Up from 21.2% in December

Joe has just reminded me it’s Friday the 13th tomorrow!!!

Be afraid, be VERY afraid

EUR/USD down again at 1.3105, just ahead of the Italian auction results. 

Buy orders as aforementioned clustered down at 1.3090/00, sell stops through 1.3090 and more through 1.3080.  

LONDON (MNI) – Interest rates on UK mortgages nudged higher in
March, in some cases hitting levels not seen since mid-2010 or late
2009, according to Bank of England data.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expecting a
boost to consumption as the squeeze on real incomes eases due to
declining inflation but these data suggest mortgage repayments will add
to pressure on household finances.

The average interest rate on a tracker mortgage climbed to 3.6% in
March from 3.5% in February, its highest level since July 2010.

On a 2 year discounted mortgage at 75% loan-to-value the average
interest rate rose to 3.25% in March from 3.23% in the previous month,
the highest level since December 2009.

The average rate on a standard variable mortgage nudged up to 4.13%
from 4.12%, although this rate was lower than the 4.16% seen in January.

— London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

Feb preliminary: +0.5% m/m, -1.8% y/y

MNI survey median: -0.2% m/m, -1.6% y/y
MNI survey range: -1.0% to +0.6% m/m

January revision: flat m/m (+0.2%)
December revision: -0.9% m/m (-1.1%)
November: -0.4% m/m
October revision: flat m/m (+0.1%)
September: -2.6% m/m
–

PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone industry output surprised on the upside in
February, as a surge in energy production offset declines in most other
sectors, Eurostat said Thursday.

Taking into account the downward revision for January, the 0.5%
monthly upturn still left output some 10% below pre-crisis peaks and
two-month results 0.6% below the 4Q average.

As temperatures plunged in February, energy output spiked up 7.7%
for a 3.6% rise on the year. Capital goods output recovered 0.7%,
retracing less than half the slide since November for a 0.8% annual
gain. Intermediate goods output fell back 1.4% after a 0.6% upturn in
January and was 4.5% lower on the year. Consumer durables were down 2.0%
on the month and non-durables down 1.6%, giving annual declines of 6.4%
and 5.3%, respectively.

After a timid recovery through February, leading indicators for
Eurozone industry have taken a turn for the worst, reflecting the trend
in the larger economies apart from Italy.

Manufacturers polled by the European Commission in March reported
weaker domestic demand and were more pessimistic about near-term
production prospects. The factory PMI fell back 1.3 points in March to
47.7 as output contracted (48.7), new orders fell faster (45.4) and
order backlogs were depleted (45.2).

Fiscal tightening within the Eurozone, tougher borrowing conditions
and the retrenchment in public investment should continue to weigh on
domestic demand in the months ahead.

The latest joint projections by the national statistics institutes
of France and Italy and the leading private think tank in Germany
foresee Eurozone industry production dropping 0.7% in 1Q and 0.2% in 2Q.

German industry output dipped 0.2% in February and was 0.1% lower
on the year. Only capital and energy bucked the trend, national data
show. While the dynamism of foreign demand has been waning,
manufacturing orders from outside the Eurozone bounced back 5.0% in
February and firms continue to expect support from exports in the months
ahead, Ifo’s surveys show.

In France, output edged up 0.2% on the month, as a surge in energy
offset declines in most manufacturing branches here as well. Compared to
the previous-year level, output was down 1.3%. Leading indicators are
mixed. While the factory PMI plunged to a three-year low of 46.7 in
March, manufacturers polled by Insee were much more sanguine about
near-term prospects. The Bank of France estimated this week that
industry activity improved in March, but expected little further
expansion in the near term.

In Spain, production fell 0.5% in February after a 0.2% downturn in
January to end up 5.1% lower on the year. The PMI polls have been
sliding deeper into contraction territory since the start of the year
and production expectations fell back to a four-month low in March,
according to the Commission’s survey.

No data for Italy were released. While orders have been on a gentle
downward trend over the past six months, producers surveyed by Istat in
March hoped for an upturn in demand and output in the short term. The
factory PMI has recovered very gradually since October to 47.9 in March.

In other reporting countries, monthly production declines ranged
from 4.6% in Malta, 3.2% in Ireland and 2.3% in Greece to gains of 2.1%
in Finland, 2.8% in Slovakia and 13.0% in the Netherlands. Annual
comparisons gave increases only in Estonia (+1.3%), the Netherlands
(+6.7%) and Slovakia (+8.4%). The steepest annual declines were in
Greece (-8.5%), Malta (-11.4%) and Luxembourg (-14.4%).

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: ssandelius@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$XDS$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,MTABLE]

EMU DATA: February industry output sa +0.5% m/m, wda -1.8% y/y
– EMU February industry output m/m above MNI median fcast (-0.2%)
– EMU January ind. output rev to flat m/m, -1.7% y/y (+0.2%/-1.2%)
– EMU January+February industry output -0.6% vs 4q avg; 4q -2.0% q/q
– EMU February 3mm avg (December-February:November-January) -0.2% after
January -0.5%
– See MNI MainWire for details

USGS report another sizeable quake this morning  in the Gulf of California, magnitude 6.9 with a depth of  6.4 miles.

The quake was  82 miles NE of Guerrero Negro, Baja California.

On a cheerier note Gerry told me how lovely the weather was in Suffolk last night so i crept up there to have a look for myself….

What i saw shocked me when i caught Gerry unawares!…… guess it’s all that living in the wilds

Better on a monthly basis but in line on the y/y.

EU Jan IP revised to flat m/m from +0.2% and -1.7% y/y from -1.2%

Little reaction in the market with EUR sitting around 1.3125

Here’s the latest ECB monthly bulletin for you to read.

–Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 0831 GMT

LONDON (MNI) – A sharp fall in exports to non-EU countries in
February, in part due to the reversal of a surge in car exports in
January, drove the UK’s global goods trade deficit wider.

The global goods trade deficit expanded to Stg8.772 billion in
February from Stg7.883 billion in January, far wider than analysts’
median forecast for a Stg7.6 billion outturn. The key factor was the
Stg1.1 billion, or 8.8%, fall on the month in exports to non-EU
countries.

National Statistics cited lower exports of cars, down Stg0.4
billion on the month, capital goods, down Stg0.3 billion and
intermediate goods. The fall in car exports was particularly marked to
China, Russia and the US and the monthly fall, in value terms, was the
largest on record.

The monthly decline in car exports appears to be simply a reversal
of the spike in automobile exports in January. Car exports in January
rose to Stg2.2 billion, up Stg0.5 billion on the month, with National
Statistics saying most of the rise was in exports to China, Russia and
the US. The January monthly rise was the largest on record.

“I think we are seeing an unwinding of that this month,” a National
Statistics official said.

Oil exports rose to Stg3.607 billion from January’s Stg3.503
billion.

The EU 27 deficit narrowed to Stg3.755 billion in February from
Stg4.166 billion in January, with exports rising to Stg13.126 billion
from Stg12.876 billion.

The total trade gap widened to Stg3.396 billion from January’s
Stg2.501 billion.

–London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$BDS$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

LONDON (MNI) – A sharp fall in exports to non-EU countries in
February, in part due to the reversal of a surge in car exports in
January, drove the UK’s global goods trade deficit wider.

The global goods trade deficit expanded to Stg8.772 billion in
February from Stg7.883 billion in January, far wider than analysts’
median forecast for a Stg7.6 billion outturn. The key factor was the
Stg1.1 billion, or 8.8%, fall on the month in exports to non-EU
countries.

National Statistics cited lower exports of cars, down Stg0.4
billion on the month, capital goods, down Stg0.3 billion and
intermediate goods. The fall in car exports was particularly marked to
China, Russia and the US.

The monthly fall in car exports appears to be simply a reversal of
the spike in automobile exports in January. Car exports in January rose
to Stg2.2 billion, up Stg0.5 billion on the month, with National
Statistics saying most of the rise was in exports to China, Russia and
the US. The January monthly rise was the largest on record.

“I think we are seeing an unwinding of that this month,” a National
Statistics official said.

Oil exports rose to Stg3.607 billion from January’s Stg3.503
billion.

The EU 27 deficit narrowed to Stg3.755 billion in February from
Stg4.166 billion in January, with exports rising to Stg13.126 billion
from Stg12.876 billion.

The total trade gap widened to Stg3.396 billion from January’s
Stg2.501 billion.

–London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$BDS$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Feb global goods trade deficit stg8.772b vs stg7.883b Jan
–UK Feb Non-EUUgoods trade deficit stg5.017b vs stg3.717b Jan
–UK Feb Total trade deficit stg3.396b vs stg2.501b Jan
————————————————————————
A sharp fall in exports to non-EU countries in February, in
part due to the reversal of a surge in car exports in January,
drove the UK’s global goods trade deficit wider. The global goods trade
deficit expanded to Stg8.772 billion in February from Stg7.883 billion
in January, far wider than analysts’ median forecast for a Stg7.6
billion outturn. The key factor was the Stg1.1 billion, or 8.8%, fall on
the month, in exports to non-EU countries.

• Markets are very nervous but we are not worried by day by day BTP/bund spread volatility (he’s such a cool cucumber)
• “We cannot talk about a derby between Italy and Spain” (watch it!!!, remember what loose lips do)

Oh look everybody, EUR/USD is at 1.3130 (exactly where it was when I started, hooray!!!!)

Those stops are now a million and one miles away…….

Larger than expected -£7.7 bln, but cable’s running higher on the headline , but stalls just ahead of stops set on a break of 1.5955

Non-EU goods trade balance -£5.017 bln from revised Jan -£3.717bln, and  above market median of -£3.85 bln

Nearby ones include:

USD/JPY: 81.00, 81.45, 81.50, 82.00

AUD/JPY: 84.50

USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9095

EUR/USD: 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3050, 1.3105, 1.3120, 1.3150, 1.3170 and 1.3175

GBP/USD: 1.5905

EUR/GBP: 0.8320

All for the  1000 NY/1500BST cut

• Falling Spanish houses prices may affect banks (noooooo, really?)
• Spain worst in class in Europe for growth (what was Rajoy saying yesterday about loose lips)

Loose lips sink ships!!!!

Button it Oystein!!!

• Has reduced growth expectations among Norway’s trading partners

Good morning all…

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3090/00, sell stops below and again down through 1.3080 ahead of more bids 1.3050/60. Offers 1.3145/50 (talk BIS on offer earlier)

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5900/10 (option expiry 1.5905). Offers 1.5935/45 ahead of stops 1.5950/55 and tech res above at 1.5960/65

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8220/25 (0.8220 2012 low). Offers 0.8275/80

USD/JPY: Offers 81.00/15 from real money, exporters. Buy stops up through 81.20 Bids 80.50/60 (BOJ/semi officials), sell stops just below.

EUR/JPY:  Tech resistance 106.65/70, buy stops above through 107.00. Bids from 105.95/00, tech support around 200dma at 105.83, sell stops down through 105.80 ahead of more bids 105.45/50

AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0395/05, rumoured stops above ahead of tech res 1.0415 (100dma). Bids 1.0340/50 and sell stops through 1.0320.

USD/CHF: Tech support 0.9130 (55dma), Bids 0.9100/10. Offers 0.9200/10, tech res 0.9232 (100dma)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000 (SNB and 200dma) and 1.1995. Rumoured sell stops down through 1.1990. Offers 1.2025/30, 1.2045/50

USD/CAD: Offers 1.0050/60 and 1.0075/85, Bids 0.9960 down to 0.9930

• ECB sees inflation in line with price stability in medium term
• Inflation to stay above 2% this year with upside risks
• Moderate economic recovery subject to downside risks

We’ve slipped to 1.3105 at writing,  the boys from Basle having capped earlier rally attempt at 1.3150.

Talk now has sell stops through both 1.3090 and 1.3080.  Seems like a million miles away

Reuters reporting.

What is going on with all these earthquakes?

• Does not see any need for additional capital for Irish banks
• Baseline scenario is that Ireland can return to bond markets in the next year

Some encouraging news, to be sure

EUR/USD sits at 1.3135.

Caaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!

FRANCE DATA: Feb current account deficit widened to E5.0 bln from E4.4
bln in Jan (revised from -E4.2 bln)
- Bigger merchandise goods shortfall (-E6.6 bln vs -E5.8 bln) and
- Smaller revenues surplus (+E2.6 bln vs +E3.1 bln) offset
- Larger services surplus (+E1.3 bln vs +E0.7 bln).
- Transfers deficit stable (-E2.3 bln)