.8215/20

EUR/JPY: Tech support tankan line at 106.31 and 106.15/20 (106.17 Apr 18 low), Offer 106.85/95 and 107.20/30

USD/JPY:  Bids 80.95/05 from Japanese banks, sell stops just below and again through 80.80. Offers 81.50/60

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0300/10 from sovereigns and option players, sell stops down through 1.0295. More bids 1.0265/75. Offers 1.0345/50 Tech lvl 200 day MA at 1.0371, more offers from 1.0385/00 and stronger up at 1.0415/20

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9145/50, 0.9190/95 and 0.9215/20. Bids 0.9095/00

EUR/CHF: Offers 1.2025/30 and 1.2040/50. Bids 1.2010/15 (tech supp 1.2013-200 day MA and 1.2000/05 (SNB/peg). Offers 1.2020/25 and 1.2030/35

USD/CAD: offers 1.0000/10 Bids 0.9895/05, talk of fund related bids 0.9885/95

NZD/USD: Sell stops through 0.8100, tech support below at 200 day MA at 0.8081

Hasn’t been confirmed, and bounce looks a little unconvincing at the moment, after lows of  1.3134 recently

We’re presently sitting at 1.3150

• Spain’s economy faces downside risks

Looks like it don’t it…….

ITALY DATA: April SA consumer confidence fell to 89.0 from 96.3 in
March, hitting the lowest level since the January 1996 series start,
ISTAT said. The drop was the result of worsening sentiment across all
components, with sharp declines in consumers’ sentiment on the general
economic climate and future outlook, and worsening expectations for
unemployment. Consumers’ sentiment on the economic climate fell to
72.1 from 85.4; confidence in the future outlook fell to 76.6 from 86.3;
and sentiment on the current climate dropped to 96.7 from 102.6, ISTAT
said.

UGHHHH

Demonstrably lower than March read of 96.3 and Reuters median forecast of 96.5.

Lowest read since series began in January 1996.

Consumer PMI (flash)
Morale – April -
– April mfg svc

Median Forecast 87 47.5 50.2
High forecast 93 48.1 51.0
Low forecast 85 45.0 49.0
Previous period 87 46.7 50.1
-
Number of responses 12 5 5
-
ABN AMRO 86 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 88 48.0 50.8
Berenberg Bank 87 n/a n/a
BNP Paribas 87 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 88 47.5 51.0
Credit Agricole 88 n/a n/a
DZ Bank 93 45.0 49.0
ING 85 n/a n/a
Lloyds Bank n/a 47.1 50.2
Morgan Stanley 85 n/a n/a
Natixis 87 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 87 48.1 50.1
West LB 88 n/a n/a

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, March 23.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Down from 49.1 in March,  some way weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 49.3.

5-month low.

EUR/USD been down at 1.3137, presently 1.3142.

Talk of more sell stops now through 1.3130.

UPDATE:   Seems 1.3136 in the 10 dma, for what that’s worth.

ANOTHER UPDATE:  Dutch 5 year CDS 13 bps wider at 132 bps.

Down from -2.6 in March.

Hardly surprising given what’s going on there.

Down from March final read of 48.4 and some way below Reuter’s median forecast of 49.0.

Fastest contraction since July 2009.  Something of a shocker!!

April services PMI 52.6, up from final March read of 52.1 and very marginally stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 52.3.

Data has fuelled extension of EUR/USD sell-off, presently at new session low of 1.3144.

Down at 81.15 from the 81.30 which greeted me first thing.  Slightly pressured by the general risk off backdrop with the risk barometer EUR/JPY cross down at 106.85 from around 107.35 first thing.

Benchmark 10 year treasury yield, as you’d expected given general risk aversion, lower at 1.9385% from 1.9629% I noted first thing.

Talk of some sell stops now through 81.10 in USD/JPY.

Now at 70 bps from 61 first thing.

Widest in 3 years!!!  Oooooooh I say…..

EUR/USD new session low at 1.3157.

Terribly orderly ain’t it. Well in the forex markets at least.

Up from final 46.7 in March, pretty much in line with Reuter’s median forecast of 47.2

Flash services PMI 46.4, down from final 50.1 in March and weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 50.2.

European stocks meanwhile coming under accelerated pressure, DAX down over 1.0% at -1.3%

Stoxx Europe banking index down -1.2%.

EUR/USD has made it down to new session low 1.3161.  Grease-lightning!!!!!!  Yer right

From the 61 I jotted down first thing.

Given the political uncertainty it’s hardly surprising.

Aforementioned stops done through 1.3175 in EUR/USD and we’re at session low 1.3165.

Plan to issue 3.0 bln of a new 12 month Bubill maturing April 24 2013

You’d expect it should go well.

Results due soon after 09:30 GMT.

FRANCE DATA: April mfg sentiment 95 vs March 98 (96)
– Below expected; MNI analysts survey median forecast 96
– Execs’ own-company outlook -4 vs March +8 (+6)
– Sector production outlook -14 vs March -15
– See MNI MainWire for details

Down from upwardly revised 98 (prev 96)

We’re feeling better about things…..no wait we’re not.  Strange data.